Food metabolism and potentiality Food shed City regionClosely linked cities Now to 2050 Demand need, wants, nutrition sufficiency production Climate change NRM Resiliency – diversity of cropping systems How these impact 2050 potential All benefit Connecting tissue, the ‘metabolism’ within/among region Eco-based agriculture (aware of trade-offs and Objectives) May vary from place To place Identify entry points to bend The system Now- how ‘bend’ the system OVERLAY: Equity Food security Sustainability Resiliency Tools GIS; systems modelling Pop. Demographics; ‘big data’ – soils, production Sales, climate to 2050 CIAT – climate change proj.; scenarios for ag prod; env. services data (esp. LA) How urbanization changes Connect to other group ? In deep sustainability Sense – where should Cities be; what Systems ‘best’ for area Including waste Criteria for selection: 1.Data sources 2.Potential responsive public sector; Private sector, civil society 3.Institutional interest (both within Our group and location) 4.Comparative – and comparable – Continuum (population; Change) ?’s -what does already exist; can we piggyback with anything already happening?; users of outputs – including private sector? inclusion e.g. incubators, economic development, livelihoods Feed into ‘private sector’ (maybe publically Held) Type Extent demographics Gradients of need & Opportunity across globe: Continuum from urbanizing Rural areas to megacities Sustainable gradient Across globe Where? Brainstorm possible -Latin America – Cali -W.Africa – Nigeria -E. Africa – Llilongwe -Asia – Cambodia(?) Need comparative work Research Frontiers -scenario development -’bending the curve’ -build repeatable methods -decision support tools: public private

The Overarching Issue To build understanding and knowledge of sustainable and equitable food systems in a rapidly urbanizing world, recognizing the role of urban center and its actors and resources and fostering engagement and innovation that builds on this knowledge.

Research Questions: What potential exists within urbanizing regions to feed the population with ecological agriculture now and in 2050? MSU CRFS CIAT RIMISP What is the range of enabling livelihoods if regional production were optimized? MSU CRFS, MSU GCFSI What are strategies for ‘bending the curve’ of potential in 2050 from ‘business as usual’ trends? CIAT, CRFS, MSU GCFSI, IGES, FAO Can a repeatable methodology be developed to allow this analysis in urbanizing regions across the globe? CIAT, MSU CRFS, CEPAL What decision support tools would aid various sectors of society in maintaining options for enabling ‘universal food security’ within their region using analyses derived from this research? MSU GCFSI, CEPAL, IGES, FAO

Governance, logistics, and planning Problem: Lack of regulatory instruments and methodology to envision and create sustainable and equitable access to safe and healthy food systems. Improve access to safe and healthy food to all citizens by integrating governance, logistics and planning through effective regulatory, policy instruments and consumer engagement. Regulatory, and socio-economic and spatial dynamics appraisal of city access to food (mapping food systems within boundaries)(framework) – Postharvest: Understand losses within urban boundaries and understand the use of the loss/waste – What opportunities are there for post-harvest improvements in the urban context, taking into account the varying degrees of capacity, resources, scales in the various aspects of the distribution system…so that post-harvest interventions are appropriately scaled and directed?

Governance, logistics, and planning Problem: How to adapt the physical infrastructure (roads, food centers, urban population growth, water systems) to cope with the food needs of the future situation? – Postharvest: If we are successful in changing to healthy diets, is the city infrastructure in place to continue aiming at reducing postharvest losses? And, What need to be done parallel to the changes (besides investment in infrastructure, short chains?)? How to create an enabling environment for a diversity of market and “food centers” scales/type if that better addresses consumer needs and concerns? (Procurement models for consumers) – Postharvest: Can we improve the use of potentially qualitative-to-quantitative losses by promoting existence high diversity of markets How to support and enable innovative processes and arrangements for sustainable food production and delivery (green logistics, nano food, short circuits and other forms) – Postharvest: How to promote and what is its cost (of research and outreach national models) for promoting innovation of value added products and processes.

Consumer Behavior in Urbanizing Food Supply Chains How does consumer risk perception / WTP change as cities develop-urbanize? How does consumer diet+health change as cities develop-urbanize? How reducing food waste in the urbanizing food supply chain can contribute to healthier diets?

To build understanding and knowledge of sustainable and equitable food systems in a rapidly urbanizing world, recognizing the role of urban center and its actors and resources and fostering engagement and innovation that builds on this knowledge. ThemeRationale Regional Food System Potential and Food Flow There is a lack of understanding and a repeatable rubric for assessing the ability of regions to provide food to their respective cores. Governance, Logistics, and Planning Planning and food logistics from farm to table are potentially powerful tools in creating sustainable and equitable access to food in a variety of market contexts. Currently, There is a lack of regulatory instruments and methods to envision and create sustainable and equitable production and access to safe and healthy food systems through effective logistics and planning. Consumer Behavior in Urbanizing Food Supply Chains Understanding consumer preference, culture, history and perception play critical roles in designing systems that create, process and distribute safe and nutritious food.