Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado CAM T341- Jim Hack Climate Modeling in a Changed World New Directions and Requirements for Climate following the breakthrough IPCC AR4 Climate Modeling in a Changed World New Directions and Requirements for Climate following the breakthrough IPCC AR4

Science exists to serve human welfare. Its wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity. Walter Orr Roberts Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Climate Modeling in a Changed World New Directions and Requirements for Climate following the breakthrough IPCC AR4 Climate Modeling in a Changed World New Directions and Requirements for Climate following the breakthrough IPCC AR4

NCAR NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4 A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past & Geoengineering Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5 + Data: Building the Earth System Grid + Social NCAR

NCAR Scientific facilities 2. Supercomputer/Data/Network/Support 3. Large-scale National Scientific Development Environment National Science Foundation FFRDC -900 Staff, 500 Scientists/Engineers -4 Boulder-area campuses -Governed by > 70 universities 1. Advanced Observational Facilities

NCAR TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Initial Conditions Boundary Conditions Weather vs Climate Weather Prediction Climate Prediction Climate Change Trenberth

The Earth Climate System

Timeline of Climate Model Development

Chemistry Climate Chemistry Climate BioGeo Chem BioGeo Chem Software Engineering Climate Variability Polar Climate Polar Climate Land Model Land Model PaleoClimate Ocean Model Ocean Model CCSM Working Groups DevelopmentDevelopment Application WACCM Atm Model Atm Model Climate Change CCSM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy

CAM T341- Jim Hack What does a climate model look like?

Climate of the last Millennium Caspar Ammann NCAR/CGD

Stage 2. Historical: run using time-evolving, observed, Solar, GHG, Volcanoes, O Historical Stage 3. Future Scenarios: IPCC Scenarios from end of historical run Commit 2100 B A1B 2100 A Future Scenarios Years TS (Globally averaged surface temperature) Stage control run: 1000 years with constant 1870 forcing: Solar, GHG, Volcanic Sulfate, O control a b cd e 1870 Probablistic Climate Simulations

NCAR NSF/DOE IPCC Project NCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ES 6-Year Timeline 2002: Climate Model/Data-systems development 2003: Climate Model Control Simulations 2004: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations 2005: Data Postprocessing & Analysis 2006: Scientific Synthesis 2007: Publication Observations of the Earths Climate System Simulations Past, Present Future Climate States Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate Years /decade Trenberth

2030: A Warmer and Wetter World

Temperature at 2030 Averages and Extremes

Precipitation at 2030 Averages and Extremes

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice Observations Simulated 5-year running mean Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years. Abrupt transition Simulation of Future Climate Marika Holland, NCAR

Ammann et al.

2006 If anything, we are being much too conservative! Is the IPCC being too Alarmist? Raupach et al., 2007 Canadell et al., 2007

NCAR NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4 A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past & Geoengineering Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5 + Data: Building the Earth System Grid + Social NCAR

But, should we really be worried?

Lessons from the Past If we continue on the Business as usual scenario, significant changes begin to be observed at 4x CO2

Global Annual Mean Energy Budget Annual Mean Surface Temperature Permian coupled model run for 2700 years to new equilibrium state Forcing of 10X increase in CO 2 and Permian paleogeography T s > = 8°C CCSM3 T31X3 Kiehl and Shields

NCAR Wignall(2005) Clear Some None Evidence Inefficient mixing seen in Permian ocean: Indicative of anoxia, consistent with large extinction event

Geoengineering strategies Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel) High Altitude Sulphur injections Seeding stratocumulus clouds to brighten clouds Sequestration of CO2 Iron Fertilization,... Phil Rasch NCAR We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out! We are proposing that the implications should be carefully explored.

Title slide From Church, White, & Arblaster Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, June 15, Gases and solids injected 20 km into the stratosphere.

