CEOS WGISS May, 2009 Toulouse, France Glenn Rutledge National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center Asheville, NC NOAA's National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) Access and Archives for Multi-Model Ensembles and Climate Models

Outline 1.Developing advanced archive and access capabilities for the next generation AOGCM models: - NOMADS and NOMADS-Next. 2.The NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) -An OSSE capability for Climate Models 3.THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Experiment (TIGGE) -Global Interactive Processing System (GIFS) -Multi-Model ensemble access prototype

NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System provide distributed access to models and associated data; and promote model evaluation. foster research within the geo- science communities (ocean, weather, and climate) to study multiple earth systems using collections of distributed data. develop institutional partnerships through open source and proprietary technologies, standards, and tools. NOMADS Goals

High Availability Servers operational in NOAAs National Weather Service: - Boulder, CO - Ft. Worth, TX - Silver Spring, MD Ocean-NOMADS at the National Ocean Data Center: - Charleston, SC. nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov New NOMADS Services NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

Direct Client Access NCEP Dual Ingest & QC Portals GDS and TDS Live Access Server GrADS, Ferret, MatLab, IDL, IDV, Web browsers or any OPeNDAP enabled client Project ACCESS: NASA, GMU, GMU & OPeNDAP Project GALEON Unidata NOMADS Web-Plotter, http, ftp & binary subsetting GIS access (WCS, W*S) NCDC HDSS Archive http / ftp access NOAA-wide LAS sister-servers DOEs Earth System Grid Collaboration Focus NCDC Architecture

NOMADS-Next under Development

NWP Model Global Forecast System (GFS), 1 and ½ degree NCEP Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) w/ restart files North American Mesoscale (NAM, formally Eta) 1 and 3 hourly Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 13km and 20km NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) 30 years 32km NCEP/NCAR R1/R2 Reanalysis (Climate Data Assimilation System -CDAS) NCEP Regional Special Model (RSM) NCEP Global Ensembles and SREF NCEP Ocean models (Ocean-NOMADS) NCEP Sea Ice Models NWS Analysis of Record Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA downscaled RUC to 5km) In situ NCDC Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) surface temperature and precipitation anomalies NCDC Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) upper air reference quality data set (formally CARDS) NCDC Smith-Reynolds Extended Reconstructed and O/I Sea Surface Temperatures (ERSST) and climatologies ) NOAA Satellite No longer serve sat and radar data to focus on Models. Climate Models / Coupled AOGCM GFDL CM2.0 and CM2.1 Climate Experiments Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) NOMADS Data

Explaining Climate to Improve Prediction (ECIP): 1)Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project (Saha et al.) Global 1 degree – Reanalysis. ~230TB (Grib2) 2) Climate of the 20 th Century Project (Compo, et al.,) – 1850 to present. ~120TB (Grib1) 3) Climate Prediction Center Reanalysis CPCR – 1944 to present. ~235TB (FY11) NOAA Reanalysis Expected availability Winter 2010!

NOAA Reanalysis Community Web Page Informational User Survey Feedback Registration

GFDL, (NCAR/DOE/NASA) – CM.x, Requirements tdb – Models to support impacts user community Unified Synthesis Product (USP) – Coupled downscaled (4 TB initially, 3 vars) Earth System Grid (ESG) and NOAAs ESRL – NOMADS collaboration with ESG (D. Williams) – ESMF and NOAAs ESRL (C. DeLucia) Climate Models Coming Soon!

IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5, 2010/11) – Multi-model approach via ESG in process THORPEX Interactive Grand Global – TIGGE International distributed Archive – GIFS Multi Center requirements Other TBD Experiments (e.g., YOTC) Datasets On the Horizon

The conceptual architecture is based on three (3) main components; the Portal, the Catalog Node, and the Data Repository. 1)The Climate Model Portal is the users real-time interface to the system, manage requests, download data, receive user input and catalog browsing. 2)the Catalog Node is the heart of the system and concentrates on connecting partners, metadata, search and discovery and secure peer-to-peer connectivity. 3)the Data Repository will be based on advanced real-time access components, and will also use the Data Center IT infrastructure for long term storage and access NCDCNCEPGFDL …* Archives…Data Sources…. Collaborators: DOE (ESG), NASA, EPA, UCAR/NCAR, SDSC, RENCI & others NOAA Climate Services Portal National Climate Model Portal NCMP

National Climate Model Portal = NCMP Components NCMP

A NOMADS OSSE Capability Steps for the OSSE Capability: 1) Generate a "nature" atmosphere or ocean 2) Compute synthetic observations 3) Assimilate the synthetic observations 4) Assess the impact on the resulting analysis forecast, prediction or assessment. UW, Madison The NCDC NOMADS data sets, which include conventional and non-conventional observations, are archived and accessible through the NOMADS servers. for NWP OSSE develop and integrate a massive on-line data base with users so there is controlled access to data set selection, location, spatial extent, Variable, quality and time period. Climate OSSE needs a new process NOMADS NCMP

