Valentino Piana Ankara, 19th November 2009 Innovative Schemes for Financing Adaptation and Enhancing Technology Transfer

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Contents 1. A qualitative evaluation of the costs of climate change and adaptation 2. The adaptation cost curve (by strategy type) - qualitative estimates 3. Conventional and innovative sources for adaptation funds 4. Enhancing technology transfer: the debate 5. Conclusions

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Systemic relevance Awareness Dominance Climate change damage Adaptation expenditures 1. A qualitative evaluation of the costs of climate change and adaptation

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 2. The adaptation cost curve (by strategy type) - qualitative estimates

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting International funds (from COP15 new facilities, from WB,…) Local mobilization Insurance schemes 4 4 “Polluters pay” + “Profit tax from CC gains” 5 Domestic tax ---> PRODINT 3. Conventional and innovative sources for adaptation funds

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting International funds (from COP15 new facilities, from WB,…) 1 “Adaptation Framework / Programme International Insurance Facility / mechanism Compensation and rehabilitation component Adaptation Commitee / Subsidiary Body National Adaptation Plans Regional centres for adaptation” (AWG-LCA Non-paper n. 41, 5/11/2009) 3. Conventional and innovative sources for adaptation funds

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Who pays How and who manage the fund What to fund How much Large-enough international funds need to be collected from many countries, from both public and private sources, credibly managed and spent on uncontroversial actions International funds (from COP15 new facilities, from WB,…) 1 3. Conventional and innovative sources for adaptation funds

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Distribution of local adaptation plans Legenda: EE1 = lack of adaptation plan in areas at risk: the"blue" agents pay; EE2 = good and cost-effective adaptation plan: the "red" agents receive Between EE1 and EE2: Neutral area of unsufficient local plans to be financed after improvements 2 Domestic tax ---> Local mobilization + PRODINT 3 3. Conventional and innovative sources for adaptation funds

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Distribution of consensus for PRODINT Legenda: EE1 = the"blue" agents are against (but guilty); EE2 = the "red" agents receive (and are in favour) Between EE1 and EE2 = they will receive next time (so they are in favour) National and international funds can improve these balances, reaching an even wider majority of consensus 2 Domestic tax ---> Local mobilization + PRODINT 3 3. Conventional and innovative sources for adaptation funds

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Public-driven, private-delivered instrument to quantify risk in specific areas and spread it in uncorrelated conditions It is possible a mandate to cover areas at risk It should be thoroughly explored However, it remains possible that private assurances will ask too much and re-assurance business will be afraid of systemic risk 4 Insurance schemes 4 3. Conventional and innovative sources for adaptation funds

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Damage-based request for compensation Strong linkage to mitigation If any business or industry gains from the change in climate (e.g. shipments through the Arctic Sea), their profits should be taxed away to fund adaptation International agreements needed 4 “Polluters pay” + “Profit tax from CC gains” 5 3. Conventional and innovative sources for adaptation funds

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting International institutions from COP15 “Executive Body on Technology Technology Incentive for Development and Transfer Technology Capacity Building Program Technology Mechanism/ National policies Regional Hubs for Technology Tranfer, Sectoral Innovation Centers, Executive Coordinating Council Climate Technology Centre Climate Technology Network/ Technology Action Framework/ A financing and technology mechanism International Technology Action Plan National Technology Action Plan Global Technology Pool for Climate Change Global Technology IPR Pool for Climate Change Technology Development and Transfer Facility/service Climate Technology Hugs and Corps Technology Innovation Centres” (AWG-LCA Non-paper n.47, 6/11/2009) 4. Enhancing technology transfer: the debate

Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Conclusions Financing adaptation to climate change will exacerbate fiscal problems and international difficulties in solidarity. But properly managed and channeled, the overall architecture of COP15 and beyond can be a crucial leverage for sustainable development at large. Technology is not the only solution: behavioural, organisational and infrastructural components are essential. However, trade-offs between costs and effectiveness can be improved by proper and appropriate technology change. Fast developing countries with large absorption capacity should be at the forefront of international dialogue.

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