Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina Jason Caldwell South Carolina State Climatology.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

How Well Forecast Were the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic and U. S

Advertisements

Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting June 2005.

Jeopardy U. S. Geography Q 1 Q 6 Q 11 Q 16 Q 21 Q 2 Q 7 Q 12 Q 17 Q 22

1 How does relief affect temperature? 2 Hurricanes are associated with which type of pressure?

2010 East Pacific Hurricane Season John Cangialosi and Stacy Stewart National Hurricane Center 2011 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida.

Warren R. Snyder Science & Operations Officer WFO, Albany, New York.

2004 Hurricane Response NDMS Prepared for MMRS 2005 Conference Homeland Security & Mass Casualty Preparedness By Gary Lindberg, FEMA Emergency Operations.

Flash Flood Climatology for the Goodland County Warning Area 13 th High Plains Conference August 27, 2009.

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University National Hurricane Conference March.

Barry D. Keim Louisiana State Climatologist Louisiana State University Hurricane History of the Gulf and East Coast of the U.S.

Serial clustering of US hurricane landfalls

“A Study of Causes Behind the Heavy Rainfall Amounts From Tropical Storm Allison” Paul Lewis National Weather Service WFO Houston/Galveston Contact information:

The Christmas Day Snowstorm of 2002 Meteorology 361 presentation.

An Examination of the Tropical System – Induced Flooding in Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania in 2004.

Surface Currents (ocean) Affect water to a depth of several hundred meters Driven by winds Move in circular patterns in 5 major oceans. Because of Coriolis.

Geographic Regions.

Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State.

Weather Discussion August 30 th through September 1, 2011.

United States & Canada Unit 2 – Physical Characteristics.

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University National Tropical Weather Conference.

Eastern United States By Elisa Lawson Laxmi Rodulfo.

Gray’s Forecasting Method Hurricane Notes, Part 2 ATS 553.

HURRICANES The History, Structure, Development, and Destruction Source:

Applied Meteorology Unit 1 Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida.

Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 1 October 20, 2004 Overview of 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ed Szoke* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory Forecast Research.

Hurricane Case Studies. Outline North Atlantic Caribbean Gulf of Mexico Atlantic Coast Pacific Bangladesh.

Measuring gaps in tropical cyclone rainbands using Level II radar reflectivity data Corene Matyas Department of Geography, University of Florida Funding:

Hurricane Irene Briefing 830 AM Wed Aug 24, 2011 Rob Molleda National Weather Service Miami/South Florida Forecast Office.

Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks Dr. Gerald Bell Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Climate Prediction Center 27 May 2008 Archive of past outlooks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF 2O10 ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORM SEASON NOVEMBER 30 th WAS THE LAST DAY OF WHAT IS NOW A SEASON TIED WITH 1995 AS THE 2 ND MOST ACTIVE.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2006 Matt Huddleston With thanks to: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Ruth McDonald & Met Office Seasonal forecasting team 14 th March.

2010 AMS Effect of changes in GCM resolution on the connection between summertime precipitation, moisture flux, and the position of the Bermuda High Laura.

North America: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY

Physical Regions of North America

Tropical Cyclones in IFS and NICAM Julia V. Manganello Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (Many thanks to Kevin Hodges!) Athena Workshop, 7-8 June.

Geography in the Southeast. Lower Region  Beaches  Swamps  Wetlands  Great Dismal Swamp in south of Virginia and northern part of North Carolina 

The Hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 Record Breaking Back-to-Back Seasons.

Overview of Predictions/Monitoring of 2004 Hurricanes A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA.

Southeast States Virginia Atlantic Coast Gulf Coast Inland South.

What region would you most likely find the land looking like this?

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 22, 2005.

North Carolina Climate

The Jet Stream and Our Weather

Reconciling droughts and landfalling tropical cyclones in the southeastern US Vasu Misra and Satish Bastola Appeared in 2015 in Clim. Dyn.

CLIMATE OF WNC: TRENDS & HISTORY Jake Crouch October 13, 2014 NOAA’S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER.

Air Masses and Fronts. Air Mass: – An air mass is a huge body of air that has similar temperature, humidity, and air pressure at any given height. – Air.

Maritza De La Luz. Category One: Winds from 119 to 153 km (74 to 95 mi.) per hour. No damage to building structures. Some damage to construction signs.

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 6 Air-Sea Interaction.

By Sean Toms. Start of Katrina Hurricane Katrina developed first as a tropical depression in the southeastern Bahamas on August 23rd. Katrina strengthened.

What is a Hurricane ? Anatomy of a Hurricane What causes Hurricanes ? For Classroom lessons and hurricane information: SouthEast Atlantic.

