Daniel Sperling Professor and Director Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis) University of California, Davis and Board Member, California Air Resources Board CEIP Washington, DC 24 September 2012 States Leading the Way With PEVs

States and localities, which have generally advanced PEV commercialization more directly and effectively than has Washington, will likely be the source of the most durable solutions. In our report, we say…

Huge Market Uncertainty Consumers: How will they value all-electric range, limited range, zero emissions, quietness? Technology: How fast will battery costs drop? Manufacturers: How will automakers value PEVs? Policy?? Mainstream consumers Early adopters Development of market Valley of death

What We Know… Continuum of Electrification, But Uncertain Market Outcomes ?

CAFE/GHG 54 mpg Standards Probably Wont Stimulate Significant PEV Sales by 2025… Even With Special ZEV Credits (EVs count as 0 g/mi and receive 2x credits initially) Stringency % GHG reduction/yr % Hybrids% EVs 4%180 5%431 CARB/EPA/DOT Analysis of Technology Needed for Compliance

Why (State) Policymakers Are Interested in PEVs Air pollution and public health Climate change Electric utility performance Jobs Industrial development Motivations vary greatly across government agencies and legislatures … for California, it was first local air pollution and is now mostly climate change

One CARB Scenario to Achieve GHG goals by 2050 … Virtually All Light Duty Vehicles must be ZEV by 2050 Source:

Many States Charging Ahead With PEVs ZEV mandate states

Checklist for California Policies Supporting PEVs Motivating PEV Manufacturers and Consumers ZEV mandate (CARB + 10 states) PEV consumer tax credit ($2500) GHG/CAFE stds to incentivize PEVs Carpool lane access Cultivating Local PEV Clusters Working with metro areas on public charging and streamlining permitting (w/DOE funding) Promoting PEV Interactions With Electricity Providers Electricity rate design for PEVs (PUC) Investing strategically in recharging infrastructure (Governor, $100 million) Revenues from low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) Cap and trade revenues?

Key California Policy Has Been ZEV Mandate, With a Tortured History (now adopted by 10 other states) Year 1990 ZEV mandate adopted: 2% ZEVs in 1998, 5% in 2001, and 10% in 2003measured as % of new car sales 1996 Eliminated 2% 1998 requirement and replaced with much softer requirement of 3750 BEVs 1998 % ZEV requirement further reduced by allowing very clean gasoline (and other alt fuel) vehicles as partial substitute (PZEV) 2001 % ZEV requirement further reduced by allowing small numbers of FCVs to satisfy requirement 2002 GM/DCX sue and win temporary delays 2008 New requirement: 12,500 BEVs or 5000 FCVs, plus 58,000 PHEVs by Large increase for post-2015 Stimulated investment in electric-drive technology, but limited impact on market development (so far).

ZEV Mandate (California) (roughly equal % for 10 other states) 3% 6% 9% 12% 14% of 2025 New Vehicle Sales FCVs BEVs PHEVs 15% 5 Annual % of New Vehicle Sales

UCDavis University of California California Energy Commission Funded New PH&EV Center at UC Davis

New Public-Private Leadership in California PEV Collaborative created in 2010 to coordinate activities between state and local governments, automakers, electric utilities, and others. This detailed report was published in Dec 2010.

California Aggressive in Promoting ZEVs (led by Governor, CARB, PUC)

May 2012 ZEV Executive Order by Governor $100M for: –200 fast charging stations –10,000 parking space charging stations at apartment complexes, large work sites, universities, etc Targets set by Governors Executive Order 2015: major cities have adequate infrastructure and ZEV ready 2025: 1.5 million ZEVs in California 2050: virtually all personal transportation based on ZEVs and GHG emissions from transportation reduced by 80 percent. 15

EV Charging Infrastructure Challenges How much public charging needed, where, and what type (110v, 220v, 480v) ? For PHEVs and BEVs Will industry invest in public charging? What is role of govt for: Home Workplace (and retail shopping) Public

Project Get Ready & ETEC, 2011 How to Obtain Approval for EV Charging Installation

A really dumb location for EV charging (in N. Carolina) Photo courtesy of Linda Gaines

UCDavis University of California UC Davis Is Designing Optimized Charging Networks GIS tools Fast charge network design Regional planning Demand analysis (temporal and geographical) Funding: CEC, ECOtality, Nissan

UCDavis University of California Where do People Want Chargers and of What Type?

More Incentives for PEVs California Low Carbon Fuel Standard adopted by California April 23, 2009 Requires 10% reduction in carbon intensity of transport fuels (gCO 2 -eq/MJ) Encompasses all fuels: NG, petroleum, unconventional oil, biofuels, electricity, H2 Based on lifecycle measurements (source to wheel) Imposed on oil refiners Companies can buy and sell credits (from electricity and/or infrastructure suppliers) Could generate hundreds of dollars per vehicle per year

Summary of California Policies Supporting PEVs Motivating PEV Manufacturers and Consumers ZEV mandate (CARB + 10 states) PEV consumer tax credit ($2500) GHG/CAFE stds to incentivize PEVs Carpool land access Cultivating Local PEV Clusters Working with metro areas on public charging and streamlining permitting (w/DOE funding) Promoting PEV Interactions With Electricity Providers Electricity rate design for PEVs (PUC) Investing strategically in recharging infrastructure (Governor, $100 million) Revenues from low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) Cap and trade revenues?

Overarching Policy/Ideological Issues Importance of government intervention? Perceived cost of pollution/climate change, and urgency in addressing them? Market vs regulatory approach? Policy approaches depend on what you believe: 1)PEVs are expensive and have limited market potential; OR 2) PEVs are attractive and sustainable, and likely to dominate

States and localities, which have generally advanced PEV commercialization more directly and effectively than has Washington, will likely be the source of the most durable solutions.(?!)