INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 2013–2014 Update Tenth Edition Joshua S. Goldstein Jon C. Pevehouse Chapter Four: Foreign Policy

U.S. officials watch Osama bin Laden raid, 2011.

4.1 Making Foreign Policy Models of Decision Making Individual Decision Makers Group Psychology Crisis Management

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Models of Decision Making Rational model Alternatives to rational model

Individual Decision Makers Decision makers are individuals. National leaders and rational decisions Individuals: differing values and beliefs, unique personalities Individual vs. rational Impact of the individual

Foreign policies often deviate from rationality as a result of the misperceptions and biases of decision makers and populations. Here, in 2012, North Korea’s new dictator Kim Jong-Un rides a roller coaster that could symbolize the West’s efforts to curtail his country’s nuclear weapons program. These weapons will pose a much greater threat if Kim, who took over in 2011, is an irrational madman than if he turns out to be a shrewdly rational actor. FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS

Positive and negative effects Psychological dynamics that occur within groups Structure of decision-making process Group Psychology

Both individual misperception and group psychology encourage overconfidence and excessive optimism among decision makers. This general tendency in every government especially marked the period of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Here, President Bush declares victory on an aircraft carrier, May FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS

Crisis Management Crises – outcomes and time frames Groupthink, psychological stress, sleep deprivation

Crisis management takes a high toll psychologically and physiologically. President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia seems to show this strain in 1992— the beginning of years of civil war and perpetual crisis in that country. Shevardnadze, formerly a Soviet foreign minister, had returned to lead his native Georgia when the Soviet Union dissolved. He left office in 2003 after a popular uprising against corruption. WORKING UNDER STRESS

4.1 Making Foreign Policy Q. The rational model of decision-making involves which of the following sequence of steps? A. Clarify goals, order goals by importance, list alternatives to achieve goals, investigate consequences of alternatives, and choose the course of action. B. Order goals by importance, list alternatives to achieve goals, clarify goals, investigate consequences of alternatives, and choose the course of action. C. List alternatives to achieve goals, order goals by importance, investigate consequences of alternatives, clarify goals, and choose the course of action. D. Clarify goals, list alternatives to achieve goals, investigate consequences of alternatives, order goals by importance, and choose the course of action.

Answer: A. Clarify goals, order goals by importance, list alternatives to achieve goals, investigate consequences of alternatives, and choose the course of action.

In the rational model decision making process uncertainty rarely plays a role. True-False

Answer: False.

Bureaucracies Interest Groups The Military-Industrial Complex Public Opinion Legislatures 4.2 Domestic Influences

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Bureaucracies Diplomats Interagency tensions

Interest Groups Coalitions with common interest who attempt to shape decision outcomes Lobbying

Foreign policies are affected by the pulling and tugging of various domestic interest groups. Legislatures respond to these groups, constituencies, lobbyists, and media. These interested parties pack the U.S. Senate confirmation hearing for the new secretary of state, John Kerry, in DOMESTIC BREW

The Military Industrial Complex Interlocking network of governmental agencies, industrial corporations, and research institutes Eisenhower’s concern about “unwarranted” influence Revolving door

Public Opinion Democracies vs. authoritarian governments Propaganda Journalists Levels of public – “mass,” attentive, elite Rally ’round the flag syndrome Diversionary foreign policy

Israeli Prime Minister and Palestinian negotiator, 2012.

Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe

Legislatures Relationship with executive – presidential vs. parliamentary systems Power of the Purse

Foreign policy outcomes result from processes at several levels of analysis, including the roles of individuals. All these levels were in play in 2011–2013 as Syria went from protest to civil war. In 2012, this father chose, like many other individuals, to take up arms and join rebel fighters. The country’s future will be decided in no small part by the aggregation of many such individual decisions. INDIVIDUAL CHOICE

4.2 Domestic Politics Q. Of the following goals, which are pursued by bureaucrats in the foreign policy decision-making process? A. Groupthink B. Liberal analysis C. National goals D. Political domination

Answer: C. National goals

True-False The planning and pursuit of the Cold War played in integral role in the conception and growth of American military-industrial complex.

Answer: True

Chapter Discussion Question Given the definitions of groupthink, and using the example of the Iran-Contra affair, and of the war in Iraq, what are at least two examples of groupthink pulled from recent headlines?