EU-Belarus Relations: Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks Mitchell A Orenstein Johns Hopkins University SAIS

Dictatorship in the Heart of Europe How does Europe deal with a dictatorship in the heart of Europe? – Belarus has not progressed towards democracy, market reform, membership in EU – Challenges vision of Europe whole and free Especially when the EU will not use the carrot of conditionality? EU policy defined by what it is not able to do

Argument Short on Carrots – Carrot of membership is off the table – EU tries to come up with other carrots Short on Sticks – EU has imposed sanctions – Has few other tools Problem Remains

The Carrot of Membership Membership conditionality has been EUs number one tool – Influenced Central and Eastern Europe – Influenced the Balkans No agreement on offering membership to non-Baltic former Soviet states Europe beset by enlargement fatigue Membership conditionality is out

Lets Find Some New Carrots?

Berlusconi Visit to Belarus

Lukashenko at Vatican

New Carrots? Recognition – Lukashenko Visits Vatican, April 2009 – Berlusconi Visits Belarus, December 2009 – Grybauskaite Visits Belarus, October 2010 Money – IMF Loan to Belarus, $3.6bn, January 2009 – EBRD Strategy for Belarus, December 2009 – EU promises $4bn, November 2010 With Political Conditionality

Charm Offensive Ends

After December 19 th, 2010 EU and US impose travel bans on top officials Belarus currency collapses, May 2011 – Needs infusion of cash – Negotiates with Russians, Chinese, Iranians, IMF Voices in EU urge new carrots – Bulgarian Foreign Minister Mladenov letter – Polish Prime Minister Tusk Belarus cancels participation in European Partnership Summit, supports Eurasian Union

Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks EU cannot foster political change in Belarus Without carrot of EU membership, relationship with Russia is more important Sticks are symbolic, but not effective – More effective stick might be a ban on oil and gas imports from Belarus EU continue to sway between engagement and isolation

Policy Options Strengthen Sanctions Engagement Bail Out Economy Watch and Wait