CONFIDENTIAL This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from The Mattson Jack Group, Inc. Building Blocks (and the Devil) in Commercial Assessment and Planning Richard W. Martin, President and Chief Operating Officer The Mattson Jack Group, Inc. April 2008

Confidential 2 Introduction Multiple slides

Confidential 3 The Devils of Commercial Assessment and Planning Epidemiology Patient Behavior Treatment Protocols Regulatory Environment Competitive Set Logistics and Supply Commercialization Strategy Partner Coordination Financial Considerations Commercial Environment

Confidential 4 Epidemiology is the starting point in the pharmaceutical commercial market assessment and planning process. How many patients have the disease or condition and are eligible to be treated? Drug discovery prioritization Clinical trial planning Licensing Additional indications for in-line products Resource allocation and investment decisions Go / no-go decisions all along the way Too often, too little attention is paid to this critical element of business planning. Epidemiology is the first potential major trip up in the commercial assessment and planning process The impact of errors here are multiplied throughout the planning process

Confidential 5 Epidemiology non-oncology examples Multiple slides

Confidential 6 Changes in core disease rates can trip up the best planners. The previous examples show the effect of demographics when the rate of disease is static. What happens when the disease rate also changes? One must analyze the age-adjusted disease rate. An overall disease rate is dependent on demographic composition at the time the rate was determined. An age-adjusted rate corrects for changes in demographic composition.

Confidential 7 Epidemiology oncology examples Multiple slides

Confidential 8 Co-Morbid Considerations Why is it important to consider co-morbid diseases / conditions? To prevent double counting resulting in over- or under-estimating market size For example, many individual compounds are used to treat multiple psychiatric conditions Where should one be most careful regarding co-morbid diseases / conditions? (And, lets not forget about severity) Respiratory disease (asthma, COPD, allergic rhinitis) Multiple indications for a single product (e.g., Sanofi-Aventis rimonabant originally considered for smoking, obesity, hypertension and diabetes together) Psychiatric illnesses (depression, anxiety, others)

Confidential 9 Co-morbidity examples Multiple slides

Confidential 10 Patient Behavior PreferencesEmbarrassed Whats Normal? And so it goes

Confidential 11 Treatment Protocol Economics How Aggressive? Managed Care

Confidential 12 Commercial Environment IP Pricing and Reimbursement Me-toos and Generics

Confidential 13 Competitive Environment Whats in Development? Regional Players Parallel Importation

Confidential 14 Regulatory Environment Timeline, Cost, P(s) Acceptable TPPs Study Requirements

Confidential 15 Commercialization Strategies Partnering HQ vs. Local Planning Promotion

Confidential 16 Partner Coordination Pricing (again) Unplanned Expenses Promotional Bleed

Confidential 17 Logistics and Supply Local Incentives Importation Costs Special Payments

Confidential 18 Financial Considerations Taxation Currency Consolidation

Confidential 19 Richard W. Martin President and COO The Mattson Jack Group, Inc Westline Drive, Suite 180 St. Louis, MO Tel: Fax: Thank You!