NCAR Add sulfate at a rate of 0.5 Pinatubo/yr

1650 Little Ice Age 1: IPCC A2 2: 0.3% 3: %

2: 0.3% 3: % 4. Commitment 1. A2 Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance Question: These geoengineering approaches both involve dimming the sun. What is the impact on global food production of a 1% decrease in incoming solar radiation

NCAR NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4 A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past & Geoengineering Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5 + Data: Building the Earth System Grid + Social NCAR

Climate Change Epochs Attribute sources of historical warming Project range of possible non-mitigated future warming from SRES scenarios Quantify Climate Change Commitment Project adaptation needs under various mitigation scenarios Time-evolving regional climate change on short and long-term timeframes Quantify carbon cycle feedbacks Before IPCCAR4 After Conclusion: With the wide public acceptance of the IPCC AR4 findings, the climate science community is now facing the new challenge of quantifying time evolving regional climate change that human societies will have to adapt to under several possible mitigation scenarios, as well as addressing the size of carbon cycle feedbacks with more comprehensive Earth System Models

CCSP 2.1a Mitigation Simulations

IPCC AR4 Modeling Centers & AR5 Timeline

Aerosols –Direct and indirect effects Chemistry –Radiative and air quality issues Dynamic Vegetation –Regrowth following disturbance Carbon & Nitrogen Cycle –Ocean & land biogeochemistry –Anthropogenic (transient) land use/cover Land Ice Sheets –Sea level Rise & Abrupt Climate change New CCSM Components for IPCC AR5

IPCC AR5 (2013) Scenarios The current model development timeline anticipates CCSM4 in 2009 in time to participate in the next set of internationally coordinated mitigation scenario experiments in for a 2013 IPCC AR5 publication date 1. IPCC Classic + Mitigation Scenarios: 100 & 300-year climate change simulations Medium resolution Core required + optional Tier 1 and Tier 2 simulations Carbon, Nitrogen & Biogeochemical cycles 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from IAM community Quantify investment return of mitigation strategies 2. New Climate Change Adaptation Simulations: Short-term (30-year) climate predictions Single scenario High-resolution (0.5° or 0.25° resolution) Designed for impacts, policy and decision making communities.

RCPs in perspective – CO 2 emissions ( 671ppm, +3.7°, NIES ) ( 900ppm, +4.5°, IIASA ) ( 550ppm, +---°, PNNL ) ( 424ppm, <2°, MNP ) ( 370ppm, <2°, MNP ) From Moss et al., 2008

HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction Data Assimilation New Science Spatial Resolution Ensemble size Timescale Better Science (parameterization explicit model) (new processes/interactions not previously included) (simulate finer details, regions & transients) (quantify statistical properties of simulation) (decadal prediction/ initial value forecasts) (Length of simulations * time step) Lawrence Buja (NCAR) / Tim Palmer (ECMWF)

Spatial Resolution (x*y*z) Ensemble size Timescale (Years*timestep) Today Terascale Climate Model Petascale 1.4° 160km 0.2° 22km AMR Km Regular Earth System Model 100yr* 20min 1000yr* 3min 1000yr * ? Code Rewrite Cost Multiplier Data Assimilation ESM+multiscale GCRM New Science Better Science HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction ? Lawrence Buja (NCAR) Exascale

Lawrence Buja (NCAR) Global General Atm/Ocn Circulation Continental Scale Flow Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups Regional MJO/MLC Convergence IPCC AR IPCC AR TF Sub-Regional Hurricanes IPCC AR TF CCSM Grand Challenge PF

Source: GSFC

CCSM at ¼ ° ATM 1/10°OCN Courtesy Dr. David Bader, PCMDI/LLNL/DOE

NCAR North Atlantic and North American Regional Climate Changes The goal is to simulate the effects of climate change on precipitation across the intermountain West States and tropical cyclones, with a focus on the Gulf of Mexico. 36, 12 and 4 km domains nested into CCSM , then time slices out to 2050 Multi-member ensembles for each period Dedicated time on NCAR IBM Power 6 (Bluefire) since July: 24 nodes (~20% of total number of processors) 36 (12) km simulations use 128 (256) processors per job Will use 3.9M processor hours through 11/08 ~300 Tb of data (to date); 450 Tb total (including earlier runs) Jim Hurrell / Greg Holland

