Regional Workshop on Science, Technology and Innovation Indicators for Gulf countries Four Seasons Hotel, Doha, Qatar 15 to 17 October 2012 STI indicators for evidence-based policy making Michael Kahn Research and Innovation Associates, South Africa

STI indicators for evidence-based policy making Evidence-based policy making Science, technology, innovation and change Basic tenets of STI policy Measurement of STI

Evidence-based policy making Tests theory - why will the policy be effective and likely impacts if successful Include a counterfactual: what would have occurred if the policy had not been implemented Incorporate some measurement of the impact Examines both direct and indirect effects that occur because of the policy (unintended consequences) Separates the uncertainties and controls for other influences outside of the policy that may have an effect on the outcome Empirical validation

Why innovation? A widely accepted view has emerged that innovation is the key to economic growth and societal well-being. Hence the OECD Innovation Strategy (OECD, 2010), China’s view of innovation as contributing to the ‘green and harmonious’ development’ of a socialist society. President Obama’s declaration that “innovation is more important than ever. It is the key to good- paying, private-sector jobs for the American people.’

World Economic Forum categorizes economies

Science, technology, innovation and change

R&D led growth: – ‘give us (taxpayers) money; we’ll give you results’ Statist (USSR, India, China < 1978) : Academies of Science + state laboratories Corporatist: (Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, SA 1978) – government and industry combines – zaibatsu, chaebols, mining houses define agenda, use state protection to develop niche technological competences. Stagflation in the West ICT revolution; globalization; rise of BRIC; Innovation the new mantra Innovation and Economic Growth

Tenets of STI policy: what is innovation?

Government as innovator Social innovation User-driven innovation Informal sector innovation

Innovation policy (OECD) “Innovation policy has developed as an amalgam of science and technology policy and industrial policy. It takes as a given that knowledge in all its forms plays a crucial role in economic progress, and that innovation is a complex and systemic phenomenon. Systems approaches to innovation shift the focus of policy towards an emphasis on the interplay of institutions and the interactive processes at work in the creation of knowledge and in its diffusion and application. The term “national innovation system” has been coined to represent this set of institutions and these knowledge flows.”

Intervention of the State through public policy; Impact of education on human capital development; Role of industrial structure Understand how enterprises design their strategies of research and development (R&D); Rate of technical change and of economic growth depend more on efficient diffusion than on being first in the world with radical innovations and as much on social innovations as on technical innovations. Systemic aspects of innovation influence rate of diffusion and productivity Interplay between R&D and other innovation activities Innovation Systems (Freeman)

An innovation System UNIVERSITIES + ACADEMIES? BUSINESS GOVT. DEPTS INSTITUTES & MUSEUMS S&T SERVICES UTILITIES PUBLIC SECTOR Regulatory, ethical & legal, environmental, IPR Cultural- Political norms Associations EDUCATION TRAINING SKILLS DEV STANDARDS WORLD SYSTEM S.O.E.s NGOs INFORMAL SECTOR ECONOMIC SYSTEM

Innovation activities Acquisition of machinery, technology & software Observing & listening Invention & prototyping Collaborating Financing‘Borrowing’ Staff trainingOrganization & process change Staff mobilityConformance Reverse engineeringScientific publication R&DIP protection

Accountability for spending of public funds requires: – Informed strategy and forecasting – Indicator-based joined-up policy – Coordination of plans and budgets – Monitoring – Measurement and evaluation of programmes and projects – Benchmarking – Learning Measurement of STI

“The S&T system … (involves) three types of activities: Generation of S&T Knowledge Transmission of S&T Knowledge Use of S&T Knowledge The dynamics of the S&T system involves the flow from the site of the S&T knowledge generation to the site of the use, which requires a means of transmission to get from one site to the other, and capacities to transmit and to search and absorb. The dynamics of S&T involves the linkages between actors (individuals or organizations), the buying of embedded knowledge, the hiring of employees with S&T expertise, the acquisition of codified knowledge, and the diffusion of S&T information. To facilitate discussion of the dynamics, there must be a means of classifying activities, linkages and outcomes.” Statistics Canada (1998) What to measure?

Inputs: R&D Surveys Inputs: Human Resource surveys – Education statistics; Higher education statistics; mobility; labour force survey Inputs: infrastructure Intermediate outputs: scientific publications; patents; design; copyright; Outputs: Prototypes; Plant varieties Outcomes: Innovation Survey 22 Measurement

Shares of world R&D expenditure (GERD) by principal regions/countries, 2002 and 2007 (%) Source: UIS estimates, September 2009