Food Price Hikes and Food Security in Agrarian Societies: Assessing Childrens Vulnerability in Households, Cases from Bangladesh and Ethiopia Zenebe Bashaw Uraguchi Graduate School of International Development (GSID) Nagoya University, Japan

1. Objective and research question of the study 2. Significance of the study 3. Causes of food price hikes 4. Methodology 5. Findings and future agendas/challenges

Objective and research question of the study examines the impacts of the recent food price hikes on the extent and direction of vulnerability of children to food insecurity in households in five sub–districts of Bangladesh and Ethiopia. estimates the role that food price hikes have played in accounting/triggering or exacerbating the degree of childrens vulnerability to food insecurity in households. it also statistically tests the role of food price hikes with other possible determinants of vulnerability to food insecurity 1) Were the food price hikes important determinates of childrens vulnerability to food insecurity in households in the research sites? 2) If so, to what extent did they account the variations in childrens vulnerability to food insecurity in households in the research sites?

Significance of the study 1)understanding the impacts of food price hikes on the vulnerability of children to food insecurity serves as the base for formulating pertinent disaster prevention and preparedness policies. 2)it has also the potential for relatively increasing the efficacy of external assistance particularly social protection programs (SPPs). 3)the two cases and the food price hikes reinforce our understanding on how deeply international food markets are globalized, easily wielding strong influence on domestic food production and access. 4) the cases and food price instabilities have brought to the fore long–standing debate on measurements of food security.

Causes of food price hikes 1)falling food stocks and droughts : In 2007/2008 the ratio of global cereal stocks to utilization was estimated to be the lowest at 19.4% (FAO 2008). Increasing world population, fragmentation of arable land, and water scarcity remain arduous challenges. Major grain producers such as Australia, the US, the EU, Canada, Russia and Ukraine were hit by droughts, which led to stagnation of production and supply. 2)speculation in forward and futures trade and devaluation of US dollar : In the first quarter of 2008, it was estimated global grain futures and options rose by 32% from )increased use of grains for feedstock and production of biofules, and consumption pattern changes in emerging economies.

Methodology Field surveys in three districts of Bangladesh: Rangpur (Gangachara), Manikganj (Saturia) and Bagerhat (Sharon Khola), and two districts of Ethiopia: Tigray (Atsbi Wonberta) Wello (Kalu). The study covered randomly selected 900 households, with a combined attrition of 20% The Aggregate household food security index (AHFSI) was used to measure the food security levels of households. The household dietary index (HDDS) was used to measure the consumption patterns of households Together with the HDDS, the coping strategy index (CSI) was used to measure the level of households vulnerability to food insecurity. Concentration curves and Logistic regression

Findings With the exception of Saturia and Sharon Khola in Bangladesh, all the districts were in chronic food insecurity level.

The overall dietary diversity score was not encouraging, and 24 hour observations showed children and other family members heavily relied on few food items. Bangladesh: HDDS < 6 and CSI <107 Ethiopia: HDDS <6.2 and CSI <107 consumption of food was correlated to the income level of households. concentration curves showed the cumulative distribution of malnutrition was below the diagonal line, in which child malnutrition is highly concentrated among low income households.

Concentration curves for income and child malnutrition in Bangladesh Concentration curves for income and child malnutrition in Ethiopia

List of Coping Strategies (seasonal) 1. Eat less preferred food 2. Reduce the number of meals per day 3. Borrow money from relatives to buy food and seek work in urban or other rural areas (laborer, rickshaw puller) 4. Borrow food from relatives or neighbors 5. Gather or eat wild foods 6. Skip meal for the whole day by adult members of the household 7. Send children to eat with relatives or neighbors 8. Limit meal portion size of children 9. Consume seed stock kept for the next season 10. Skip meal by the entire family for the whole day 11. Begging

At the peak of the food price hikes, the highest seasonal coping strategies were adopted in all the research sites

Summary of Logistic regression results -The estimates for the coefficients for the predictors in this model represented the change in the logit of the outcome variable. -An increase in the price of food was statistically significant in accounting childrens vulnerability to food insecurity in households. -An increase in food price by one US dollar would have the probability of decreasing the HDDS and increasing the CIS of a household by -2.5 in Bangladesh in Ethiopia

Socio–demographic model (family size, education and household head): only education and family size were found to be significant in accounting for changes in childrens vulnerability to food insecurity in households both in Bangladesh and Ethiopia. Agricultural inputs model (farm size measured in hectares, cattle (oxen and cows) measured in TLU, fertilizer use in kilograms and water availability constituting irrigation/dam): Only farm size and fertilizer use were found to be statistically significant in predicting the probability of childrens vulnerability to food insecurity in households both in Bangladesh and Ethiopia. Economic/income model (remittance, non–farm income, credit and project participation or aid receipt): All the predictors except remittance were found to be statistically significant in explaining childrens vulnerability to food insecurity in households.

Full model: Bangladesh: Seven predictors (food price hikes, household head, family size, farm size, non–farm income and fertilizer) Ethiopia: five predictors (food price hikes, education, farm size, non–farm income and project participation/aid receipt) Suggests, food price hikes, alone or in combination with other variables, accounted predicting the probability of childrens vulnerability to food insecurity in households of both countries. Strengthening income and agricultural resource base of households tend to serve as enhancing the coping strategies of households reinforces the need for prevention and preparedness aspects of rural development interventions Food availability decline (FAD) and food entitlement decline (FED) the base, but understanding the determinants of vulnerability and coping strategies highly important for addressing food consumption and utilization decline (FCUD).

Future agendas and challenges 1)addressing environmental degradation 2)external assistance and in particular food aid and its contribution in terms of supporting social protection programs (SPPs) 3)role of institutions mainly the state and the market as well as NGOs (also known as the Third Sector) in attending to the concerns and demands of vulnerable groups.