Global net land carbon sink: Results from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) December 9, 2013 AGU Fall Meeting,

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 Margaret Leinen Chief Science Officer Climos Oceans: a carbon sink or sinking ecosystems?

Advertisements

DGVM runs for Trendy/RECCAP S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, A. Ahlström, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, P. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, C. Huntingford, C. D.,

Multi-Scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – A Systematic Approach for Evaluating Land-Atmosphere Flux Estimates February 4 th,

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought

CMIP5: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

Improving Understanding of Global and Regional Carbon Dioxide Flux Variability through Assimilation of in Situ and Remote Sensing Data in a Geostatistical.

Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy North American Carbon Balance – Results from the Regional Synthesis Project of the North America Carbon.

Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Estimating the North American Carbon Balance Using Inter- Comparison Among Inversions, Regional Terrestrial.

CMS – 2012 Reduction in Bottom-Up Land Surface CO 2 Flux Uncertainty in NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Project through Systematic Multi-Model Evaluation.

Tropical vs. extratropical terrestrial CO 2 uptake and implications for carbon-climate feedbacks Outline: How we track the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 Historic.

An Assessment of the Carbon Balance of Arctic Tundra: Comparisons among Observations, Models, and Atmospheric inversions A. David McGuire and Co-authors.

US Carbon Trends March 17, USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium1 Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Contemporary Carbon Sources and Sinks in the Ridge.

Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Important Concerns: Potential greenhouse warming (CO 2, CH 4 ) and ecosystem interactions with climate Carbon management (e.g.,

School Research Conference, March 2009 Jennifer Wright Supervisors: M.Williams, G. Starr, R.Mitchell, M.Mencuccini Fire and Forest Ecosystems in the Southeastern.

Management impacts on the C balance in agricultural ecosystems Jean-François Soussana 1 Martin Wattenbach 2, Pete Smith 2 1. INRA, Clermont-Ferrand, France.

Andrew Schuh 1, Stephen M. Ogle 1, Marek Uliasz 1, Dan Cooley 1, Tristram West 2, Ken Davis 3, Thomas Lauvaux 3, Liza Diaz 3, Scott Richardson 3, Natasha.

The North American Carbon Program: An Overview for AmeriFlux investigators Kenneth Davis The Pennsylvania State University Co-chair, NACP Science Steering.

Biosphere Modeling Galina Churkina MPI for Biogeochemistry.

The North American Carbon Program (NACP) Multi-Scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison (MsTMIP) Project Introductions Overview.

O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 1 Carbon Cycle Modeling Terrestrial Ecosystem Models W.M. Post, ORNL Atmospheric Measurements.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Carbon Exchanges between the Atmosphere and Terrestrial Ecosystems of China Hanqin Tian Ecosystem and Regional Studies.

Soil characteristics, an important terrestrial ecosystem modeling input, affects the photosynthesis, respiration, evapotranspiration, or other biosphere.

Paul R. Moorcroft David Medvigy, Stephen Wofsy, J. William Munger, M. Dietze Harvard University Developing a predictive science of the biosphere.

Climate change and the carbon cycle David Schimel National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado.

Estimating Terrestrial Wood Biomass from Observed Concentrations of Atmospheric CO 2 Kevin Schaefer 1, Wouter Peters 2, Nuno Carvalhais 3, Guido van der.

Sharon M. Gourdji, K.L. Mueller, V. Yadav, A.E. Andrews, M. Trudeau, D.N. Huntzinger, A.Schuh, A.R. Jacobson, M. Butler, A.M. Michalak North American Carbon.

Page 1© Crown copyright WP4 Development of a System for Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation Richard Betts.

A process-based, terrestrial biosphere model of ecosystem dynamics (Hybrid v. 3.0) A. D. Friend, A.K. Stevens, R.G. Knox, M.G.R. Cannell. Ecological Modelling.

Abstract Carbon Fluxes Across Four Land Use Types in New Hampshire Sean Z. Fogarty, Lucie C. Lepine, Andrew P. Ouimette — University of New Hampshire,

Nelius Foley, Matteo Sottocornola, Paul Leahy, Valerie Rondeau, Ger Kiely Hydrology, Micrometeorology and Climate Change University College Cork, IrelandEnvironmental.

