Energy Access Tariq Banuri

Stylized Facts: Development Character: Structural Change over a generation not mere expansion. Indicators: GNP, Energy, Taxation. Examples : –Japan ( ), Scandinavian (1945 to 1980), Mediterranean (1950 to 1986), NICS (1960 to 1990), BASIC (1990-?) Challenges: –Social inequity, jobless growth, rural poverty –Environmental degradation, pollution, climate –Agricultural (even if not driver), food security

Stylized Facts: Growth Drivers: –Industry: productivity, growth potential, linkages –Energy: Contribution to growth, HD, SD –Trade: scale economy, incentives, transparency –Technology: Especially ICTs, Renewable Energy Patterns –Ride the global wave(s), rather than go-it-alone –Contagion –Role of the developmental state –Structural Adjustment and the Lost Decade

Stylized Facts: Poverty Measures –Head Count, HDI, MDGs, Equity Drivers of MDG achievement –Economic growth (first explanation) –Community based/ pro poor programs (esp for education, health, social services) –Vertical Programs (e.g., immunization) –Legislation (on rights related issues)

LOW MIDDLE HIGH

A Race of Growth and Catastrophe We cannot live without growth (Rich and Poor) –Welfare: Full employment, social services –Development: end to permanent global inequality –Peace, security, democracy, and human rights We cannot live long with current growth pattern contemporary history has become a race between growth and catastrophe

Three Strategies Developing Win the Race! Accelerate development and/or poverty efforts: food, water, health, etc Bend the Curve! Internalize Externalities: taxes, subsidies, prices and valuation Build a New Path Technology (green energy revolution, ICTs) Infrastructure Developed Beyond Growth! Convince all countries to slow down growth Transfer Technology and Finance. Continue the aid model. Build a Cooperative Program. ?

4. GE as Transition 2. GE as Good Practice SCP, Integrated Strategies, CSR, TBL, disclosure 3. GE as Good Policies Prices, taxes, subsidies, public investment, education, R&D 1. GE as Economic Sector Forests, land, water, biodiversity, energy, sanitation 5. GE as Destination Practices universalized Policies mainstreamed Incentive compatibility ensured Economic structure supportive A Green Economy?

Green Economy: good bad ugly The Poetry: The last chance for the planet. The ugly prose: Abandon growth, make huge transfers from rich to poor. The bad prose: get the prices right –the Structural Adjustment example The good prose: Develop a cooperative program, e.g., on global infrastructure investment to promote The Good, Bad, and Ugly

Energy and the Green Economy Renewable Energy central to all conceptions of green economy Approach RE as an infant industry: –Big Push: Frontload investment –Catalytic Public Funding: Finite, short term subsidy –Goal: bring about a rapid reduction in unit costs –Results: universal access in poor countries/ HH; energy services to relieve pressure on renewable as well as non-renewable natural resources; drive growth process –Global Feed in Tariff Fund Energy