Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 20-Sep-15 What are National Security Threats? 2 nd Annual JTAC Workshop 4 April 2006 ASCO and DTRA Update and Welcome UNCLASSIFIED Richard Gullickson, Director, ASCO

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 20-Sep-15 Message National strategy focuses on understanding adversaries Threat Anticipation emphasized in QDR Adversary “deterrence calculus” key element of STRATCOM strategy deterrence assessment process TAP makes important contribution to DTRA Campaign 6: Global Situational Awareness Importance of international partnership with Australia

National Policy Shapes ASCO Portfolio Policy themes:  Prevention: Anticipate threats Know your adversary Cultural and social network understanding Deterring terrorism  Nuclear proliferation Nuclear terrorism Cooperative interdiction  Disruptive technologies Technical surprise Advanced bio threat Knowledge transformation  Expanded DoD roles Enabling HD/HS Low now, but rapidly increasing

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 20-Sep-15 CWC BWC DTRA is a Combat Support Agency Focused on Combating WMD NonproliferationCounterproliferationConsequence Management Stopped by Threat Control & Threat Reduction Stopped by Deterrence Stopped by Counterforce & Elimination Stopped by Active Defense Stopped by Passive Defense Consequence Management Restoration Operations National Strategy Stopped by Interdiction QDR Emphasis: Proliferation Prevention

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 20-Sep-15 DIRECTOR Deputy Director DIRECTOR Deputy Director Advanced Systems & Concepts Office Threat Reduction Advisory Committee USD(AT& L) DDR&E JCS Threat Anticipation Supports Global Situational Awareness ATSD(NCB) STRATCOM Center For Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction STRAT OperationsR&D Control WMD Materials and Systems Worldwide Business Excellence Protect the Homeland Against Catastrophic WMD threats Business DoD Center for Global WMD Situational Awareness Remove WMD threat to the warfighter Deterrence Transformation ASCO BOD OSD-P

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 20-Sep-15 ASCO Projects Have Long Term Strategic Impact Time Resources UNM SARS Quarantine Table Top Exercise Homeland Defense 2008 Risk Management In New Strategic Framework Future Military Conflict Impact of Future Technology Threat Anticipation University Strategic Partnership Strategic Crisis Management Iranian WMD Future WMD Strategic Deterrence Iraqi Virtual Science Library

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 20-Sep-15 New Directions in Threat Anticipation Results Analyzed Al Qaeda's decision making strategy post-Iraq War Identified soft US mideast sites as their primary goals prior to May attacks Agent-based model supports Joint Staff Assessment of Indonesian stability with Australian, PACOM collaboration Objective Understand and anticipate adversary behavior, motivations, world views Elements Integrate computational and social sciences 2 prototype models: one traditional agent-based, and one using a novel approach Joint Threat Anticipation Center at UC, ANL Verification and validation

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 20-Sep-15 University Strategic Partnership Solving DTRA Problems Strategic Partnership Innovative Research Initiative in CWMD Student Research Associate Program NC A&T Florida A&M University of New Mexico He2* Metastable Cluster

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 20-Sep-15 Summary Threat anticipation is key element of national strategy Substantial emphasis on verification and validation Importance of partnerships  Australia  University strategic partnership