O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 1 Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) Lessons Learned or How to Do.

Results from the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) 3 FastOpt 4 2 Marko Scholze 1, Peter Rayner 2, Wolfgang Knorr 1 Heinrich Widmann 3, Thomas.

An Assessment of the Carbon Balance of Arctic Tundra in North America: Comparisons among Observations, Models, and Atmospheric inversions A. David McGuire.

Continental Coastal Interactions: Integration of models across terrestrial, inland water, and coastal ocean ecosystems for diagnosis, attribution, and.

Spatial and temporal patterns of CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes from North America as estimated by process-based ecosystem model Hanqin Tian, Xiaofeng Xu and other.

By: Karl Philippoff Major: Earth Sciences

State-of-the-Art of the Simulation of Net Primary Production of Tropical Forest Ecosystems Marcos Heil Costa, Edson Luis Nunes, Monica C. A. Senna, Hewlley.

Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among an inventory-based approach, terrestrial biosphere models, and atmospheric.

Modeling Modes of Variability in Carbon Exchange Between High Latitude Ecosystems and the Atmosphere Dave McGuire (UAF), Joy Clein (UAF), and Qianlai.

Intercomparison of Global Scale Ecological Models and Field Data Intercomparison of Global Scale Ecological Models and Field Data Objective To assess how.

Evaluation of land model simulations across multiple sites and multiple models: Results from the NACP site-level synthesis effort Peter Thornton 1, Gautam.

Liebermann R 1, Kraft P 1, Houska T 1, Müller C 2,3, Haas E 4, Kraus D 4, Klatt S 4, Breuer L 1 1 Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management,

Methane Emission from Natural Wetlands in Northern Mid and High Latitudes since 1980s Xiaofeng Xu 1, Hanqin Tian 1, Vivienne Payne 2, Janusz Eluszkiewicz.

The Effects of Historical Changes in Global Agricultural Land on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Navin Ramankutty [ Center for.

UDnFmNTYhttps:// UDnFmNTY gmFa0r04https://

An alternative explanation to the size and location of the missing sink Robert Andres 1 Skee Houghton 2 1 Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National.

Using data assimilation to improve estimates of C cycling Mathew Williams School of GeoScience, University of Edinburgh.

Cyberinfrastructure to promote Model - Data Integration Robert Cook, Yaxing Wei, and Suresh S. Vannan Oak Ridge National Laboratory Presented at the Model-Data.

1. The Study of Excess Nitrogen in the Neuse River Basin “A Landscape Level Analysis of Potential Excess Nitrogen in East-Central North Carolina, USA”

1 CAMELS CAMELS PROJECT OVERVIEW Motivation for CAMELS Deliverables Products Structure Peter Cox, Hadley Centre, Met Office.

William G. Benjey* Physical Scientist NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division Research Triangle Park, NC Fifth Annual CMAS.

Goal: to understand carbon dynamics in montane forest regions by developing new methods for estimating carbon exchange at local to regional scales. Activities:

CarboEurope: The Big Research Lines Annette Freibauer Ivan Janssens.

A comparison of recent model- and inventory- based estimates of the continental-scale carbon balance of North America A. David McGuire USGS / University.

TF HTAP, TF IAM, Vienna, February HTAP-GAINS scenario analysis: preliminary exploration of emission scenarios with regard to the benefits of global.

A Modeling and Synthesis Thematic Data Center for the North American Carbon Program Robert B. Cook 1, Yaxing Wei 1, W. Mac Post 1, Peter E. Thornton 1,

Success and Failure of Implementing Data-driven Upscaling Using Flux Networks and Remote Sensing Jingfeng Xiao Complex Systems Research Center, University.

State of the Carbon Cycle (NACP and GCP): Have components and their uncertainties changed over time? Anna M. Michalak With contributions from: Kevin Bowman,

Fundamental Dynamics of the Permafrost Carbon Feedback Schaefer, Kevin 1, Tingjun Zhang 1, Lori Bruhwiler 2, and Andrew Barrett 1 1 National Snow and Ice.

