Challenges of the food, fertilizer and fuel price crisis in West and Central Africa Interagency Meeting 7 October 2008 Dakar

High Food Prices in West Africa In West-Africa recent sharp increases in food, fertilizer and fuel prices pose a serious threat to an already fragile situation in terms of food and nutrition security. Social implications of rising food prices have resulted in riots and demonstrations in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote dIvoire, Mauritania, Senegal and Niger.

Macroeconomic impact Budgetary impact of increased food and fuel subsidies, tax exemptions, etc (for 2008, IMF): –Benin: 1.5% of GDP –Burkina Faso: 1.3% of GDP –Guinea-Bissau: 10% of tax revenue –Mali: 1.8% of GDP Reduction in growth, due to higher fuel prices and fiscal adjustment increase in unemployment and underemployment? Risk of reduction in public expenditure on basic social services

What is the impact on households? Impact on monetary poverty Impact on household expenditure: substitution effects Nutritional impacts Agriculture impact Possible impacts on education, use of health services and child labour

Impact on monetary poverty Ex-ante simulation of the impact of rice prices on the poverty headcount in Liberia – World Bank, Based on CWIQ data

Impact on household expenditure: substitution effects Liberia Greater Monrovia (Source: Liberia Joint Survey on the Impact of high prices) Burkina Faso. In Ouaga and Bobo, for the very poor: Reduction in protein consumption Increased buying of street food as opposed to buying. Substitution towards filling foods.

Impacts on education and health Liberia In Burkina (Ouaga and Bobo) increase in drop out rates due to manque de moyens, drop in attendance.

Nutritional impacts Prevalence of Acute Malnutrition in children 6-59m in Mauritania

Challenges and Opportunities Strengthening the evidence base –Data –Analysis Bridging current emergency activities with long- term development programmes. –Strengthening the agriculture supply response –Strengthening the social protection system Improving coordination between: –Governments –Regional Economic Communities –International Agencies.