Report of the Scientific Assessment Panel 20th Meeting of the Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol 16-20 November 2008 Doha, Qatar Cochairs:

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Presentation transcript:

Report of the Scientific Assessment Panel 20th Meeting of the Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol November 2008 Doha, Qatar Cochairs: Ayité-Lo Ajavon (Togo) Paul A. Newman (USA) John A. Pyle (UK) A.R. Ravishankara (USA) Todays Summary: status of the 2010 report of the Scientific Assessment Panel

A birds eye view of 2010 assessment Key ongoing issues - Levels and trends of ODS and their substitutes, with emphasis on HCFCs - Levels of ozone and its trends - Our understanding of the atmospheric science as it relates to ozone layer changes What is new in science - The impact of climate change on ozone layer recovery; impact on when the layer will recover - The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its changes Specifically the the Terms of the Parties from September 2007 (19th MOP, Decision XIX/20)

Contents of 2010 Science Assessment Science topics to be addressed (Decision XIX/20): assess the state of the ozone layer and its future evolution evaluate recent Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic ozone depletion behavior evaluate trends of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere assess the impacts of climate change on ozone layer analyze atmospheric concentrations of bromine and implications for the ozone-layer describe surface ultraviolet radiation observations and future expectations assess interaction between tropospheric and stratospheric ozone assess approaches to evaluating very short-lived substances

A Request to the Parties Preparatory work for the assessment has started November 4, from UNEP to the Parties, seeking nominations of participants Participation also leads to capacity building Replies requested by December 19, 2008 Previous participants need not be renominated; they will be considered again Replies to be sent to UNEP contact:

The 2010 Science Assessment Immediate Next Steps: Request nominations of experts o Cochairs determine Chapter structure o Determine Chapter Lead Authors o Chapter Teams form, Chapter preparation begins o Lead Author meeting to review Chapter first drafts Reviews and revisions Final review and release Nomination of Experts Determine Chapter Structure and Leads LA Meeting, First Chapter Drafts Oct-Dec 19 Dec/Jan Nov-Dec Feb-Oct Prepare Chapter First Drafts 2010 Jan-July Reviews Revisions On going

Steps for Assessment: Dates and Tasks Draft outline completed. Lead Authors, Coauthors established Chapter outlines drafted Early 2009: Lead Authors meeting (location?). Late October: 1st drafts due; circulated for internal review. End of 2009: Internal review meeting, Lead Authors, Steering Committee, and a few others. (Washington, USA?) February 2006: 2 nd drafts complete and mail peer review starts. April: mail reviews due; third draft preparation begins. Mid-May: Third draft due; distributed to Panel reviewers. Summer 2010: Panel Review: (Les Diablerets, Switzerland ?) >Lead Authors & a few Coauthors. >~30-40 reviewers. >Final decisions on chapters. >Completed Executive Summary. Late July: Chapters completed. 30 December: preprint volume to UNEP for government distribution. March 2011: final printed copies available

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