OThree Chemistry MM5 Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 1 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally.

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Presentation transcript:

OThree Chemistry MM5 Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 1 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally 4 November 2003

OThree Chemistry Contents  MM5 Performance Comparisons Between  Run 1 (eta.mpp)  Run 2 (eta.dry.mpp),  Run 3 (eta.dry.rrtm.mpp)  Spatial Mean Temperature Time Series Plots  Vector Mean Surface Wind Speed Time Series Plots  Statistical Tables for Surface Mixing Ratio, 2 m Temps, and Wind Speeds  HY-SPLIT 48-hr Back Trajectories from Peak Ozone Monitors on Sept ’00  Current MM5 Diagnostic Questions

OThree Chemistry Peak 1-hr Ozone Measurements for Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Back Trajectory Plot on 17 Sept ‘00 48-hr Back Trajectory from Edison Monitor where peak of 125 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

OThree Chemistry Back Trajectory Plot on 18 Sept ‘00 48-hr Back Trajectory from Parlier Monitor where peak of 165 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

OThree Chemistry Back Trajectory Plot on 19 Sept ‘00 48-hr Back Trajectory from Arvin Monitor where peak of 145 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

OThree Chemistry Back Trajectory Plot on 20 Sept ‘00 48-hr Back Trajectory from Clovis Monitor where peak of 135 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 2m Temps MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.mpp

OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 2m Temps MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.mpp

OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 2m Temps MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Predicted and Observed 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Predicted and Observed 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Predicted and Observed 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Vector Mean Wind Speed MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.mpp

OThree Chemistry Vector Mean Wind Speed MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.mpp

OThree Chemistry Vector Mean Wind Speed MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry MM5 Surface Winds on 17 Sept ‘00 MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp Predicted and observed surface winds at 1500 PST on 18 Sept ’00 when a 1-hr peak ozone concentration of 165 ppb was measured at Parlier.

OThree Chemistry MM5 Temperature Performance Statistics for the Sep ’00 Episode

OThree Chemistry MM5 Mixing Ratio Performance Statistics for the Sep ’00 Episode

OThree Chemistry MM5 Wind Speed Performance Statistics for the Sep ’00 Episode

OThree Chemistry Bias in 2m Surface Temperature MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Error in 2m Surface Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Accuracy of Peak 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Bias in Surface Mixing Ratio MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Error in Surface Mixing Ratio MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Mean Daily Observed and Predicted Winds MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Daily Average Wind Speed RMSE Error MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Mean Daily Index of Agreement MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Observed and Predicted Wind Directions MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Ongoing Diagnostic Analyses  What is MM5 model sensitivity to surface roughness?  What is MM5 model sensitivity to soil moisture parameters?