California Energy Efficiency Retrofit Market Size Estimates, Alongside Solar and Demand Response Options Reference material for October 12, 2012 Governor’s Office EE “Big Think” Forum

Energy Efficiency Expected total hardware investment : –$8-25 BILLION, varying widely across measures and situations –potential up to $70-80 Bil. with effective delivery solutions (see last slide for calculations and assumptions.) –Primary electric technologies targeted: Lighting Cooling “Plug Loads” & other process Commercial refrigeration Ancillary business services? Ties to: –green buildings and carbon footprint, –benchmarking & building ratings, –diagnostics and energy management systems, –metrics for occupant health & productivity. For More information: – –CPUC’s lead EE management contacts: Simon Baker (programs), Pete Skala (analysis),

Integration of Demand Response, Advanced Metering Technology and “Smart Grid” IOU Goal: –Previous goal was 2700 MW peak reduction, ~ 5 large power plants. –Now market-based with DR at “top of resource loading order” with EE. IOU investment: –Electric hardware roll-out concluding; –SoCalGas $1 Bil AMI through –Results: 12 million electric meters, 10 million gas meters, distribution automation grid operations information Ancillary business services? $ TBD. Up to market & customer choice to determine: E nd-user technology & software applications for Home Area Networks and energy management. E.g.: –In-home displays (using real time data) –Programmable control functions / smart appliances –Data analytics, energy education –Energy management services –Storage technologies for load shifting For more information from CPUC’s lead management staff: Smart Grid: Liza Malashenko, Demand Response: Bruce Kaneshiro,

Distributed Solar – California Solar Initiative IOU Goal: 1950 MW, ~ 4 large power plants –Statewide 3000 MW goal (including public utilities and CEC’s New Solar Homes Partnership) IOU CSI program spending expected : $2.3 BILLION Expected total hardware investment: > $12 BILLION For more information: – –CPUC’s lead management: Melicia Charles, California Energy Commission has New Solar Homes Partnership –Goal of 400 MW of solar PV installed on new homes Ancillary business services? –Solar production metering & reporting: $13 million/year –Solar leasing and power purchase agreement finance transactions (now over 50% of residential market)

Other Clean Distributed Generation IOU “Self Generation Incentive Program” (SGIP) spending : $250 million Expected hardware investment : $900 million for 150 MW; more if market reaches grid parity Ancillary business services? –Fuel –Metering –Maintenance services For more information: – –CPUC’s lead management: Melicia Charles,

From Harcourt Brown & Carey Study, Appendix B: California Building Energy Consumption and Cost Estimates (2011)