The Next New Energy Thing Ron Swenson August 9,

More people are catching on to Peak Oil… But what are we going to do when it’s gone?

Swenson’s Law To avoid deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution.

Time Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment begin investment before decline Net Energy Production Begin investment during decline

What do the “experts” have to offer?

The Party's Over “Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.” Richard Heinberg

Beyond Oil “Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities...” Kenneth S. Deffeyes

I thought we were talking about Energy!? So how did Economics (an instrument of policy) get into the picture?

Oil, Jihad & Destiny “Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.” Ronald R. Cooke

The Long Emergency “… solar power... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel … James Howard Kunstler

“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is consuming...” Pierre Chomat Oil Addiction: The World in Peril

“[While] the costs of wind, solar and biomass have declined due to steady technical advances, in key areas of energy quality—density, net energy, intermittency, flexibility, and so on—they remain inferior to conventional fuels… Cutler Cleveland The Oil Drum, only yesterday

Energy State and Quality (Grade) “In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels. Cutler Cleveland So let me explain how this works: First, you invent a new term with emotional overtones – quality – to describe a very simple mechanical concept – concentration. Then you use that term to promote your agenda.

Energy State and Quality (Grade) “In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels. [  ] “ The EROI for fossil fuels tends to be large while that for solar tends to be low. “Higher energy densities also contribute to the higher EROI for fossil fuels relative to many renewable fuels.” Cutler Cleveland Tell that to a street vendor in Mexico City. … and what was the premise of converting solar field energy into fuel in the first place? … unless you consider depletion, ecological footprint of extraction, or the implications of ephemeral technology. Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

Global Solar Energy Balance Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)178,000 Reflected to Space Immediately53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100 Total Energy Used by Human Society 13 Total Energy Used by US Society2.5 Total Human Food Energy 0.6

We have a huge allowance … We just have to do our homework!

Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” ( )

Transportation runs on oil … … So let’s focus on that. What can we learn from history? How did transportation morph … from solid fuels (hay and then coal)… to liquid fuels (oil)? And where do we go from here?

Lest we forget … They did bring coal to Newcastle.

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

No joke! The original buggy whip protest

The Horseless Carriage

From GridLock to Gas Lines

Now we turn back to Corn for Cars & Beans for Buses?

The All-New DonCar!

It is criminal to burn food in cars. If there were no alternative, we could perhaps tolerate some experimentation. But there is an alternative… and it is better in so many ways.

Internal Combustion … Take 26.5 Quads of oil Turn 21.2 into smoke Use 5.3 to run things … How incredibly wasteful!?

So what are we going to do? Basky

Remember, Sunshine is … … a field … … not a fuel !

Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… Touch? … and it is ephemeral, like solar power. See? A match made in heaven. Lift?

The Electric Rail

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

Freeway at Capacity

Vehicles Removed

PRT Passengers

PRT System

What is PRT? Personal Rapid Transit (Pod cars) Created in 1970s, Morgantown, WV 1-4 passengers Driverless Solar powered, electric drive Non-stop to destination Vectus, Sweden, 2007 ULTra, London Heathrow, 2008

Solar on Rail

SkyTran Solar Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

Solar on Rail

Similar Solar Systems Exist

PRT advantages 1.Faster 2.Safer 3.Quieter 4.Cheaper 5.Less energy 6.Zero emissions 7.Helps transit-oriented development 8.Driverless = enjoyable commute time

PRT considerations Requires government approval Sometimes obstructs views Upfront investment => long-term savings Complex software ~ air traffic control Overcome entrenched interests

Where is the PRT track?

Transportation Energy for 100 People Battery ElectricPRT Vehicles10020 Total weight (tons)2005 Battery weight (tons)251 Recycle batteries? %99% Embodied energy ratio501 Battery losses15%<1% Rolling Resistance (at 60 mph)5000 watt500 watt Aerodynamic Drag (at 60 mph)7000 watt (cd=0.2)750 watt (cd=0.1) Parasitic energy Consumption2756 Energy use (watt-hr/mile) ~150~50 (skytran) Safety≈ two 747s/week dieVery safe Quality of life1 hr per day lostQuality time in transit

30 mph, operating speed x 2 sec (vehicle interval) = 88 ft between vehicles = 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified x 2 operating speed = 120 kw needed in a mile stretch 10 hrs at peak operation equivalent ÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6) = 2.5 solar factor 120 x 2.5 = 300 kW/mile x $6.00 /watt $1,800,000 /mi 16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market 3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile

25 mpg, average fleet mileage 27,000 passengers per day to match 2.0 people/vehicle 13,500 vehicles/day x $2.50 /gallon fuel price = $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily $ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage $ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage = 3.7 years payback for solar system to offset gasoline Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.

Solar Industry Response? Goals 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠ 200 gW by 2030 = 10% How to get there? Federal government procurement $100 m/year R&D investment $250 m/year by 2010 “Enact, modify, establish, boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…” Inadequate InconsistentInconsistent

At least somebody gets it! Richard Smalley discovered “Bucky Balls” – Fullerenes

The Terawatt Challenge 14.5 Terawatts 220 M BOE/day Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day The Basis of Prosperity 20 st Century = Oil 21 st Century = Renewables

120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth

Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand

PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! “Think TeraWatts”

More information about Net Yield

Thermodynamics of Coal Plus… Greenhouse gases Ravaged land Water contamination People displaced Extraction uses oil EROI = 9  27 ~ electric quality 1 BOE

Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … Pennsylvania? Saudi Arabia? Off-shore? Plus … Ravaged land/oceans Greenhouse gases Water contamination EROI = 10±

EROI = 4  12 ~ electric Thermodynamics of Nuclear Plus … Depletion Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process Waste guard for 10,000+ years … How do we value a 1,000 + year wasteland?

Thermodynamics of Tar Sands Plus… Greenhouse gases Ravaged land Water contamination Extraction uses natural gas EROI = 3 Why bother?!

Thermodynamics of Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROI = -½

Thermodynamics of PV EROI: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROI = 10  30 ~ electric

Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV EROI: 6 months Life: 20 years EROI = 40  120 ~electric

Thermodynamics of Wind EROI: 3 months Life: 20 years EROI = 80  240 ~ electric

Back to State & Quality (grade) … How does ERoEI analysis embrace these factors? Time / sustainability oil depletion: Inevitable degradation of quality. solar endurance: “Low” quality starts to make sense. Land use / ecological footprint Uranium tailings: Most dense becomes the most diffuse. Open pit coal mines: Density depends on measuring stick. It’s even an issue with Solar: PV on roofs ≠ PV in deserts. Security / Energy drain on future generations Nuclear Power  M.A.D.: ERoEI goes astronomically negative. Oil Wars: How much energy does it take to protect energy? Solar: Power satellites are weapons, not energy technology. Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

Taking it one step further … You may think I’m pushing solar? Yes and no. The main point is … Prevailing sentiments cannot blind us from seeing the solutions with the best ERoEI… And we cannot be fixated on direct substitution of oil with liquid fuels, especially given the historic role of oil and the myriad advantages of electric transport.

Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place… ERoEI of biofuels may be too low for urban transport… (not to mention smog, congestion, hazard) Fuels will remain essential for: Airplanes Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs) Agriculture

ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

The conclusions are simple: We are not doing enough fast enough. To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives. Then we must act quickly with resolve. Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?