2003 KBC Bank & Insurance Group Interim results at 30 September Ticker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters) B:KB (Datastream) ISIN code: BE
Results third Quarter Interim results at 30 Sep 2003 Highlights Outlook Performance, insurance Performance, banking
Results third Quarter Third Quarter Highlights Average quarter 2002 In m EUR + 0% - 5% - 15% Relatively good performance (up 69 %) y-o-y + 69% + 15%
Results third Quarter Third Quarter Highlights Robust performance in Belgium Further improving level of costs in banking (ytd -5%) Pressure on interest margin reversed (Q/Q: 195 -> 210 bp) Low level of loan loss ratio (ytd 22 bp) and P&C (*) claims ratio (ytd 59 bp) Satisfactory result in most CEE markets ROAC (*) banking in Czech (CR) / Slovak republics (SR): ytd 17% ROAC for banking in Hungary: ytd 19% Improved performance by insurance operations (still limited scale) … but very poor performance of banking business in Poland (high loan loss provisions : 124 m in 3Q) (*) P&C : Property and Casualty insurance (**) Return on allocated capital
Results third Quarter Interim results at 30 Sep 2003 Highlights Outlook Performance, insurance Performance, banking
Results third Quarter Banking, income development Interest income : ytd 2% organic growth (margin : 6M 1.63% 9M 1.71%) Commission income : strong growth (capital-guaranteed funds) Lower trading income due to lower FX income and MtM of equity derivatives Considerable capital gains (ytd 196 m) on ‘free’ bond portfolio One-off ‘other income’ recorded in 2Q 02 and lower dividends Excluding capital gains, stable gross operating income despite difficult climate in 1H Total income -2% - 33% - 13% +16% -1% -30% - 12% Gross income ytd 9M 03
Results third Quarter Banking, expense development Belgium : Expenditures ytd : 5% (- 60 m) Headcount reduction : target of FTE met in Oct 03 Central and Eastern Europe : Expenditures ytd: 1% (6 m) Headcount reduction : Czech Republic : 460 FTE (48% of target) Poland : new target of 1 000/1200 FTE Continuing cost control Cost/Income ratio 9M 03: 65% (65% for FY 02) 9M 03: 45 % Belgium 9M 03: 27 % CEE excl. KB Ytd expenses (m EUR)
Results third Quarter Cost control in Belgium Although Belgium is a ‘mature’ market, further improvement in performance can be expected Merger (almost) completed, full extent of cost savings in bottom-line as of 1H 04 Lower cost/income ratio ahead, thanks to: Greater use of bancassurance (acceleration in P&C and to SME segment) Reduction in product complexity in retail (possibly by up to 70%) (*) Outsourcing of transaction processing (payments) and IT (limited scale) (implementation in progress) Stronger pooling of back-office activities of Belgian group companies Various other co-sourcing scenarios being considered Screening of real-estate-related costs (*) e.g. by reducing the wide range of credit cards, travellers’ cheques, mortgage loans, savings certificates, …
Results third Quarter Banking, loan provisions Customer loan book Sept. 03 (1) Loss ratio 9M 03 (2) Belgium49.0 bn0.22% Hungary3.7 bn0.32% CR / SR5.9 bn0.45% Poland4.0 bn6.09% International 27.6 bn0.51% Total90.3 bn0.60% Intensive clean-up of loan portfolio in Poland Quarterly loan loss provisions (m EUR) Loan loss ratio 9M 03: 0.60% (0.55 for FY 02) (1) Gross loans (2) Specific provisions - annualized
Results third Quarter Retail banking in Belgium Ytd profit 145 m ( 189%), ROAC up to 10% from 3% Growth in income : ytd 6% (strong commission income and rebound in interest income) Cost reduction : ytd 5% Provisions (38 m EUR) remain low (16 bp on RWA (*) ) 2003 has seen a turnaround in Belgian retail on the back of robust commission business and cost savings Belgium 1 st home market +36% (*) Risk -weighted assets
Results third Quarter Banking in Central and Eastern Europe CR & SR : stable yoy in spite of pressure on margin, thanks to commission income and zero expense growth Hungary : income and volume growth more than set off pressure on margin Poland : difficult economic conditions and high loan loss provisions (195 m) (*) excl. minority interests, incl. 12 m provisions for KB related to 02 Satisfactory performance in Czech Republic,Slovakia and Hungary (though further improvement to be expected) Still basic restructuring work to do in Poland Central Europe 2 nd home market In m EUR (*) 9M 029M 03%ROAC 03 CR / SR %18% Hungary %19% Poland Slovenia
