Book Industry TRENDS 2007 BookExpo America 2007 Working to create a more informed, empowered, and efficient book industry supply chain.

Agenda Introduction Methodology and Sources of Data Key Highlights and Findings Questions and Answers

Introduction Michael Healy, Executive Director Book Industry Study Group, Inc.

About BISG Industrys leading trade association for policy, standards and research. Develops and maintains standards that enable effective communication among all segments of the industry supply chain. Conducts research and gathers data on issues affecting the book industry as a whole.

BISG Mission Working to create a more informed, empowered, and efficient book industry supply chain.

How We Accomplish Our Mission Provide a forum for the book industry Policy development Best working practices Consensus on industry issues Develop standards for effective industry supply chain communications Conduct research on issues affecting the book industry

Research & Publications

Book Industry TRENDS 2007 The only complete view of todays book-publishing industry More than 250 pages of tables, charts, and analysis An up-to-date report that covers the growing segment of small to mid-size publishers

Methodology and Sources of Data Jeff Hayes, Vice President & General Manager, InfoTrends Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research Robert Wharton, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research

Tracking Small Publishers Most book publishing revenue data is on large publishers Significant publishing activity by smaller entities Self-publishersTrade Associations Small businessesCorporations Specialty publishersNon-profit organizations Need new primary research to quantify Concerns about generating reliable data

The Long Tail of Book Publishers Annual book publishing revenue Rank Order Source: BISG Under the Radar Research

The Long Tail … Annual book publishing revenue Rank Order Source: BISG Under the Radar Research

The Long Tail … Annual book publishing revenue Rank Order Source: BISG Under the Radar Research

Profile of Small Publishers (<$50M) Type of Publisher N = % Educational institution Corporation Association Retailer Distributor Printer Government Category of Books Published Percentage of Publishers

Small Publisher Key Research Findings 53% earn revenue from non-book activities (e.g. speaking, seminars, consulting, editing, distribution, education) Nearly 90% use Internet for marketing and/or sales Growing portion of revenue from paperback (73.7% vs. 71.6%) Lower average selling prices in 2006 vs ($11.21 vs. $13.46) Getting retailers to carry books and production costs are top concerns Used books, competition, and returns are not of high concern

Small Publisher Market Projections 193,802 records of US entities with an ISBN Not in business 31.6% In business 68.4% 132,526 61,276 Not active 33.2% Active Publishers 66.8% 88,528 43,999 Median Revenue ($K) $3.6 $65 $177 $637 $2,000 NA X 67,907 6,434 7,442 1,860 4, Under $50K 76.7% $50K to $99K 7.3% $100K to $499K 8.4% $500K to $999K 2.1% $1M to $49.9M 5.3% $50M+ 0.3% Annual Revenue Projected Revenue ($M) $418 $1,321 $1,186 $9,302 NA = $246 $12,474 Total

Year Over Year Comparisons Statistical variance is an issue Most increase from $1M to $49M publishers

Analyzed survey data by key segments Format Category Channel Foreign vs. domestic Additional analysis to incorporate into TRENDS 2007 Eliminate double counting Apportion to TRENDS segments Integrating Small Publisher Projections

Additional Data Sources U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau International Trade Administration Monthly Retail and Book Store Data The Statistical Abstract of the U.S. U.S. Department of Education

Additional Data Sources Congressional Budget Office Annual Reports & 10-Ks Wall Street Reports Industry Reporting Services Major Publications Trade Associations R.R. Bowker

Additional Data Sources Financial Reporting Services Data from NBER, Federal Reserve, etc. Discussions with Industry Experts Discussions with Book Publishers Discussions with Academic Researchers

ARIMA Models A uto R egressive I ntegrated M oving A verages Time series forecasting tool Uses lags and shifts in historical data to uncover patterns and predict the future

Key Highlights and Findings Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research

Summary Data

Adult Trade For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

Juvenile Trade For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

Mass Market Paperback For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

Religious For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

Professional Publishing For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

College Textbooks For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

Elhi For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

University Press For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

Standardized Tests For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit to purchase a copy of the publication.

Thank you Questions? For more information: Book Industry Study Group, Inc. (646)