Norges Bank 1 Executive Board Meeting 22 September 2004

Norges Bank 2 Interest and exchange rate assumptions and projections for the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) and the output gap in Inflation Report 2/04. Per cent CPI-ATE Output gap Money market rate (right-hand scale) Source: Norges Bank Krone exchange rate, I-44 (left- hand scale) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 3 GDP growth Growth in volume from previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted Sources: EcoWin / US Dept. of Commerce, SCB, National Statistics, EUR-OP / EUROSTAT and Norges Bank Euro area Japan UK US Sweden

Norges Bank 4 Yields on 10-year government bonds 1 Jan 04 – 20 Sep 04 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank Norway Germany US Since previous monetary policy meeting

Norges Bank 5 PMI Manufacturing in the US 1), the euro area and Sweden. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures Sources: EcoWin / ISM-Institute for Supply Management, NTC Research Ltd. and Swedbank / I&L Euro areaSweden US 1) ISM, Manufacturing

Norges Bank 6 Core CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area and the UK 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Aug 04 Source: EcoWin / National statistics UK US 1) Euro area US 2) 1) CPI 2) Personal consumption expenditure deflator, excluding food and energy

Norges Bank 7 Interest rate expectations Actual developments and expected key rate on 20 September US Sweden Euro area UK Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 8 Oil price Brent Blend USD per barrel. Daily figures. Jan 02 – Jul 07 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 11 August Futures prices 24 June (IR 2-04) 16 September

Norges Bank 9 Real oil price in 2004 USD 1) and nominal oil price Deflated by US CPI. Monthly figures. Brent Blend in dollars per barrel Oil price in 2004 USD Nominal oil price 1) The nominal oil price is deflated by mean CPI in the US in the period Jan 04 – Jul 04 Sources: EcoWin / Bureau of Labor Statistics and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 10 CPI-ATE 12-month rise. Per cent. Jul 03 – Aug 04 Projections from Inflation Report 2/04 Jun 04 – Dec 04 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway Imported consumer goods CPI-ATE

Norges Bank 11 Expert projections of consumer price inflation Per cent. Quarterly figures. Q – Q In 2 years In 5 years Source: TNS Gallup

Norges Bank 12 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank Developments in the krone exchange rate 1) (I-44) Daily figures. 1 Jan 02 – 21 Sep 04 Since previous monetary policy meeting

Norges Bank 13 Expected change in key rates according to the swap market and expected difference against the mean of trading partners’ key rates. Sep 04 – Dec 06 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank 20 September 10 August Expected difference against the mean of trading partners’ key rates Expected key rate

Norges Bank 14 GDP Mainland Norway Change from previous quarter. Contribution to volume growth in percentage points. Seasonally adjusted Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank *Norges Bank estimates

Norges Bank 15 Main economic aggregates in quarterly national accounts and projections in Inflation Report 2/04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Annual growth 2004 Projections in IR 2/2004 Growth from first half-year in 2003 to first half-year in 2004 GDP Mainland Norway 3½3,7 Private consumption 5¼4,9 Gross investments Mainland Norway 3¾2,4 Petroleum investment 1011,6 Traditional exports 5¼2,5 Imports 7½6,0

Norges Bank 16 Index of commodity consumption 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume. Jan 02 – Jul Source: Statistics Norway 2002

Norges Bank 17 Estimated and accrued investment costs for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport In millions of NOK Source: Statistics Norway Previous yearCurrent yearFinal figures

Norges Bank 18 Employment (LFS) Seasonally adjusted. In 1000s Source: Statistics Norway 2004

Norges Bank 19 Registered unemployed and job vacancies Seasonally adjusted. Jan 98 – Aug 04 Job vacancies, trend (left-hand scale) Registered unemployed (right-hand scale) Source: The Directorate of Labour

Norges Bank 20 House prices NEF/ECON (Jan 98 – Aug 04) and SN (98 Q1 – 04 Q2) Percentage rise on same period previous year SN NEF Sources: Statistics Norway (SN), Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms

Norges Bank 21 Commercial property prices Price per m 2 per year in NOK – June 2004 Oslo high standards Oslo good standards Bergen Stavanger Trondheim Sources: OPAK and Dagens Næringsliv

Norges Bank 22 Housing starts and other building starts m 2 per month. Trend. Jan 00 – Jun 04 Source: Statistics Norway Housing starts (left-hand scale) Other building starts (right-hand scale)

Norges Bank 23 Domestic debt, total and distributed between households and non-financial enterprises (C2) 12-month rise. Aug 01 - Jul 04 C2 non-financial enterprises Source: Norges Bank C2 total C2 households

Norges Bank 24 Prices for imported consumer goods Total and selected groups. 12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Cars Clothing and footwear Imported consumer goods Audiovisual equipment Household appliances

Norges Bank 25 Prices for goods and services produced in Norway 12-month rise. Per cent Other services House rent Services with wages as a dominant factor Consumer goods produced in Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank