High Productivity Computing: Predictions for the New HPC Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing Addison Snell, VP/GM, October 2007

Tabor Communications Overview 20 years of leadership in HPC publishing HPCwire and GRIDtoday are globally recognized Also known for event coverage, book publishing, annual People To Watch list, Editors Choice and Readers Choice Awards, HPC Classifieds 20 years of leadership in HPC publishing HPCwire and GRIDtoday are globally recognized Also known for event coverage, book publishing, annual People To Watch list, Editors Choice and Readers Choice Awards, HPC Classifieds In a typical month … 2 million unique visitors to web sites 48,000 article downloads Readers in 41 countries In a typical month … 2 million unique visitors to web sites 48,000 article downloads Readers in 41 countries

Recent News for Tabor Communications Debra Goldfarb named President, CEO Formation of two new operating companies: –Tabor Marketing Services Mike Bernhardt, VP/GM Provides strategic marketing services for HPC –Tabor Research Addison Snell, VP/GM Emphasis on actionable market intelligence Diane Lieberman, new Publisher for HPCwire Debra Goldfarb named President, CEO Formation of two new operating companies: –Tabor Marketing Services Mike Bernhardt, VP/GM Provides strategic marketing services for HPC –Tabor Research Addison Snell, VP/GM Emphasis on actionable market intelligence Diane Lieberman, new Publisher for HPCwire

High Productivity Computing Market revolutions require a fresh look at HPC Expanding vendor contexts –More differentiation exists outside the server –2nd tier vendors play an important role –HPC includes data management, system management, compilers, tools, middleware, … Expanding user contexts –HPC is more accessible; new applications –Examples: Consumer manufacturing, online gaming, super-scalable business computing Market revolutions require a fresh look at HPC Expanding vendor contexts –More differentiation exists outside the server –2nd tier vendors play an important role –HPC includes data management, system management, compilers, tools, middleware, … Expanding user contexts –HPC is more accessible; new applications –Examples: Consumer manufacturing, online gaming, super-scalable business computing

Giving the HPC Community a Voice Users and vendors register for premium content from Tabor Research web site Ongoing polling through web, , phone surveys Tabor Research will recognize and reward those who consistently provide value by responding Users and vendors register for premium content from Tabor Research web site Ongoing polling through web, , phone surveys Tabor Research will recognize and reward those who consistently provide value by responding Tabor Research is giving the HPC community a cohesive voice Enabling our readers to become active participants in the future of HPC Tabor Research is giving the HPC community a cohesive voice Enabling our readers to become active participants in the future of HPC

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Quick Question: How Important Is Low Power Consumption? Absolute requirement Not an absolute requirement but worth paying a premium for Not worth paying a premium but worth considering when price/performance is equal Minor consideration at best Not a factor Absolute requirement Not an absolute requirement but worth paying a premium for Not worth paying a premium but worth considering when price/performance is equal Minor consideration at best Not a factor 34% 23% 24% 6% 13% n = 180

Users from all sectors, verticals, and budget sizes invited to participate in Advisory Council Users participate by regularly answering surveys (about three to four per quarter) Two main surveys: HPC budget map, HPC census In return, Council members receive: –Access to Tabor Research data and reports –Analyst inquiry time –Invitations to exclusive events Users from all sectors, verticals, and budget sizes invited to participate in Advisory Council Users participate by regularly answering surveys (about three to four per quarter) Two main surveys: HPC budget map, HPC census In return, Council members receive: –Access to Tabor Research data and reports –Analyst inquiry time –Invitations to exclusive events

Grid Computing and HPC Neither is a subset of the other: There are HPC grids, but not all grids are HPC, and not all HPC is grid Within HPC, the emphasis of grid computing is typically efficient utilization of resources –Compute resources –Data resources –Visualization resources There is a very pertinent link to ultra-scale business computing Neither is a subset of the other: There are HPC grids, but not all grids are HPC, and not all HPC is grid Within HPC, the emphasis of grid computing is typically efficient utilization of resources –Compute resources –Data resources –Visualization resources There is a very pertinent link to ultra-scale business computing

Dynamics Driving the New HPC Growth market, but … A series of evolutions (SMP to cluster, Vectors to RISC to x86, HPC-specific to leveraged) has steadily increased the gap between performance and productivity Industrial users in particular are looking for ROI in HPC Multi-core drives another wedge into this gap Growth market, but … A series of evolutions (SMP to cluster, Vectors to RISC to x86, HPC-specific to leveraged) has steadily increased the gap between performance and productivity Industrial users in particular are looking for ROI in HPC Multi-core drives another wedge into this gap

Multi-Core Is Coming This isnt a prediction – it is a market transition Multi-core is not a benefit in itself for HPC, although many users have codes that will use up to four cores productively Need to convey the benefits of additional cores in terms of productivity, not performance This isnt a prediction – it is a market transition Multi-core is not a benefit in itself for HPC, although many users have codes that will use up to four cores productively Need to convey the benefits of additional cores in terms of productivity, not performance Here ^

Impact of Multi-Core #1 New layer of complexity in programming –Parallelism at the socket level –Need new solutions for scheduler, workload manager, … Current MPI model (and other tools) will not provide efficient use of additional cores New layer of complexity in programming –Parallelism at the socket level –Need new solutions for scheduler, workload manager, … Current MPI model (and other tools) will not provide efficient use of additional cores Companies providing software or middleware pieces that drive efficiency may be acquired.