Crashing the Timeline A Journal of Weather Interpretations and

Chapter 14: Cold Waves Formation of Cold Airmasses Cold Air Outbreak.

Tech to Tech Odyssey of a kid from Brooklyn Tech to Florida Tech

USGS Science in Support of Coastal Issues

Today’s Warm-Up Thursday 12/12

Hurricanes Structure, Development and Destruction

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola

A Presentation for Air Liquide By Climate Impact Company May 8, 2018

Who Wants to be a Geography Regions Millionaire?

From left to right: hurricane Isis, hurricane Javier (both E

Geographic Regions Review

Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, Ends November 30th,

Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

GLOBAL ALLIANCE FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

HURRICANES Source:

East of the Mississippi River

Southern Company Summer 2019 Outlook & Winter Review

Orographic Influences on Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclone

Presentation transcript:

Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina Jason Caldwell South Carolina State Climatology Office PAMS Mini-Technical Conference March 11, 2005

Atlantic Ocean Gulf of Mexico Appalachian Mountains Geographical Influences on Tropical Precipitation UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT MOISTURE SOURCE

TROPICAL STORM STEERING MECHANISMS SURFACE: Central Atlantic Sub-Tropical High Extends E-W with weakness SE US 500 MB: Westerly Flow East Coast Mid-Level Ridge over Central Atlantic 250 MB: Trough over Midwest and Great Lakes

SOUTH CAROLINA TROPICAL STORMS CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD ( ) TOTAL STORMS:145 PERIOD CONSIDERED: TOTAL :70 STORMS SELECTED TOTAL:54 STORMS

SELECTED TROPICAL STORM TRACKS AFFECTING SOUTH CAROLINA Division 1 Division 2 Division 3 Division 4 Division 5 Division 6 Division 7 Division 8

SITE SELECTION 20 DAILY SITES SPACING: km

DIVISION 1 Offshore Track Helene1958 Ginny 1963 Amy1975 Arthur STORMS

DIVISION 2 East Florida Landfall South Carolina Track Cleo1964 Dora1964 Dawn1972 ST David1979 Isidore1984 Chris1988 Jerry1995 Kyle STORMS

DIVISION 3 West Florida Landfall Offshore Track Donna1960 Gladys 1968 Dennis1981 Ana1991 Irene STORMS

DIVISION 4 Panhandle Florida Landfall Inland/Coastal Track TS Florence 1953 Flossy1956 TS Brenda1960 Alma1966 Alma1970 Agnes1972 Kate1985 Allison1995 Josephine1996 Earl1998 Gordon STORMS

DIVISION 5 Gulf Coast/Panhandle Landfall Track East of Appalachians Hilda1964 TS Babe1977 Marco1990 Helene STORMS

DIVISION 6 Gulf Coast/Panhandle Landfall Track West of Appalachians Danny1985 Andrew 1992 Alberto1994 Beryl STORMS

DIVISION 7 Direct Landfall South Carolina Able1952 TS Hazel1954 Cindy1959 Gracie1959 Hugo STORMS

DIVISION 8 Direct Landfall North Carolina Connie1955 Diane1955 Ione1955 TS Diana1984 Bertha1996 Bonnie1998 Floyd STORMS

Division 4 MeanObserved Precipitation TROPICAL STORM BONNIE * Used Panhandle/Inland-Coast Track (Division 4)

HURRICANE CHARLEY * Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7) Observed PrecipitationDivision 7 Mean

Observed PrecipitationDivision 6 Mean HURRICANE FRANCES * Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6)

Observed PrecipitationDivision 7 Mean HURRICANE GASTON * Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7)

Observed PrecipitationDivision 6 Mean HURRICANE IVAN * Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6)

Observed PrecipitationDivision 2 Mean HURRICANE JEANNE * E Florida/SC Track (Division 2)

BONNIE GASTON FRANCES JEANNEIVAN CHARLEY ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATOLOGY Observed – Climatology = ERRORS RANGE (over-predicted) to (under-predicted) AVERAGE ERROR (Camden) to (Calhoun Falls)

CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK UNDER-PREDICTS PRECIPITATION IN UPSTATE FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS & ALONG TRACK; OVER PREDICTION MORE SPORADIC ADDITIONAL STATIONS ADDED TO ACQUIRE MORE COMPLETE DISTRIBUTION (REMOVE WALTERBORO, CAMDEN) COMPARISON OF CLIMATOLOGY TO HPC FORECASTS PREPARATION OF MAX/MIN DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FLOOD FORECAST ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL WORK WITH SERFC STATISTICS, STATISTICS, STATISTICS …… 15 th CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (SAVANNAH, GA – JUNE 2005)