Elliott D. Pollack & Company To: GFOAZ By: Jim Rounds, Senior Vice President Elliott D. Pollack & Company January 10 th, 2013 The Land of Uncommon Sense

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Context

Elliott D. Pollack & Company The economy we wanted…

Elliott D. Pollack & Company What we got…

Elliott D. Pollack & Company US New Job Data Change from Prior Month (S/A) June 2010 – December 2012 Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics (000’s)

Elliott D. Pollack & Company U.S. Unemployment Rate 1976 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Data through November 2012 Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company U.S. Underemployment Rate 1994 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Data through August 2012 Recession Periods Beaten down by life. Unemployment Rate

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Financial Obligation Ratio** 1980 – 2012 * Source: Federal Reserve *Data through second quarter 2012 **Ratio of mortgage and consumer debt (including auto, rent and tax payments) to disposable income. Recession Periods Paying less for past purchases!

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Consumer Confidence 1978 – 2012* Source: The Dismal Scientist *Data through December 2012 Recession Periods Normal New Normal? Approval of medical marijuana...

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Real Retail Sales U.S. Percent Change Year Ago 1973 – 2012* Source: Federal Reserve *Data through November 2012 **Three-month moving average Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Real Disposable Personal Income Percent Change Year Ago 1971 – 2012 * Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis * Data through second quarter 2012 Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Hours Worked Percent Change from Year Ago 1976 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Recession Periods *Data through third quarter 2012

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Capacity Utilization Rate 1970 – 2012* Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis *Data through November 2012 Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company U.S. Leading Indicators 1971 – 2012* Source: The Conference Board Recession Periods *Data through November 2012

Elliott D. Pollack & Company FISCAL CLIFF 2013

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Recession? No. Slow growth? Yes. Kicking the can… Yes.

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Arizona

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Job Growth Source: US BLS 13 Jobs growing Jobs declining Top 10 Hawaii Alaska

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Alaska Job Growth 2009 Source: US BLS Jobs growing Jobs declining Top 10 Hawaii

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Alaska Jobs growing Jobs declining Top 10 Hawaii Job Growth 2012 YTD November 2012 vs YTD November 2011 Source: US BLS 50 7

Elliott D. Pollack & Company SRP Residential Utility Hookup Percentage Growth Greater Phoenix 2003 – 2012* Source: SRP *Data through July POP

Elliott D. Pollack & Company APS: Slowest Growth in over 50 years 1954 – 2012* *Data through third quarter 2012 Source: APS POP

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Arizona Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago* 1999 – 2012** Source: Arizona Department of Revenue *Data through October 2012 **3-month moving average Recession Periods 9.2% October?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Projected Net Job Growth: 2013 = 73, = 88,500 = 162,100 FISCAL CLIFF IN ARIZONA ?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company If the mandated spending cuts take place, total loss to Arizona is projected at: 45,000 to 50,000 jobs. (This does not take into account any slowdown caused by tax increases SO DOUBLE THIS NUMBER????) We will still grow, but very slowly. Remember, the “worst case” is not the most likely scenario. FISCAL CLIFF IN ARIZONA ?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Addl. Detail: Greater Phoenix

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Arizona Employment* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Sectors in Decline Net Change Other Services-1,900 Information-1,300 *November 2012/ November 2011 Sectors Improving Net Change Professional & Bus Services18,000 Trade, Transp, Utilites13,700 Education & Health Services9,100 Leisure & Hospitality7,500 Construction6,900 Financial Activities5,400 Manufacturing1,500 Government500 Natural Resources & Mining200

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Employment Levels: Greater Phoenix back to Peak in 2015? Source: ADOA Recession Periods Peak

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Maricopa County Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago* 1999 – 2012** Source: Arizona Department of Revenue *Data through October 2012 **3-month moving average Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company U.S. Single-Family Starts 1978–2012 1/ Source: Census Bureau (Millions) 1/ Through November 2012 Recession Periods Over- supply Under- supply LTA: 1.2

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Single Family Permits Greater Phoenix 1975–2016* Source: RL Brown & Elliott D. Pollack & company # Permits (000) *2012 – 2016 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Company But population growth also slid…

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Greater Phoenix Percentage of Homes Purchased with $$$ Cash $$$ 2003 – 2012* Source: Cromford Report *Data through November 2012

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Greater Phoenix Permits Source: R.L. Brown YearPermits% chg , % ,5704.4% , % , % , % 20098, % 20106, % 20116, % 2012*10,947 ytd 73.7% *Data through YTD November 2012 vs. YTD November 2011