Impact of Multi-Core #2 Users will seek ways to alleviate the memory burden on the core For some compute-intensive applications accelerators will provide a needed boost Challenge for accelerators: Programming Users will seek ways to alleviate the memory burden on the core For some compute-intensive applications accelerators will provide a needed boost Challenge for accelerators: Programming GPGPUs will emerge as a dominant accelerator model for the lower end of the market

Impact of Multi-Core #3 Definition of a supercomputer: A tool for turning a compute-bound problem into an I/O-bound problem Meanwhile, data explosion continues Confusing alphabet soup of solutions (RAID, XVM, HSM, any letter or two followed by FS) Definition of a supercomputer: A tool for turning a compute-bound problem into an I/O-bound problem Meanwhile, data explosion continues Confusing alphabet soup of solutions (RAID, XVM, HSM, any letter or two followed by FS) Data management solutions become better understood, more highly valued

Impact of Multi-Core #4 All PC programmers are now addressing the challenge of programming for multi-core Tools migrate from broad markets to HPC Influence with ISVs is important Meanwhile, Linux is fragmenting All PC programmers are now addressing the challenge of programming for multi-core Tools migrate from broad markets to HPC Influence with ISVs is important Meanwhile, Linux is fragmenting Get ready, Linux fans: Microsoft makes a move in HPC Get ready, Linux fans: Microsoft makes a move in HPC

The New HPC In production markets, efficiency and productivity matter HPC continues to grow among both incumbent and new users Non-traditional application areas represent the new face of HPC In production markets, efficiency and productivity matter HPC continues to grow among both incumbent and new users Non-traditional application areas represent the new face of HPC Changes in the industry require a fresh, demand-side look at actionable market intelligence

Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing

Introducing Tabor Research Covering the complete High Productivity Computing market space Combining supply-side (vendor) and demand-side (user) data for comprehensive market view Activating readers of HPCwire and GRIDtoday to enable the voice of the HPC user Covering the complete High Productivity Computing market space Combining supply-side (vendor) and demand-side (user) data for comprehensive market view Activating readers of HPCwire and GRIDtoday to enable the voice of the HPC user Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing

Tabor Research Products InterSect360 market advisory service –Subscription-based service with quarterly reports –User and vendor data in three modules: Buyer Views, Supplier Views, Technology Views Comprehensive Research Studies –Deep dive research in hot-topic areas –Provide ROI for market research investment Client-specific services: Strategic consulting, technology assessments, perception audits, white papers, TAM analysis, custom market intelligence InterSect360 market advisory service –Subscription-based service with quarterly reports –User and vendor data in three modules: Buyer Views, Supplier Views, Technology Views Comprehensive Research Studies –Deep dive research in hot-topic areas –Provide ROI for market research investment Client-specific services: Strategic consulting, technology assessments, perception audits, white papers, TAM analysis, custom market intelligence

InterSect360 Market Advisory Service Buyer Views Budgets, spending map Segmentation by class of user, vertical market Trend forecasting and analysis Buyer Views Budgets, spending map Segmentation by class of user, vertical market Trend forecasting and analysis Technology Views Forecasts technology trends using user and vendor data Examples: Multi-core, InfiniBand, Windows adoption Technology Views Forecasts technology trends using user and vendor data Examples: Multi-core, InfiniBand, Windows adoption Supplier Views Revenue, units, ASP Segmentation by system class, vertical, geo Market sizing, shares, and forecasts Supplier Views Revenue, units, ASP Segmentation by system class, vertical, geo Market sizing, shares, and forecasts

InterSect360 – Buyer Views Data sources: End-user surveys, case studies, interviews, discussions Segmentations: Site class, vertical industry, others Report types: Spending profiles, TAM estimates, installed system profiles Forecasts and trends: Budget distribution forecast, TAM forecast, others Data sources: End-user surveys, case studies, interviews, discussions Segmentations: Site class, vertical industry, others Report types: Spending profiles, TAM estimates, installed system profiles Forecasts and trends: Budget distribution forecast, TAM forecast, others

InterSect360 – Technology Views Data sources: Technology provider surveys, product vendor surveys, product documentation Segmentations: System architecture, processor type, processor architecture, interconnect type, node types, others Report tables: Processor volume, interconnect volume, market sizing and shares by technology segments, others Forecasts: Processor type shares, interconnect shares, system architecture directions, others Data sources: Technology provider surveys, product vendor surveys, product documentation Segmentations: System architecture, processor type, processor architecture, interconnect type, node types, others Report tables: Processor volume, interconnect volume, market sizing and shares by technology segments, others Forecasts: Processor type shares, interconnect shares, system architecture directions, others

InterSect360 – Supplier Views Data sources: Vendor surveys, financial information, discussions with buyers and competitors Segmentations: System class, vertical, geography, scaling class, others Report tables: Market sizing by revenue, shipments, ASP and shares by product segments and vendor Forecasts: Market sizing by revenue, shipments, and ASP Data sources: Vendor surveys, financial information, discussions with buyers and competitors Segmentations: System class, vertical, geography, scaling class, others Report tables: Market sizing by revenue, shipments, ASP and shares by product segments and vendor Forecasts: Market sizing by revenue, shipments, and ASP

Tabor Research Leadership Debra Goldfarb, President and CEO –20-year industry advisor, previously worked at IBM; led HPC team at IDC –Emphasizing High Productivity Computing Addison Snell, VP/GM –10 years HPC experience at SGI, IDC –Vision: Actionable market research in HPC Dr. Christopher Willard, Sr. Research Consultant –25 years as HPC market intelligence specialist –Leads InterSect360 market advisory service Debra Goldfarb, President and CEO –20-year industry advisor, previously worked at IBM; led HPC team at IDC –Emphasizing High Productivity Computing Addison Snell, VP/GM –10 years HPC experience at SGI, IDC –Vision: Actionable market research in HPC Dr. Christopher Willard, Sr. Research Consultant –25 years as HPC market intelligence specialist –Leads InterSect360 market advisory service