THE FOURTH TURNING An American Prophecy William Strauss Neil Howe 1997
WHAT IS A TURNING? A FOUR CYCLE PHASE OF HISTORICAL TIME A FOUR CYCLE PHASE OF HISTORICAL TIME COVERING YEARS (A SAECULUM) COVERING YEARS (A SAECULUM) ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A FULL HUMAN LIFE ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A FULL HUMAN LIFE INCLUDING FOUR GENERATIONS INCLUDING FOUR GENERATIONS
WHAT IS A “TURNING”? CHARACTERIZED BY SUCCEEDING “SEASONS” 1. GROWTH AND STRENGTH (HIGH) 2. AWAKENING AND MATURATION 3. ENTROPY AND UNRAVELING 4. CRISIS AND DESTRUCTION
WHAT IS A “TURNING”? GENERATIONS SHAPED BY SEASON OF BIRTH Prophet generation born during HIGH Prophet generation born during HIGH Nomad generation born during AWAKENING Nomad generation born during AWAKENING Hero generation born during UNRAVELING Hero generation born during UNRAVELING Artist generation born during CRISIS Artist generation born during CRISIS
WHAT IS A “SAECULUM”? ANCIENT ETRUSCAN (BellaToscana!) TERM ANCIENT ETRUSCAN (BellaToscana!) TERM ADOPTED BY THE ROMANS ADOPTED BY THE ROMANS A FULL FOUR PHASE HUMAN LIFE A FULL FOUR PHASE HUMAN LIFE –Childhood (Spring) –Rising Adult (Summer) –Middle Age (Fall) –Elder (Winter) HENCE “AN AGE” – History in your bones! HENCE “AN AGE” – History in your bones!
HISTORIOGRAPHICAL INTERLUDE HOW SHALL WE THINK ABOUT TIME? CIRCLE o LINESPIRAL
“Turnings” of the “War Cycle” Overture: Italian Wars ( ) Overture: Italian Wars ( ) 1st Cycle:(Phillip II Imperial Wars ( ) 1st Cycle:(Phillip II Imperial Wars ( ) 2nd Cycle: War of Sp. Succession( ) 2nd Cycle: War of Sp. Succession( ) 3 rd Cycle: French Rev./Napoleonic( ) 3 rd Cycle: French Rev./Napoleonic( ) 4 th Cycle: WWI-WWII ( ) 4 th Cycle: WWI-WWII ( )
AWAKENING CYCLE Protestant Reformation (1530s-1540s) Protestant Reformation (1530s-1540s) Puritan Awakening (1630s-1640s) Puritan Awakening (1630s-1640s) Pietist Awakening (1740s-1750s) Pietist Awakening (1740s-1750s) Evangelical-Utopian Awakening (1830s- 40s) Evangelical-Utopian Awakening (1830s- 40s) New Age Awakening (1960s-1970s) New Age Awakening (1960s-1970s)
Modern American Life Cycle Childhood: receiving, acquiring Childhood: receiving, acquiring Young Adult (21-41) –serving, testing Young Adult (21-41) –serving, testing Midlife (42-62) power; managing, applying Midlife (42-62) power; managing, applying Elderhood (63-83) leadership; transferring Elderhood (63-83) leadership; transferring Late Elder (84+) dependence; remembering Late Elder (84+) dependence; remembering
Generations and WWII Birth Years PROGRESSIVE W. Wilson MISSIONARY FDR LOST Eisenhower G.I JFK SILENT M. DUKAKIS BOOM BILL CLINTON 13 TH /XER TOM CRUISE MILLENNIAL CLASS 2000
GENERATIONS COMING OF AGE PROGRESSIVE: 1876 Edison, Westinghouse PROGRESSIVE: 1876 Edison, Westinghouse MISSIONARY: 1896 Populism Wm J. Bryan MISSIONARY: 1896 Populism Wm J. Bryan MISSIONARY:1918 Doughboys; Paris MISSIONARY:1918 Doughboys; Paris G.I.:1935CCC/WPA G.I.:1935CCC/WPA SILENT:1954McCarthy/ Cold War SILENT:1954McCarthy/ Cold War BOOMERS:1969Woodstock BOOMERS:1969Woodstock 13 th /Xer:1992Media Discover Xers 13 th /Xer:1992Media Discover Xers MILLENNIAL2001 9/11?__________ MILLENNIAL2001 9/11?__________
GENERATIONS AND ARCHETYPES Prometheus Dionysus Apollo Epimetheus Spring Summer Fall Winter Traditional Agnostic Dogmatic Innovative Reason Intuition Feeling Sensation NT SP NF SJ NT SP NF SJ Hero Artist Prophet Nomad G.I. Silent Boom 13 th /Xer
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?