DRR workshop WMO Commission for Hydrology Geneva 10 -14 June 2013 Ann Calver 1.

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Presentation transcript:

DRR workshop WMO Commission for Hydrology Geneva June 2013 Ann Calver 1

Hydrological setting Hydrological extremes are plainly crucial – floods and droughts; and overall hydrological characterisation is also important in terms of background to other hazards Risks are to health and safety, water and food supply, mobility, power and industrial functioning, environmental concerns Hydrological disasters have both fast and slow run-in times, and recovery times vary; sequences of events can be important 2 source: Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection

3 Hydrological domain is one where intervention is possible to a degree; it has the challenge of being a multi-use and time- varying domain Better strategic planning is likely to reduce operational time- of-disaster stress Risk management in hydrology is often less dependent on other regions/nations than in the case of atmospheric risks: this has an impact on the degree of need for standardisation of data/approach Hydrological setting - continued source: M Bramley groundwater

4 Key drought risk activities Monitoring development of conditions Analysing drought severity / drought frequency estimation / development of drought indices Prediction of droughts

5 Key flood risk activities Short-term flood forecasting Longer term flood frequency estimation Inundation extent Specific aspects eg. urban flooding, groundwater floods

6 Further hydrological involvement Heavy snow Tropical cyclone Coastal flooding Landslide / mudslide Rapid melting of glaciers Waterborne hazards – characterisation of hydrology and hydrogeology source: VLWRC groundwater flow paths potential contaminant pathways

7 Commission for Hydrology documents Technical Regulations, volume III: Hydrology 2006 Manuals (see next slide) [ International Glossary of Hydrology – with UNESCO ] Guidelines / guidance material especially the Guide to Hydrological Practices 2008 Technical documents (see next but one slide)

8 Commission for Hydrology documents - continued

9 Various technical reports Various reports from operational hydrology series CHy XIII Annex 1 to resolution 1: A quality management framework in hydrology Technical material for water resources assessment Climate and information requirements for water management

10 A few short examples of how in practice hydrology assesses disaster risk and the data and techniques involved © RAF Benson

Real-time river flood ensemble forecasting 11 source: UK Met Office & NERC based on precipitation forecasts and data, with catchment hydrological modelling calibrated on past river flow data record precipitationriver flows

12 Flood inundation extents sources: Environment Agency England & Wales; UK Department of Trade and Industry based on long river flow records, statistical analyses, hydraulic modelling and (right) socioeconomic scenarios and land use data

Projecting river flow for drought development awareness 13 source: Environment Agency, England based on river flow records, catchment precipitation, catchment hydrological modelling calibrated on past records

14 Long-term drought frequencies source: European Environment Agency based on climate projections, catchment data and hydrological modelling, statistical analyses Relative change in minimum river flow with return period of 20 years compared with recent drought extents

15 Some key cross-cutting issues Hydrological modelling Data-sparse areas Uncertainty / robustness / error evaluation Quality management Non-stationarity Information transfer source: DHI

CONCLUDING REMARKS Level to which hydrological risks are currently managed varies greatly world-wide and with the specific risk – this is in part a function of assessment abilities Both standard and non-standard data and methods are used in hydrological risk assessment; suites of hydrological standards may be more appropriate than single standards Realistic aim: world-wide awareness by practitioners of the range of available hydrological techniques and, at a different level, by those needing to use hydrological information to reduce disaster risk 16 further information: