Domestic Energy Demand: Projections to 2030 Diana Dixon
Current situation: Domestic energy consumption end use Space heating is the largest energy use Space heating has been reducing over the last few years Appliances have increased since the 70’s
Current situation: Domestic energy end use and fuel 2007 Gas currently represents: 84% of space heating 79% of water heating Consumer switching cost from Gas to Electricity / renewable energy will be high Source: domestic 2009, DECC
Key drivers of domestic demand Conservation Population Number of Households Appliances & trends Outdoor temperature
Looking forward: Population & Housing statistics 27.8m households by 2031 (+252,000 households p.a.) Currently 26% elderly heads of household 32% in 2031 (6 percentage points increase) 13% people live alone now 18% will live alone in 2031 Source:
Space Heating: Conservation measures 95% of suitable households have loft insulation 85% of housing stock has double glazing 40% suitable properties have cavity wall insulation Assumption: 0.5% improvement p.a. due to new housing stock & conservation measures
Space Heating: Heating-degree days Reduction of 300 days over 40 years = 0.29% p.a. Assume that this trend will continue Source: sciencedirect.com
Space Heating: Aging population Implications: More people at home during the day Lower metabolic rates Thermal comfort defined as between 20-24°C by WHO 10% increase in space heating in 6% of households. For every 1 °C of energy the requirement is 8-10 °C in the UK Negligible impact on space heating ~0.93% by 2030 Source: Office of national statistics
Lights & Appliances Assumptions: Number of major appliances per household is close to saturation point. New technology / consumer electronics demand will be off-set by: – Reduced average household size – Improved energy efficiency – Low energy lightbulbs - assume a switch over of 100% by 2020 (395,524 x 20%) Water & Cooking: Assume that ratio for cooking and water will remain flat - aligned to no of households
Domestic Projections to 2030 (Using the current ratios for the domestic uses)