A model-data intercomparison of CO 2 exchange across North America: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis Christopher R Schwalm.

Metrics and MODIS Diane Wickland December, Biology/Biogeochemistry/Ecosystems/Carbon Science Questions: How are global ecosystems changing? (Question.

Can nitrogen fertilization effect reduce global warming? Galina Churkina MPI-BGC, Germany.

Biospheric Models as Priors Deborah Huntzinger, U. Michigan.

Surprises in the anthropogenic carbon budget Why OCB is so important! Jorge Sarmiento Princeton University Co-lead author of the US Carbon Cycle Science.

Advances in Support of the CMAQ Bidirectional Science Option for the Estimation of Ammonia Flux from Agricultural cropland Ellen Cooter U.S. EPA, National.

Effect of anthropogenic nitrogen depositions on atmospheric CO2

Continental Modeling and Analysis of the North American Carbon Cycle

Pre-anthropogenic C cycle and recent perturbations

GFDL Climate Model Status and Plans for Product Generation

1. The Study of Excess Nitrogen in the Neuse River Basin

Presentation transcript:

Global net land carbon sink: Results from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) December 9, 2013 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco Deborah N Huntzinger Christopher R. Schwalm, Anna M. Michalak, Robert B. Cook, Andrew R. Jacobson, Kevin Schaefer, Yaxing Wei, and MsTMIP modeling teams.

Acknowledgements Funding: NASA Terrestrial Ecology Grant# NNX10AG01A Modeling and Synthesis Thematic Data Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory ( with funding through NASA Terrestrial Ecology Grant # NNH10AN68I MsTMIP Modeling Team Participants (team leads):

Outline Examine estimates of global net land carbon uptake from MsTMIP model ensemble. –Evaluate the range in MsTMIP model estimates of net land sink –Compare MsTMIP model estimates of net land sink against independent estimate from Global Carbon Project (GCP) –Evaluate the sensitivity of simulated net land uptake to different drivers

Multi-scale Synthesis & Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP): Global Simulations Global (0.5° by 0.5°) Standardized environmental input data –Climate, land cover & land-use/land-cover change history, phenology, atmospheric CO 2, nitrogen deposition rates, soil, C3/C4 grass, major crops Initial results from 12 different TBMs (~20 participating in MsTMIP) 110-year simulation period ( ) 5 different global simulations to assess sensitivity to different forcing factors Huntzinger et al., (in press) The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 1: Overview and experimental design, Geoscientific Model Development Wei et al., (in review) The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data, Geoscientific Model Development Discussions

OrderDomainSimClimateLULCCAtm. CO 2 Nitrogen 1 Global RG1Constant 2SG1 Time- varying 3SG2 Time- varying 4SG3 Time- varying 5BG1 Time-varying Reference simulations  spin-up run out to 2010 Sensitivity simulations  turn one variable component on at a time to systematically test the impact of climate variability, CO 2 fertilization, nitrogen limitation, and land cover / land-use change on carbon exchange. MsTMIP Simulations: Global Start with steady-state initial conditions Start monthly output Start 3-hourly output Stop Changing climate, land-use, land-cover, CO 2 concentrations, nitrogen deposition rates

OrderDomainSimClimateLULCCAtm. CO 2 Nitrogen 1 Global RG1Constant 2SG1 Time- varying 3SG2 Time- varying 4SG3 Time- varying 5BG1 Time-varying MsTMIP Simulations: Global MsTMIP model “best estimate” either SG3 or BG1 depending on whether model can handle time-varying nitrogen deposition. MsTMIP “best estimate” used when comparing models against other independent estimates. ModelRG1SG1SG2SG3BG1 Biome-BGCXXX CLASS-CTEM-N+X CLMXXXXX CLM4-VICXXXXX DLEMXXXXX GTECXXXX LPJ-wslXXXX ORCHIDEE-LSCEXXXX SiB3-JPLXX SiB-CASAX VEGASXXXX VISITXXXX

MsTMIP Net Land Sink GPP AutoResp HeteroResp Biogenic CH 4 flux Pyrogenic Flux = CO 2 emissions, CH 4 emissions, CO emissions Product Flux = Harvest removals (Crop, Wood), CO 2 emissions, CH 4 emissions Aquatic Flux = Lateral transfer, CO 2 evasion, CH 4 evasion NEE NEE = -NEP + Fire_CO 2 + Product_CO 2 + Aquatic_CO 2 From Dan Hayes (ORNL) Also see: Hayes, D. J., and D. P. Turner, EOS, 93(41), 2012.

