Institute of Transportation Studies Planning for Growth: Demographics, Employment, Housing, and Resources The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection October 14 th – October 16 th 2007 UCLA Extension Public Policy Program

Institute of Transportation Studies Planning for Growth: Symposium Overview Brian D. Taylor UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies Symposium Co-Chair

Institute of Transportation Studies The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning –Transportation –Land use –Environment

Institute of Transportation Studies The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning –Transportation –Land use –Environment Always interrelated, but all too often not well integrated

Institute of Transportation Studies The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning –Always interrelated, but all too often not well integrated This year we examine four additional, critical topics

Institute of Transportation Studies The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning –Always interrelated, but all too often not well integrated This year we examine four additional, critical topics –Demographics, employment, housing, and resources

Institute of Transportation Studies A challenging agenda Covering so many topical areas and their interrelationships allows for a more holistic exploration of growth and the quality of life

Institute of Transportation Studies A challenging agenda Covering so many topical areas and their interrelationships allows for a more holistic exploration of growth and the quality of life But at the price of covering each of these important topics in less depth than they otherwise deserve

Institute of Transportation Studies A challenging agenda Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics

Institute of Transportation Studies A challenging agenda Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics –Not to mention environmental issues, land use, or transportation

Institute of Transportation Studies A challenging agenda Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics –Not to mention environmental issues, land use, or transportation But the signature of the Arrowhead series is our focus on the linkages among these substantive areas of policy

Institute of Transportation Studies Linkages The Arrowhead Signature Linkages among… –Research and practice

Institute of Transportation Studies Linkages The Arrowhead Signature Linkages among… –Research and practice –Ideas and action

Institute of Transportation Studies Linkages The Arrowhead Signature Linkages among… –Research and practice –Ideas and action –Public and private sectors

Institute of Transportation Studies Linkages The Arrowhead Signature Linkages among… –Research and practice –Ideas and action –Public and private sectors –Markets and regulation

Institute of Transportation Studies Linkages The Arrowhead Signature Linkages among… –Research and practice –Ideas and action –Public and private sectors –Markets and regulation –Local and global

Institute of Transportation Studies Linkages The Arrowhead Signature Linkages among… –Research and practice –Ideas and action –Public and private sectors –Markets and regulation –Local and global –Development and conservation

Institute of Transportation Studies Linkages The Arrowhead Signature Linkages among… –Research and practice –Ideas and action –Public and private sectors –Markets and regulation –Local and global –Development and conservation –Transportation, land use, and environment

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game Plan: This session Global economic changes, local effects –The future of local employment, trade, and travel in an increasingly global economy Roger Stough, George Mason University –Panel Discussion Gloria Jeff, Transportation Professional Randall Lewis, Lewis Operating Corporation Scott Moore, Union Pacific Railroad

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game plan This Afternoon Exploring the land use and transportation implications of population growth and change in California and the West –Understanding population growth amidst environmental constraints: Who will be the new residents, and where will they live and work? Dowell Meyers, USC –Planning for the travel needs of growing youth and aging population Noreen McDonald, University of Virginia –Immigrants, location, and travel in California: Do the biggest impacts lie ahead? Evelyn Blumenberg, UCLA

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game plan This Evening Visioning Alternative Growth Futures: What (may) Lay Ahead? –How much land? How much housing? Forecasting the impacts of alternative futures of urban growth in U.S. John Landis, University of Pennsylvania –Visioning alternative futures in the Sacramento region Mike McKeever, SACOG

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game plan Tomorrow Morning Thirst for Growth: Water Politics and Policy –Panel Discussion on Watering the West: The future of water supply in growing, drought-prone regions – implications for transportation, land use, and the environment John Wise, formerly of the US EPA Tim Quinn, Association of California Water Agencies Spreck Rosekrans, Environmental Defense

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game plan Tomorrow, Late Morning Powering Growth: Environmental constraints on electrical power production in the years ahead –On the grid: Planning future power generation to accommodate growth Frank Wolak, Stanford University –Green growth, green policy I: Innovative efforts to develop sustainable energy production around the globe Honorable Debbie Cook, City of Huntington Beach –Green growth, green policy II: Local efforts to increase energy efficiency and conservation in the West Walker Wells, Global Green

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game plan Tomorrow Afternoon Housing Markets in California and the West: Supply, Demand, and Prices –The markets for housing and trends in housing production: What’s ahead? Steve Cauley, UCLA –The role of regulation in affecting housing supply and prices: Part of the solution, or part of the problem, or both? Marlon Boarnet, UC Irvine –School quality and housing choices: What are the links? Ariel Bierbaum, UC Berkeley –What is and can be done to make housing more affordable to more people? Victoria Basolo, UC Irvine

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game plan Tomorrow Evening Planning for Affordable, Sustainable, Housing –Intergovernmental Planning for Housing Linda Wheaton, California Department of Housing & Community Development –Green building techniques and codes: What are the trends, what have been the effects? Brian Gitt, Build It Green –The future of housing in California: A Developer’s Perspective Andrew Henderson, BIA of Southern California

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game plan Tuesday Morning Planning for (and coping with) Growth –The future of high-tech employment in an increasingly expensive and congested Silicon Valley Carl Guardino, Silicon Valley Leadership Group –Planning for logistics-based employment growth in the Inland Empire John Husing, Economics & Politics –Preparing for an increasingly urbanized San Joaquin Valley Barbara Patrick, Great Valley Center