NCAR Improving Predictions of Regional Changes in Weather and Climate The Nested Regional Climate Model IPCC (2007)IPCC (2013)NRCM High Resolution Climate Modeling Jim Hurrell / Greg Holland

NCAR Importance of Resolution 18 storms 25 storms Hurrell / Holland

NCAR NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4 A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past & Geoengineering Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5 + Data: Building the Earth System Grid + Social NCAR

Dean Williams: Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Petabyte-scale data volumes Globally federated sites Virtual Datasets created through subsetting and aggregation Metadata-based search and discovery Bulk data access Web-based and analysis tool access Increased flexibility and robustness ESG Goals Current ESG Sites Earth System Grid

Lessons Learned 1. Observational data is very similar to model data Time Value Obs data Model data 2. Observational data is very different from model data

Lessons Learned 3. Dont let scientists build their data management and distribution systems on their own! Building robust, useful data systems requires close collaboration between the two communities! …but dont let the CS folks do it alone, either

4. Effective Data Distribution Systems Require Sustained Investment Home Grown Data Systems Community Data Portal Earth System Grid Initially Cheap $$$ in long term Limited Scale Modest Investment Agile and Right-sized for Many Projects Institutional Scale Large Investment Infrastructure for Large Projects Spans Institutions Lessons Learned

20,000 Climate Scientists 4,000,000 GIS Licenses

Briefing on Results : USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Endangered Species Listing Decision: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey See slide notes for this topic

NCAR NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4 A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past & Geoengineering Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5 + Data: Building the Earth System Grid + Social NCAR

Image courtesy of Canada DND After IPCC AR4, the direction of our climate change research program dramatically changed. WAS: Is anthropogenic climate change occurring? NOW: What will be the impact of anthropogenic climate change on coupled human and natural systems? Magnitude and speed? Direct and indirect impacts? Adaptation vs mitigation What are our options & limits? Addressing these new, much more complex, questions requires new approaches & priorities, new science capabilities, collaborators & partners Science capabilities a direct function of computational capabilities Weather and Climate Science, Applications and Services

1.Assessment Methods, Products, and Tools New methods and tools for assessing the impacts of climate and weather Climate scenario development, statistical and GIS methods, simulation tools. 2.Climate-Ecosystem-Human Interactions Complex interactions among earths climate, ecosystem, and inhabitants. Future impacts of climate on human & natural ecosystems 3.Use of Scientific Information in Decision Processes Bridge gap between earth-system science and the needs of decision makers scientific information use for policy and management decisions when information is uncertain or incomplete. 4.Vulnerability, Adaptation, Thresholds, and Resilience Enhancing society's capacity to develop more resilient, sustainable systems, Thresholds, coping ranges & adaptation strategies for social and resource systems 5.Integrated Science and Regional Applications Regional applications integrate fundamental research from the four other themes.

Impediments contd 2. Uniqueness of mission relative to NCAR Physical Sciences – The bulk of NCAR is based in physical science while ISSEs societal mission is quite different. – NCAR traditional physical sciences does not currently meet the needs of integrative research for the benefit of society. NCAR Physical Sciences ISSE Social and Environmental Sciences Valley of Death Approaches / Languages / Mental Models Solution: This is the nature of interdisciplinary work, The gap is closed by communication, bridging projects and developing trust relationships - Frontier areas focused on filling in the Valley of Death

The Challenge… Maintaining healthy national and local economies, in a rapidly changing world of increasing population and GNP, all accessing a finite resource base. Its all about sustainability of Energy, Food & Water… While maintaining your critical Human systems - Transportation, Agriculture, Health & Quality of life… Without disrupting your critical natural ecosystems…

National Center for Atmospheric Research More than Meteorologists…. Writers Communicators Educators Solar Physicists Statisticians - Risk analysis Mathematicians Software Engineers Network Engineers GIS/Data Management Social Scientists -Adaptation -Mitigation -Impacts -Health Govt Affairs Policy Law Chemists Engineers: Chemical, Electrical, Mechanical… Sea-Ice Hydrology Economists Energy Biology Land Use Observations Simulations Field Programs ClimateOceansWeather Lawrence Buja