January 2003 Permafrost modeling in the Mackenzie River valley: transient aspects of climate change Researchers: F. Wright, C. Duchesne, M. Côté, M. Nixon and E. Roberts Natural Resources Canada Geological Survey of Canada

January 2003 Research objectives  To acquire and synthesize fundamental permafrost- engineering field data.  To develop analytical and numerical methods describing climate-driven transient aspects of the ground thermal regime.  To apply GIS-based analysis techniques to generate predictions of the time-dependent responses of permafrost to climate change scenarios at local and regional scales.

January 2003 Area of interest

January 2003 Impact/Relevance  Support engineering design of proposed oil/gas production and delivery systems.  Enhanced capability for:  terrain evaluation  project planning  route selection  Improved knowledge-base for development of adaptation strategies and/or remedial measures.

January 2003 Conceptual model of climate-permafrost relations  Assume dominance of conductive heat transfer processes  The influence of snow cover is implicit in the buffer layer  Assumes a uniform substrate

January 2003 Data sources Vegetation Cover: N-factors & Moisture content Surficial Geology: Thermal conductivities Interpolated mean annual air temperature: DDT & DDF

January 2003 Equilibrium distribution of permafrost Baseline climate2°C warming4°C warming

January 2003 Transient aspect of ground thermal response 200 years ?? 30 years ??  Timing of the ground thermal response to climate change depends on the physical and thermal characteristics of the terrain:  Insulating properties of vegetation and snow cover  Thermal conductivity and heat capacity  Frozen water content  Finite-element modeling can be used to generate time-dependent predictions of climate change on ground thermal conditions.

January 2003 Site scale investigation  Degree to which ground temperature profiles diverge from an ideal state of equilibrium  Consistency between different sites with respect to this divergence  Establishment of input values for initial and boundary conditions

January 2003 GIS-based transient modeling solution Time-dependant GIS-based outputs: Stand-alone finite-element ground thermal model is linked to the GIS at both the model input and output stages. GIS inputs:

January 2003 Identification of terrain impacts  Magnitude of the expected impacts controlled by the physical and thermal properties of the sediments.  Evaluation of model predictions of changes in ground thermal state vs potential impacts on terrain:  Relating expected temperature changes to temperature- dependent sensitivities of different terrain types.  Relation of excess ice content and sediment compactability to subsidence potential.

January 2003 Users and partners  Engineering firms: Colt Geomatic Solutions Ltd  preparation for pipeline engineering in the Mackenzie Valley  Territorial government departments: DOT, RWED  Support associated transportation routes  Territorial organisations : MVLWB  Information base to support policy development and decision-making  Federal government: CCRS, Northern POL  Integrated Assessment Model on Climate Change: impact of permafrost change on the carbon balance  Geocomplexity of Mackenzie Beaufort Hydrocarbon Development Region

January 2003 Summary of goals  Completed:  GSC steady-state model of permafrost characteristics  Database development at a regional scale  Analysis and synthesis of field data  GIS input interface for the transient model  In progress:  Database development at a local scale  GIS output interface for the transient model  Impact assessment, predicting permafrost changes in 30, 50 and 100 year time frames, at both local and regional scales