The End of Rick Perry

Office Hours When – Today – Monday 10-2 Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

CAMPAIGN MISTAKES

Spending Time in New Hampshire He had no chance here He wasted Time and Money Unnecessary distractions Unnecessary distractions

Punching Down Perry Believed that you never leave an attack unanswered No one attacks Ron Paul This was a novice mistake

Policy Mistakes The 26 th Amendment The 26 th Amendment The War in IranIran Sonia Motomayor?Motomayor? Going after BernankeBernanke

DEBATE MISTAKES

The Role of Debates A Chance to See All Candidates on the Same Stage Who is Advantaged? Who is disadvantaged? Criticisms

Perry’s Debate Problem Debates are not a big deal in Texas He didn’t debate Bill White in 2010 He hated practicing and preparing for them

Perry’s First Debate (California) Started Strong Attacked on Many Fronts Withered out by the end

Debate Flubs Perry’s mouth would be scrutinized and publicized in a way that, as governor, he had never experienced. Often incoherent Flip-Flopping Flop

Perry’s Best Moment The 10,000 Bet

The Impact of the Debates Usually Started strong and faltered By the 4 th debate he had fallen 20 points and trailed Herman Cain

Oops

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOUR CAMPAIGN CRUMBLES?

Rehabbing the Image

Fundraising Dries up An initial burst followed by nothing Mostly from Texas Perry did not want to fundraise.

Changing the Staff Perry was persuaded by unemployed Gingrich staffers They try to shake up the campaign by bringing in D.C. operatives The New People call the old People Texas Rubes and each point fingers.

The Invisible Primary ends

One Month Before Iowa

Rules of the Nominating Game Just Like Vegas, Never play a game you don’t know how to play

Rules of the Game: Amassing Delegates

Rules of the Game: Primaries Work Like Mini-elections Much More common than in years past

Rules of the Game: Caucuses Held at a specific time and place May last for Hours They Feature a Different Kind of Electorate than primaries

Rules of the Game: Pledged Delegates Required to vote for their candidate More than 80% of all Delegates Republicans Rely more heavily on these

Rules of the Game: Allocation Winner Take All Proportional Representation

Rules of the Game: Unpledged Delegates Once the Norm, rather than the exception RNC DNC PLEO’s – Reasons Why – Historical Role

Rules of the Game: Frontloading The movement of state primaries and caucuses earlier and earlier in the campaign season The Impact of Frontloading

THE LESSONS OF 2008 John McCain and the Republicans

Delegate Apportionment in 2008 The Democrats More Delegates Proportional Representation Super Delegates The Republicans Fewer Delegates More winner-take-all states

The Advantage of the Long Democratic Campaign for Obama Scrutiny Kept him in the News Tested his leadership Made the party enthusiastic

How Mc Cain Wins Early: 2008 Winner-take-all states The Early win is A blessing and a curse for McCain

Benefits of the Early McCain Victory Cost savings Refocus Campaign Strategy Avoids additional party infighting

Costs of the McCain victory Never shores up the Evangelicals Too reliant on unreliable independents Out of the news for 5 months

THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Obama Wins! No serious challenger He could focus on being President He didn’t have to spend money

THE 2012 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

Frontloading and 2012 Take a Page from the Democratic Playbook The GOP require more states use proportional representation Punish early movers They did not want an early nominee.

Frontloading and 2012

The First Four in 2012 Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina Florida

These Rules Were Intended to Extend the Nomination, which it did…. But it also brought unintended consequences!