Solar Power Potential with PRT Ron Swenson ATRA Santa Cruz 2006 November 18

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … The Elevator Speech Without solar, energy independence is pure rhetoric. Clinton’s New Generation Vehicle Arnold’s Hydrogen Highway GM’s Yellow Gas Cap Bush’s Cellulosic Ethanol. Only solar energy will do the job. Solar is sufficient to power high capacity PRT percent -- using only the system’s 4’ to 8’ right of way.

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … A Little Personal History

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Objective To demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate oil substitute, and is in fact the only viable transport alternative. Context: Collosal issues are forcing us to rethink our options… Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid fossil fuels. Global Warming will force out coal and uranium. Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate scale. Social Equity will prevail against war for oil. Solution: Solar PRT the only transport option that offers… Politics: Energy Independence Economics: Quick Payback Science: Good Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) Environment: Carbon Divestment

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: Global Warming

Global Warming over the Past Millennium Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20 th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.

Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries Tons CO 2 per person Tons of CO 2 per Thousand 1995 US Dollars

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: Peak Oil

Can Solar Energy Replace Oil? We know the peak is coming … but what can we do about it?

American Consumers Do Understand

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: BioFuels

Net Production of Biomass in the USA

The All-New DonCar!

There is no S SS Silver Bullet. Silver Why Silver in the first place? The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. Specific gravity of Pb = AgSpecific gravity of Ag = Ag Ag

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: Social Equity

Swenson’s Law To avoid deprivation resulting from the exhaustion of non- renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.

Time Consequence of Delayed Investment begin investment before decline Net Energy Production Begin investment during decline

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Energy Independence

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Non-Oil, Power Exporting … Countries…(Sweden, Iceland..) Cities… (Santa Cruz?) Colleges… (UCSC?) Companies… (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day) Citizens… (You and I?) But “energy independence” is an elusive goal. To get a clue, let’s go back to the future…

Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” ( )

Global Solar Energy Balance Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)178,000 Reflected to Space Immediately53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100 Total Energy Used by Human Society 13 Total Energy Used by US Society2.5 Total Human Food Energy 0.6

120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth

Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand

PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr Peak

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … The Solution: Solar PRT

Solar on Rail

SkyTran Solar Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

jPod Solar

Similar Solar Systems Exist

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Economics

30 mph, operating speed x 2 sec (vehicle interval) = 88 ft between vehicles = 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified x 2 operating speed = 120 kw needed in a mile stretch 10 hrs at peak operation equivalent ÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6) = 2.5 solar factor 120 x 2.5 = 300 kW/mile x $6.00 /watt $1,800,000 /mi 16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market 3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile

Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel

1.5 people/vehicle 2,700 passengers per hour at full capacity 27,000 passengers per day Calculate Passengers per Day

25 mpg, average fleet mileage 27,000 passengers per day to match 2.0 people/vehicle 13,500 vehicles/day x $2.50 /gallon fuel price = $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily $ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage $ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage = 3.7 years, Payback for solar system to offset gasoline Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Science

Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … Pennsylvania? Saudi Arabia? Off-shore? Plus … Ravaged land/oceans Greenhouse gases Water contamination EROI = 10± And it’s getting worse…

Thermodynamics of PV EROI: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROI = 10  30 ~ electric And it’s getting better…

Environment

Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

Back to solid fuels? A team of horses uses 10 tons of feed per year. How much more would a tractor need?

Lessons from History! The original buggy whip protest!

Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… Touch it? … It is ephemeral, like solar power. See it? A match made in heaven. Can you lift it?

The Electric Rail

Solar PRT

Solarevolution™ More at

Additional Information More about Global Conditions More about California Conditions More about Santa Cruz Conditions More about PRT More History More about Ethanol More about TeraWatts

More about Global Conditions: Peak Oil

Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth

Consumption by Sector, USA

Wishful Thinking: Energy Futures

Oil Market Paradigms “Seven Sisters” Oil shocks OPEC manages market OPEC has to meet new demand Conservation, new fuels, new technologies Non-OPEC - FSU OPEC FSU OPEC Used with permission by Peter Wells

USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030 $10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants Cumulative World Energy Investment by Energy Use

More about Global Conditions: Global Warming

CO 2 Reduction Target

Breakdown of CO 2 Emissions

More about Global Conditions: Conventional Vehicle Perspective

Measuring the efficiency and emissions of the fuel/energy source Well-to-Wheel

From “Well-to-Wheel” to LCA

kg CO 2 /kg LCA Example: CO 2 from Materials Production

LCA Example: CO 2 from Vehicle Production

More about California Conditions

Regulations and fiscal policies can make a difference

More about Santa Cruz Conditions

Santa Cruz Daily Travel Patterns

Master Transportation Study

More about PRT

Freeway at Capacity

Vehicles Removed

PRT Passengers

PRT System

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

More History

Lest we forget … They did bring coals to Newcastle.

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President

The Horseless Carriage

From GridLock to Gas Lines

More about BioFuels

The BioFuel Myths and Facts not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren th President If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Reality or Public Relations? For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. Richard Feynman, Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident Appendix F ﾐ Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle, June 6, 1986

US Agriculture: Crop Areas

US Agriculture: Crop Energy Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9quads)

More about TeraWatts

Solar Industry Response? Goals 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠ 200 gW by 2030 = 10% How to get there? Federal government procurement $100 m/year R&D investment $250 m/year by 2010 “Enact, modify, establish, boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…” Inadequate InconsistentInconsistent

Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge) 14.5 Terawatts 220 M BOE/day Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day The Basis of Prosperity 20 st Century = Oil 21 st Century = [Renewables]

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! “ Think TeraWatts ”

white Renewable Nations