Azerbaijans 20 years of economic independence: Is it really independence? November 29, 2011 Ingilab Ahmadov.

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Presentation transcript:

Azerbaijans 20 years of economic independence: Is it really independence? November 29, 2011 Ingilab Ahmadov

SC GDP per capita, dynamics over 20 years (PPP) 2Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov Source:

South Caucasus GDP in Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

South Caucasus international reserves in Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

Oil in Azeri economy (2010) Robust economic growth in recent years, supported by high oil production and export and higher oil prices Oil sectors share in GDP (58%) Oil sectors share in Budget revenues (64%) Oil sectors share in Export (92,5 %) 5Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

What gave us 20 years of economic independence? Positive Green light on Western capital coming into economy Substantial reconstruction of the infrastructure Baku become one of the most beautiful and richest cities of FSU Integration into European and world economy, technology and management 6Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

Negative Unemployment Loss of Soviet industry, agricultural sector Loss of robust education system Ejection of labor forces Scale of corruption What gave us 20 years of economic independence? 7Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

Resource abundant economy Advantages: State expansion economy (Keynes) Massive infrastructure reconstruction Initiator of regional infrastructure projects Surplus & international reserves High oil & gas prices and gaining momentum for the expansion of investment abroad 8Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

Disadvantages: Inflation Loss of Competitiveness Costly/heavy economy Lack of job-created economy Consumer economy Lack of innovation Resource abundant economy 9Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

Is it truly sustainable? Economy developments as sustainable as long as O&G resources are enough Oil & gas resources are quite enough until 2025 Oil Fund assets will reach $100 bln. (equal to GDP) by 2025 Transit resources as an attempted alternative to natural resources SOCAR Black Sea investment strategy 10Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

Is it truly a market economy? Not WTO member Monopoly, barrier on access to market Old/new economy Business, bureaucracy and politics are not separated 11Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov

Thank You! 12Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov