Understanding Territorial Impacts: Tool for Territorial Impact Assessment Bernd Schuh (ÖIR) Karkow, Nov. 2011

ESPON ARTS The Tasks Develop a simplified, evidence-based procedure of Territorial Impact Assessment (TIA) Supply policy makers with an operational procedure that could work as a “evidence informed policy support” Analyse ex-ante the impact of EU policy proposals taking the sensitivity of regions into account Test the TIA quick check with a set of 12 directives

The theoretical approach PoliciesRegions Exposure Territorial sensitivity Territorial impact The vulnerability concept

Vulnerability Concept Potential effects (exposure): Which economic, social, and environmental fields could be affected by EU directives? (Territorial) sensitivity: Which characteristics make a territory potentially affected in its economic, social, and environmental fields? Impact: Which are the territorial effects of a certain policy given its potential effects and regional sensitivities? Adaptive capacity: How weak/strong is the ability of a system to adjust to the potential impact? => link to governance aspects Definitions in ARTS

The TIA Quick Check A user-friendly methodology that allows to make a ‘quick and dirty’ ex-ante analysis of the potential impact of EU policy proposals on the development of regions Combining –a standardised indicator-based Excel tool with –means to systematically collect expert knowledge in a workshop setting An excel tool and a procedure

(Intensity of Impacts of Directives) Regional Sensitivity Matrix Exp. fields Region 1 Exp. Field 1 Directive 1 Directive 2 Exp. Field n Territorial Impact Matrix Intensity of impacts Directive/Exposur e Matrix Regional Exposure Matrix Exp. Field 2 Region 2 Region m Directive 1 Directive 2 Directive 12 Regions Region1 Region 2 Region m ( One matrix ) (One matrix for each directive) Exp. Field 1 Exp. Field 2 Exp. Field n Exp. Field 1 Exp. Field 2 Exp. Field n Regions Region 1 Region 2 Region m Regional exposure Regional sensitivity (Logical Chains from Directives to Exposure Fields) (Regional Exposure to Directives) (Regional Sensitivity to Exposure Fields) Directive 12 Logical chains =xx

9 Steps to Assess the Territorial Impact of Policy Proposals (1)The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions? (2)Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching) (3)Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure) (4)What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix) (5)What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix) (6)Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check) (7)Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results) (8)What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion) (9)How to communicate the results? (write-up)

(1) Conceptual model: Brainstorming Creating a systemic picture linking the regulations with territorial effects

(1) Result: Conceptual Model Deducing potential effects from Directives Input related sectors – pesticide production – spraying equipment Land use/types of territories –Natura 2000/FFH –special use of land (hospitals, parks, playgrounds) –strong protection Implementation process Socio-economic effects Agricultural production quantity Soil –„immission“ decreases –improvement of soil quality Air –aerial spraying prohibited –Improvement of air quality Water –efficient application techniques (no aerial spraying, no drift application) –Improvement of water quality Quality of LifeHuman Health Recreational value of land National Action Plan – Monitoring & Control Training Education/awareness Agricultural production quality Output related sectors – drinking water – fisheries – tourism Environmental effects Employment Innovation positive correlation Regulative framework Eco-system/ Bio-diversity Social effects negative correlation (sustainable use of) Pesticides Emission

(2) Picturing different cause - effect chains(branching) (1)The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions? (2)Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching) (3)Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure) (4)What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix) (5)What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix) (6)Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check) (7)Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results) (8)What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion) (9)How to communicate the results? (write-up)

(3) Expert judgment: types of regions exposed Provided: 20 types of regions (NUTS2) to be selected

(3) Background: existing typologies of regions 0: no 1: yes

(4) Expert judgment: exposure caused by Directive 0: no 1: yes

(4) Background: List of 41 exposure fields

(5) Input for impact: regional sensitivity Linking indicators with territorial units (NUTS2) 41 Normalised indicators: 0,75: minimum sensitivity 1,25 maximum sensitivity

(5) Result: Calculation of territorial impact Linking indicators with territorial units (NUTS2)

(6): Plausibility check (1)The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions? (2)Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching) (3)Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure) (4)What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix) (5)What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix) (6)Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check) (7)Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results) (8)What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion) (9)How to communicate the results? (write-up)

(7) Result: Map for each indicator Effects of Directive on recognition of qualification on migration balance in countries of origin

(8) + (9): Dealing with the results (1)The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions? (2)Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching) (3)Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure) (4)What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix) (5)What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix) (6)Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check) (7)Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results) (8)What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion) (9)How to communicate the results? (write-up)

TIA Quick Check in 2 versions The standard TIA quick check: Helps to identify the relevant thematic fields that are effected by a policy proposal. Allows to select NUTS2 regions with a potentially high positive or negative impact. Helps to set a focus for further and more detailed impact analysis. The advanced TIA quick check Allows users to define special indicators describing the exposure to policy proposals and the regional sensitivity Provides the technical framework for the vulnerability analysis Can serve for a more detailed analysis of a specific potential impact of policy proposals. A Standard version and an Advanced version