Changes in the global carbon budget over time from Global Carbon Project (GCP) Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012Le Quéré et al. 2012Global Carbon Project 2012 Sign convention: (+) net uptake, (-) net release “Residual land sink” -

- MsTMIP “best estimate” versus GCP estimate Sign convention: (+) net uptake (-) net release “Residual land sink”

Mean estimate from MsTMIP ensemble shows slightly stronger sink than GCP product. 3 models predict a net land sink much greater than the GCP product. For 3 models, over the last 50 years, the land surface has operated as net source of carbon.

Post mid-1990s, however, all models show the land surface as a net sink of carbon.

Net land sink by simulation: Adding in one time-varying driver at a time ModelRG1SG1SG2SG3BG1 Biome-BGCXXX CLASS-CTEM-N+X CLMXXXXX CLM4-VICXXXXX DLEMXXXXX GTECXXXX LPJ-wslXXXX ORCHIDEE-LSCEXXXX SiB3-JPLXX SiB-CASAX VEGASXXXX VISITXXXX n = 12 n = 10 n = 8 n = 4

Time-varying drivers:

Sensitivity of net flux to each forcing factor? Time-varying: Climate (SG1 - RG1) Land-use land-cover change (SG2 - SG1) Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (SG3 - SG2) Nitrogen deposition (BG1 - SG3) ModelRG1SG1SG2SG3BG1 Biome-BGCXXX CLASS-CTEM-N+X CLMXXXXX CLM4-VICXXXXX DLEMXXXXX GTECXXXX LPJ-wslXXXX ORCHIDEE-LSCEXXXX SiB3-JPLX SiB-CASAX VEGASXXXX VISITXXXX ModelRG1SG1SG2SG3BG1 Biome-BGCXXX CLASS-CTEM-N+X CLMXXXXX CLM4-VICXXXXX DLEMXXXXX GTECXXXX LPJ-wslXXXX ORCHIDEE-LSCEXXXX SiB3-JPLX SiB-CASAX VEGASXXXX VISITXXXX Only those models that have RG1 through SG3/BG1 are included in sensitivity analysis

Net uptake by simulation Normalized difference between simulations Driver resulting in greatest change (% diff) in net uptake Sensitivity of net flux to each forcing factor Only those models that have RG1 through SG3/BG1 included in sensitivity analysis

Time-varying drivers: MME across 7 models, RG1-SG3 only

Conclusions Even with consistent driver data and simulation protocol, there is a large spread in MsTMIP estimate (best estimate) of the global net land sink. MsTMIP ensemble mean (best estimate) shows a slightly stronger net land sink than the Global Carbon Project (GCP) product. Estimates of the net land sink appear to be most sensitive to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, particularly: –In North America and Europe –Post 1970s –In models that do not include a prognostic N- cycle

Questions? For further info see: – Recent manuscripts on MsTMIP experimental design and driver data: –Huntzinger et al., (in press) The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 1: Overview and experimental design, Geoscientific Model Development –Wei et al., (in review) The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data, Geoscientific Model Development Discussions MsTMIP related AGU posters & presentations: –B13M-06. 2:55PM - 3:10PM Monday; Ren et al., Evaluating natural and human impacts on carbon balance of global agro-ecosystems during based on multiple terrestrial models and data. –B22D :50 AM - 12:05 PM Tuesday; Tian et al. Global soil organic carbon dynamics as estimated by multi-terrestrial ecosystem models and field observations. –B43F-05. 3:01 PM - 3:16 PM; Thursday; Zscheischler et al., Impact of Large-Scale Climate Extremes on Biospheric Carbon Fluxes: An Intercomparison Based on MsTMIP Data.