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Home Prices Indices Greater Phoenix 1989 – 2012* Source: Macro Markets, LLC; AMLS Recession Periods *Data through October ?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Total Single Family Units Occupied by Renters Greater Phoenix Source: American Community Survey ?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Greater Tucson

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Same basic story, just different scale and timing…

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Greater Tucson MSA Employment* Annual Percent Change 1975–2012** Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration *Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in **Data through November 2012 Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Greater Tucson Employment* Source: Arizona Department of Commerce, Research Administration Sectors in Decline Information-7.3% Education & Health Services-2.3% Other Services -2.1% Government-0.6% Construction-0.6% Sectors in Growing Natural Resources & Mining5.3% Prof. & Bus. Services2.8% Financial Activities2.3% Trade, Trans. & Utilities2.3% Manufacturing0.4% Leisure & Hospitality 0.0% *Nov 2012/Nov 2011 ?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Pima County Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago 2000 – 2012* Source: Arizona Department of Revenue *Data through September 2012 Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Greater Tucson Single Family Permits 2000–2012* Source: Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter Recession Periods *Data through September 2012

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Single Family Resale Median Price Greater Tucson 2000 – 2012* Source: Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter *Data through November 2012 Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Balance of State

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Balance of State Employment* Annual Percent Change 1975–2012** Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration *Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in **Data through September 2012 Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Balance of State Employment* Source: Arizona Department of Commerce, Research Administration Sectors in Decline Information-12.5% Other Services-7.8% Government-1.4% Manufacturing-0.7% Sectors in Growing Prof. & Bus. Services17.4% Construction12.3% Leisure and Hospitality6.4% Financial Activities6.0% Education & Health Services3.1% Trade, Trans. & Utilities1.9% Natural Resources & Mining1.5% *November 2012/November 2011

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Balance of State Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago 2000 – 2012* Source: Arizona Department of Revenue *Data through September 2012 Recession Periods

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Balance of State Single Family Permits 1976–2013* Source: University of Arizona Recession Periods *2012 & 2013 are forecasts from the University of Arizona

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Why be Optimistic?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Housing?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Many renting will buy. Many doubled-up will buy. Some population growth is back. Employment growth is occurring. Retirees less bound to crappy states. Investors will not suddenly dump and run. Still producing less than “normal.” Fundamentals remain in place. “Normal” returns in 2015-ish. Growth rates will be strong now though.

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Cyclical vs. Permanent?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company How Arizona Ranks Among the States in Percentage Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis PERSONAL DECADE POPULATION EMPLOYMENT INCOME TH 3 RD 2 ND RD 3 RD 4 TH ND 3 RD 4 TH RD 3 RD 5 TH ND 2 ND 3 RD 2000 – ND 12 th 8 TH

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Arizona Outperforms the U.S.* (Non-farm Emp. Percent Change 1980 – August 2012) Recession Periods *As long as population flows continue!

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Greater Phoenix Population Annual Percent Change 1976–2013* Source: Arizona State University & Department of Commerce, Research Administration. * 2012 & 2013 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Recession Periods The Exception…

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Growth Factors Still Intact? 1. Climate 2. Lifestyle 3. Geographic Location 4. Pro-Growth Attitude 5. Competitive Tax Structure 6. Focused Incentives/Investment (i.e. transportation) 7. Leadership with Common Sense 8. Low Cost of Living 9. Congressional Delegation Working for State 10. Business & Government in Same Direction 11. ETC, ETC, ETC.

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Source: CBRE Competitiveness Map – 2012(2013?) Source : CBRE

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Benefits of the “SUNBELT” Alaska Hawaii Industrial Northwest

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Where do they come from? 1. California – Complete disaster. 2. Northeast – Too damn cold. 3. Rust Belt – No jobs. 4. Florida – Need help finding their luggage though. 5. Others…

Elliott D. Pollack & Company Top 10 States Percent of Homes with Mortgages with Negative Equity Source: Core Logic U.S.= 22.3%

Elliott D. Pollack & Company AZ will still be a top 5 economy. The economy has multiple gears. 2015/2016 is FULL recovery for AZ. The long term potential remains intact! Closing Points:

Elliott D. Pollack & Company What do you think still needs to be done? 1. Tourism coordination and enhancement? 2. Addl. economic development tools? 3. Others? Your thoughts?

Elliott D. Pollack & Company ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & Company 7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100 Scottsdale, Arizona P / F / / Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis/Modeling Real Estate Market and Feasibility Studies Litigation Support Revenue Forecasting Keynote Speaking Public Finance and Policy Development Land Use Economics Economic Development