Migration Theories and their Application George Groenewold, NiDi A. Main Theories on International Migration - Initiation viz.. perpetuation - Macro/micro level factors B. Theory-based empirical research - NIDI/EUROSTAT study in selected African and European countries UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005

A. Main Theories on International Migration A1. Theories on the initiation of Migration 1. Neoclassical economic theory (Lewis,1954; Todaro 1976) Focus on macro level factors only: geographical differences in age,employment and capital investment opportunities cause migration. Push and pull factors: i.e. factors in place of origin (e.g. poverty, unemployment) push people out of that place to places with attractive features, e.g. high living standard or job opportunities. Only individual decides whether or not to emigrate: focus on maximization of income and skills development. Cost of migration: only perceived financial and psychological costs determine whether emigration takes place or not. 2. New Economics of Migration Theory (NELM) (Stark, 1981) Expansion of macro level factors: i.e. volatility/failures of local (agricultural) markets. Lack of livelihood risk insurance and access to credit. Remittances of emigrants as risk insurance for non-migrating household members. Emigration of individual is result of household decision-making. Emigration contributes to diversification of income sources and difference in income risk profiles. Remittances steady source of income.

3. Dual labor market theory (Piore, 1979) Macro level factors only: main cause of emigration is structural labor needs of modern economies in destination areas (city, foreign country). Focus on pull- factors in destination areas: i.e structural shortage of labor at bottom-end occupational hierarchy/low status/low income jobs. Wage-level differences reflect social stratification, objective of people is upward mobility away from bottom-end jobs, to be filled by immigrants. Neglect individual and household level motives and decision making 4. World Systems Theory (Wallerstein, 1974, Massey, 1989) Macro level factors only: main cause of emigration is Economic and Political Globalization. Globalization brings about social change and alters traditional employer/labor relations and introduces modern means of production (mechanization) pushing unskilled laborers out of jobs. Neglect micro-level individual and household decision making, focus on macro- economic global processes, e.g. market penetration of firms from rich countries into poor countries affecting local norms, values, desires, aspirations leading to increased emigration intentions.

A2. Theories on the perpetuation of migration factors that initiate migration can be different from those that perpetuate migration 5. Social Network theory (Hugo, 1981; Massey 1990) Focus on micro level factors: links between migrants and their friends/family back-home initiate new migration movements. Such social networks lower risks/costs of newcomers and lead to expansion of such networks in places origin and destination and to more potential migration flows. Dynamic perspective: decision-making environment changes over time, lowering thresholds for subsequent migrants. Attention for individual/household-level decision making process, and for size, composition, quality characteristics of social networks. 6. Institutional Theory Focus on macro-level processes: perpetuation is result of effect of informal and illegal migration circuits and organisations dealing with (undocumented) migrants. E.g. exploitation by one organization (migrant smuggling) is business for other organizations (Charitas). Neglect individual and household level decision making.

7. Cumulative Causation Theory (Myrdal, 1957) Focus on macro-level socioeconomic processes; each act of migration results in alteration of the social context in which subsequent migration decisions are taken, making new movements more likely. Six main socioeconomic factors in origin areas are affected leading to new migration flows: distribution of income and land, regional distribution of human capital, organization of agriculture, culture of migration, and the social meaning of work and particular jobs. Little attention for the individual or household level decisionmaking process. 8. Migration System Theory (Kritz and Zlotnik, 1992) Focus on both macro and micro level factors: attempt to integrate some of the previous macro and micro level theories. Key issue is identification and examination of stable migration flows between places of origin and destinations to explain initiation and perpetuation of migration. An ‘International migration system’ consist of a particular set of core receiving regions in countries of destination and a set of core sending regions in countries of origin. Task is to identify, examine and relate migration processes in sending and receiving areas. Takes account of individual and household level decision making processes.

B. Theory-based empirical research NIDI/EUROSTAT study on determinants and consequences of international migration in selected African and European Countries

Background of the study Increasing international migration flows in magnitude and complexity Growing attention at the policy level for causes and consequences of international migration in countries of origin and destination To improve the understanding of the direct and indirect causes and mechanisms of international migration to the European Union, from an internationally comparative perspective Research Objective

Research design Theoretical framework: - Migration System Theory (Kritz and Zlotnik, 1992) - Social Network Theory (Hugo, 1981) - Cumulative Causation Theory (Myrdal, 1957) Theoretical perspective is guide to: a. From what or whom to collect data b. Definition of key concepts c. Coverage and representativity of data d. What data to collect e. Which analyses to carry out

a. From what or whom to collect data Different levels of spatial aggregation and different time periods: - Country, province, town/community (context) - Household and individuals (socio-economic, demographic and migration-related behavioural characteristics) - Ideally, longitudinal data (life-course perspective), but too costly. Therefore, single-round cross-sectional surveys with retrospective questions in countries belonging to same migration system. Ideally, collect/analyse data on appropriate comparison groups: - Households in origin countries that have not migrated - Households in destination countries that migrated as entire households and come from the same origin country - Individual migrants in a destination country that come from the same origin country - Households remaining in the origin country from which someone emigrated to that destination country

b. Definition of key concepts Standardization of definitions to facilitate comparative analysis, such as: Household Persons living together with communal arrangements on subsistence and other necessities of life plus those who are presently residing elsewhere but whose principal commitments and obligations are to that household with expectation of return or join Migration A move from one place in order to go and live in another place for a continuous period of at least one year Recent migrant household A household with at least one member who left within the past ten years and either returned after a period of at least one year, or is currently living abroad and left at least three months ago.The household may be classified as current or return or a combination of the two.

c. Coverage, scope and depth Costs limit to coverage, scope, depth Migration system consisting of countries in North and West Africa, South-East Mediterranean and EU countries Origin/receiving countries: - Specific regions within countries - Migrants to all destinations and non-migrants (origin countries) - Two immigrant groups from origin countries (receiving countries) - Though no qualitative research

EM/MD EM/LD RM/LDRM/MD Aksaray

Larache RM/MD EM/MD RM/MD RM/LD EM/LD

RM/MD RM/LD

RM/MD EM/LD EM/MD

d. What data to collect Community, region and nation -socioeconomic and demographic context data Household (e.g. economic head of household) - Household roster (selected information on ALL household members) - Information about living conditions and housing characteristics - Current and past economic conditions of the household - Remittances Individual (i.e. eligible household member) - Social, demographic and social interaction and integration - Economic activity, work status - Migration history (!) - Household composition in country of origin - Economic situation before the last migration - Motives for move(s) abroad - Information about the last/current destination - Migration networks and assistance - Experiences at destination and iIntentions for (future) emigration

e. Which analyses to carry out Comparative studies on determinants and consequences of international migration In-depth country studies Multi-level analysis (macro/micro level effects on migration) Collaborative research (policy makers and researchers) Differentials non-migrant/migrant households in sending and receiving countries Specific thematic studies of interest to policy makers and community of migration researchers, such as: - Determinants of remittances and effect on emigration intentions - Design of representative samples for surveys covering international migrants

END