Institute of Transportation Studies Our Game plan Closing Session Strategies for Moving Forward: What should be done? Can it be done? If so, how and by whom? –Honorable Christopher Cabaldon, West Sacramento –Hasan Ikhrata, Southern California Association of Governments –Joan Sollenberger, California Department of Transportation

Institute of Transportation Studies Some opening thoughts Putting growth in California and the west in context

Institute of Transportation Studies Some opening thoughts Putting growth in California and the west in context Rush hour – Lagos, Nigeria

Institute of Transportation Studies Historical and Projected Population California, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance

Institute of Transportation Studies Population Growth Rate by Decade California, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance

Institute of Transportation Studies Indexed Trends in Population and Vehicle Miles Traveled in California, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance, U.S. DOT, Caltrans

Institute of Transportation Studies Annual Population Growth Rates California and the World, Sources: United Nations Population Fund, CA Dept. of Finance

Institute of Transportation Studies Share of Population Living in Urbanized Areas California and the World, 2007 Sources: United Nations Population Fund, USDA

Institute of Transportation Studies Share of Population Living in Urbanized Areas California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007 Sources: United Nations Population Fund, USDA

Institute of Transportation Studies Annual Population Growth Rates, California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007 Sources: CIA World Factbook, CA Dept. of Finance

Institute of Transportation Studies Population Density and GDP per capita, California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007 Sources: CIA World Factbook,U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance

Institute of Transportation Studies The Planning for Growth Conundrum

Institute of Transportation Studies The Planning for Growth Conundrum First Premise: Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years

Institute of Transportation Studies The Planning for Growth Conundrum First Premise: Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years — which threaten the quality of life in our state

Institute of Transportation Studies The Planning for Growth Conundrum First Premise: Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years —which threaten the quality of life in our state. Second Premise: If we do not prepare for this growth with infrastructure investments and environmental mitigation, we will chase away new jobs and residents, and the growth will not occur

Institute of Transportation Studies The Planning for Growth Conundrum First Premise: Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years —which threaten the quality of life in our state. Second Premise: If we do not prepare for this growth with infrastructure investments and environmental mitigation, we will chase away new jobs and residents, and the growth will not occur —which would threaten the quality of life in our state

Institute of Transportation Studies Growth: Can’t live with it, can’t live without it Former New York Yankee star Yogi Berra on why he no longer patronized a popular Manhattan nightclub:

Institute of Transportation Studies Growth: Can’t live with it, can’t live without it Former New York Yankee star Yogi Berra on why he no longer patronized a popular Manhattan nightclub: “The place is too crowded, nobody goes there anymore.”

Institute of Transportation Studies The Planning for Growth Conundrum Proposition: Circular, ambivalent, and contradictory attitudes towards growth among voters and the officials they elect…

Institute of Transportation Studies The Planning for Growth Conundrum Proposition: Circular, ambivalent, and contradictory attitudes towards growth among voters and the officials they elect… help to explain the circular, ambivalent, and contradictory policies promulgated to manage growth

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City –Focus new development into transit corridors and around major stops/stations

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City –Focus new development into corridors and around major stops/stations –Encourage development of major commercial nodes

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City –Focus new development into corridors and around major stops/stations –Encourage development of major commercial nodes –Limit, or at least densify, growth in suburbs, and especially on fringe

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City –Focus new development into corridors and around major stops/stations –Encourage development of major commercial nodes –Limit, or at least densify, growth in suburbs, and especially on fringe –Limit parking and increase taxes that raise the cost of auto use

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City –Focus new development into corridors and around major stops/stations –Encourage development of major commercial nodes –Limit, or at least densify, growth in suburbs, and especially on fringe –Limit parking and increase taxes that raise the cost of auto use –Direct transportation investments away from roads and toward public transit

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 2: Improve the Automobile City –Balance jobs/housing, mix land uses, and cap development densities in areas not already well-served by transit

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 2: Improve the Automobile City –Balance jobs/housing, mix land uses, and cap development densities in areas not already well-served by transit –Design new development to integrate autos with walking environments to reduce vehicle trips

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 2: Improve the Automobile City –Balance jobs/housing, mix land uses, and cap development densities in areas not already well-served by transit –Design new development to integrate autos with walking environments to reduce vehicle trips –Add road and parking capacity where warranted

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 2: Improve the Automobile City –Balance jobs/housing, mix land uses, and cap development densities in areas not already well- served by transit –Design new development to integrate autos with walking environments to reduce vehicle trips –Add road and parking capacity where warranted –Set transportation taxes and fees to vary with costs imposed on by drivers (or, short of that, increase motor fuels taxes) to create a self- regulating, self-financing system

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 3: Try to do both as a matter of political compromise –Policies, programs, and projects often operate at cross-purposes

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 3: Try to do both as a matter of political compromise –Policies, programs, and projects often operate at cross-purposes –Funding is increasingly ad hoc and unrelated to transportation system use

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 3: Try to do both as a matter of political compromise –Policies, programs, and projects often operate at cross-purposes –Funding is increasingly ad hoc and unrelated to transportation system use –Create densely-developed, largely auto- dependent, chronically-congested centers High-rise development with plenty of parking

Institute of Transportation Studies Cars, density, and values: three policy paths... Policy Path 3: Try to do both as a matter of political compromise –Policies, programs, and projects often operate at cross-purposes –Funding is increasingly ad hoc and unrelated to transportation system use –Creating densely-developed, largely auto- dependent, chronically-congested centers High-rise development with plenty of parking –The worst of all possible worlds?

Institute of Transportation Studies Try to do both: The worst of all possible worlds?

Institute of Transportation Studies The Road Ahead