Climate OSSE Climate OSSEs may not use the same NWP processes (decades of files for integration) New approaches need to be developed or leveraged. (OLRs etc.) Climate OSSEs can establish appropriate confidence in climate change scenarios. Perturbed Physics Ensembles (B. Wielicki, et al.,) and a climateprediction.net approach NCMP

THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Experiment (TIGGE) Objectives Production of internationally coordinated advance warnings and forecasts for high impact weather events… – to mitigate loss of life and property, – to contribute to the welfare of all World Meteorological Organization (WMO) nations, with a particular emphasis on least developed and developing countries. Toth, Z., J. Desmarais, G. Brunet, Houtekamer, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, R. Hogue, R. Verret, L. Wilson, B. Cui, G. Pellerin, B. Gordon, E. O'Lenic, D. Unger, 2005: The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). Proceedings of the 1 st THORPEX International Science Symposium, December 2004, Montreal, Canada. Available at toth_naefs_thorpex_montreal.pdfhttp://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/papers/ toth_naefs_thorpex_montreal.pdf

TIGGE Status Develop a unified ensemble operational concept (CONOPS) to allow reliable production and international exchange of ensemble products: – Identify unified ensemble operations requirements standard output fields in standard format and exchange parameters ensemble configuration including output intervals and forecast length, membership, approximate spatial resolution GEO Task co-lead & participant: Rutledge/Toth

Script URL is: ensc0_00z_1x1.ascii?pratesfc[3:3][125:125][277:277] 20 model runs, 64 fcst projections (6hrs) 1280 queries ONE request in ~10 seconds Multi-Model Ensemble Access Probability Density Functions (PDFs) OPeNDAP constraint expression

Demonstration web page showing the URL queries of the ensembles OPeNDAP GDS query constrained by time and location of Paris airport for precipation for each ensemble component.

We loop the previous queries over all forecast times to 384-hrs and graph the result for the probabilities of precipitation for Paris out 16 days. Combinations of probabilities (temp / precip) can derive products: frost, freezing rain etc., NOMADSNOMADS Ensemble Probabilities on the fly (demo)

Thank you ! Historical Real-Time:

Backup

NWPEnsemblesReanalysisClimateProgrammaticServers NAMLo-ResNARRCM2.XSRRSLAS GFSHi-ResGlobal R1CFSNDFDGDS RUC Probability Tool Global R2SSTRTMATDS LAS: Server side analysis, coordinate transformation, and user interface engines GDS: Server side analysis and format conversions TDS: file aggregations, I/O-SP, http, wget, OGC: WCS, WMS; GeoPortal Tooolkit NetCDF: utilities and subsetting (in TDS) NOMADS Wgrib: direct file level grib subsetting, / grib1-grib2 conversions / SRRS: NOMADS Service Records Retention System the only legally mandated dataset at NCDC NDFD: National Digital Forecast Database- NOMADS archive sub-setting RTMA: Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis. OPeNDAP and http services via all 3 servers. Very popular. Most frequently used data & capabilities NOMADS Capabilities

Operational Forecasting- Ensemble Prediction Access: flow-dependant prediction of weather and climate- nowcasting, medium range and seasonal. Atmospheric and Oceanic Research- Scalar and Vector processing and Workstation models Model output statistics; reanalysis; data assimilation techniques Global Climate Change and Advanced Analysis- Clouds, initial conditions, true coupled simulations. Long term climate monitoring: in-situ analysis, trends, data homogeneity, extremes, downscaling, reducing uncertainty... On-demand Data Mining and Product Generation-convective process Short and Long Term Goals

NCMP Key Development Strategies Maintain and minimize impact on legacy systems Develop Services and Component based Architecture (SCBA) using a top-down, bottom-up iterative software development process Evolutionary development through pilot projects Coordinate activities through Communities of Interest organized by structural Data Types – Grids, time-series, moving-sensor multi-dimensional, profiles, trajectories, geospatial framework, point data and metadata DOE Earth System Grid: initial collaborator.

Global Data Assimilation System, Spectral Forecast Model and the Spectral Statistical Interpolation Cycling Analysis System - NOAA-15/16 AMSU-A/B TOVS 1B Radiances (IEEE) - Analysis Bias Corrected Information / Obs Toss List - SFC U/A, ACRS, Aircft (BUFR) - 6HR fcst guess from previous run (BUFR) - ERSCAT Sat obs / HIRS 14/15, MSU TOVS (IEEE) - Guess prep and and fcst guess output (BUFR) - Analysis ready QCed Obs. (prepBUFR) - Profiler, TOVS, Wind Obs. (BUFR) - SFC Analysis Restart Files - SSTs (GRIB) - Radar VAD Winds (BUFR) NOMADS Data

NOMADS saves the minimum data necessary to regenerate model output products. Analysis files are in the models own coordinate system. Input files are constructed with computer and computational efficiency in mind, and sometimes not in standard coordinate systems. Programs to convert these files are available upon request: spectral to gaussian gaussian to lat/lon sigma to pressure Data Assimilation: GDAS SSI