Land Market Monitoring: Beyond Land Supply Gerrit-Jan Knaap Professor and Director National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education University of Maryland

Monitoring Infrastructure Points, lines, and polygons Points, lines, and polygons The concept of service capacity The concept of service capacity The concept of capacity consumption The concept of capacity consumption

Monitoring School Systems and Plans Leal Elementary School

Monitoring Park Systems and Plans King (Neighborhood)Park

Monitoring Sewer Systems and Plans

Monitoring Road Systems and Plans Lincoln Avenue between Pennsylvania and Florida

Monitoring Residential Land Markets Population, Acres, Housing units, Population, Acres, Housing units, Annexations, building permits, zone changes Annexations, building permits, zone changes Days of inventory Days of inventory

Residential Development,

Residential Vacant Tracts,

Residential Vacant Lots,

Housing Starts, Maryland Counties Sources: Census and National Association of Homebuilders

Housing Starts, Regions Sources: Census and National Association of Homebuilders

Monitoring Housing Prices

Existing Single Family Home Prices, Regions Source: National Association of Homebuilders

New Single Family Home Prices, Regions Source: Census New Residential Sales Index

House Price Index Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)

Existing Single Family Home Prices, Maryland Counties Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. and National Association of Homebuilders

Monitoring Rents

Monitoring Affordability

Monitoring Housing Supply

Monitoring Housing “Match”

Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating Urban Form

(1) Street Design and Circulation Systems: (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems: Int_Connectivity – ratio of the number of street intersections versus the sum of intersections and cul-de-sacs (Criterion, 1999);Int_Connectivity – ratio of the number of street intersections versus the sum of intersections and cul-de-sacs (Criterion, 1999);

Internal Connectivity

(1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued): (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued): Ext_Connectivity – median distance between Ingress/Egress (access) points in feet (Criterion, 1999);Ext_Connectivity – median distance between Ingress/Egress (access) points in feet (Criterion, 1999);

(1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued): (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued): Blocks_Peri – median value of perimeter of the blocks in a neighborhood;Blocks_Peri – median value of perimeter of the blocks in a neighborhood; Blocks – number of blocks divided by number of housing units;Blocks – number of blocks divided by number of housing units;

(1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued): (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued): Length_Cul-De-Sac_ St – median value of length of cul-de-sac streets;Length_Cul-De-Sac_ St – median value of length of cul-de-sac streets; Rt_Cul-De-Sac_Units – proportion of housing units that are located by the Cul-De-Sacs in a neighborhood;Rt_Cul-De-Sac_Units – proportion of housing units that are located by the Cul-De-Sacs in a neighborhood;

(2) Pedestrian Walkability Characteristics: (2) Pedestrian Walkability Characteristics: Ped_Com – percentage of SFR units within walkable distance of commercial uses;Ped_Com – percentage of SFR units within walkable distance of commercial uses; Ped_Transit – percentage of SFR units within walkable distance of transit stations;Ped_Transit – percentage of SFR units within walkable distance of transit stations;

(3) Land-use Characteristics: (3) Land-use Characteristics: Mix – actual area of commercial, industrial and public land uses in the neighborhood divided by number of housing units in a neighborhood;Mix – actual area of commercial, industrial and public land uses in the neighborhood divided by number of housing units in a neighborhood;

(3) Land-use Characteristics (Continued): (3) Land-use Characteristics (Continued): Lot_size – the median value of the area of lot size in square foot in a neighborhood;Lot_size – the median value of the area of lot size in square foot in a neighborhood; Pop_Denisty – the number of households divided by the area of the neighborhood;Pop_Denisty – the number of households divided by the area of the neighborhood; SFRDU_Density – SFR housing units divided by the area of the neighborhood;SFRDU_Density – SFR housing units divided by the area of the neighborhood;

(4) Accessibility Characteristics: (4) Accessibility Characteristics: Comdis – distance in feet to the nearest commercial use;Comdis – distance in feet to the nearest commercial use; Busdis – distance in feet to the nearest bus station;Busdis – distance in feet to the nearest bus station; Parkdis – distance in feet to the nearest park;Parkdis – distance in feet to the nearest park;

Urban Form Measurements (Unit of measurements) Forest Glen Orenco Station Trend of changesPrice Premium of Orenco (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems: Internal Connectivity_Beta Decreased until 1990, then reversed + External Street Connectivity (feet between access points) Increased all the time+ Length_Street (feet)95204 No change+ Block Perimeter (feet) Increased until 1991, then reversed + Number of Blocks per Housing Unit Decreased until 1992, then reversed + Median Length of Cul-De-Sacs (feet) Decreased all the time+ (2) Density: Lot Size (Square feet) Decreased all the time- Floor Space (Square feet) Increased all the time- Pop_Density (#person/acre) No change- DU_Density (#Units/acre) Increased all the time, but expedited after

Urban Form Measurements (Unit of measurements) Forest Glen Orenco Station Trend of changesPrice Premium of Orenco (3) Land Use Mix: Entropy Index Including SFR area (1 = evenly distributed) No change- Entropy Index Excluding SFR area (1 = evenly distributed) No change+ (4) Accessibility Characteristics: Median Linear Distance to Nearest Commercial Use (feet) Decreased until 1990, then reversed - Median Distance to Nearest Park (feet) Decreased all the time+ (5) Pedestrian Walkability: Percent of SFR Units within ¼- Mile Network Distance of Commercial Use478 Decreased until 1990, then reversed + Percent of SFR Units within ¼- Mile Network Distance of Bus Stops34100 Decreased until 1993, then reversed -

Better Information leads to Better Land Management Decisions Infrastructure Capacity Infrastructure Capacity Housing Market Indicators Housing Market Indicators Prices, Starts, Vacancy Prices, Starts, Vacancy Urban Form Urban Form Connectivity, Land Use, Density, Accessibility Connectivity, Land Use, Density, Accessibility Better Decisions leads to Better Urban Environments Better Decisions leads to Better Urban Environments