Results third Quarter Activities in Central and Eastern Europe Confidence in our strategy fundamentals : Satisfying year-to-date results in most markets (incl. insurance), excl. banking in Poland Within 6 months : all CEE affiliates (5 countries) operating in the EU Common shared optimism regarding rebound of economic cycle in ‘04 Refocusing : from ‘external expansion’ to ‘improvement in performance’ Adjustment of group governance model to encompass CEE affiliates. Key issues : Further increase in management and controlling capacity of KBC HQ Improved organization of transfer of know-how to CEE Strengthened central audit teams Central Europe 2 nd home market
Results third Quarter Addressing the challenges in Poland Capital base : strengthened (+ 666 m PLN (completed), KBC's stake up to 81%) Risk sensitivity : to be greatly reduced Credit risk policies redefined and credit decision authority reduced (completed) Cleaning up ‘historic’ loan book (195 m provisions ytd) Improving risk control and risk management Cost base : to be further reduced Centralizing back offices, strengthening HR and performance measurement Reducing headcount (driven by new central IT system) by 1000/1200 FTE, real estate expenses (15-20 %) and other tangible costs (5-10%) by ‘04 Disinvesting from non-strategic activities (Ukraine, Lithuania, PKB, Pension Fund,…) Market position : to be improved on the retail market (sales growth %) Thorough customer segmentation in the nationwide network Transfer of KBC product know-how (e.g., in the field of AM) Acceleration of bancassurance efforts with WARTA Insurance Central Europe 2 nd home market
Results third Quarter Asset Management division Breakdown of retail funds Equity: 11% Bonds & MM: 13% Balanced: 12% Capital- guaranteed: 48% Profit contribution : ytd 84 m ( 4%) New capital-guaranteed funds : ytd 105 new mutual/unit-linked funds AUM : ytd 5% to 84 bn from 80 bn Retail funds (42 bn) : 4% Private assets (13 bn) : 4% Institutional & group assets (28 bn): 6% Profit contribution down slightly Belgium: 85 % Central Europe: 5 % Other
Results third Quarter Corporate banking : Profit contribution: ytd 140m 10% (ROAC 9%) Cost decrease ( 7%) due to strict cost control, mainly in Belgium / Western Europe No repeat of 2002 one-off revenues Provisions for problem loans (56 bp on RWA), mainly for the electricity sector in the US Market activities : Profit contribution: ytd 117 m 51 % (ROAC 14%) Very strong performance in money and capital market products Equity trading: still weak (break-even for KBC Securities at operating level) KBC Financial Products : satisfactory result but negative MtM for equity derivatives Corporate and investment banking Profit contribution : corporate banking and market activities
Results third Quarter Interim results at 30 Sep 2003 Highlights Outlook Performance, insurance Performance, banking
Results third Quarter P&C, underwriting result Exceptionally low level Premium income Combined ratio Very sound business, in ‘03 partly driven by upward trend in rates and in general by strong risk and cost discipline Premiums ytd 15% org. growth 99% 95% 94% Excl R/I
Results third Quarter Life business, underwriting result Quarterly net premium income Very strong growth (bancassurance-driven) 9M 02: 1816 m m interest-guar. 766 m unit-linked 9M 01: m 299 m interest-guar. 931 m unit-linked 9M 03: m m interest-guar. 622 m unit-linked 9M 03: 95 % Belgium 9M 03: 5% Central Europe Premiums ytd 9 % organic growth
Results third Quarter Insurance, investment income 9M 029M 03 Interest, dividend, rent % Capital gains on shares (*) % Total % Suffering from low bond yields (*) incl. write-back from provision for financial risk (15m in ‘03)and excl. value adj. for unit-linked products
Results third Quarter Insurance, non-recurring items In m EUR3Q 039M 03 Non-recurring result Value adjustments, shares Transfer from equalization reserve-92 Non-recurring gains on securities-122 Transfer to provision for financial risks7-115 Other-2-8 Total non-recurring result Value adjustments on shares offset by non-recurring income Provision for financial risks, balance : 100 m EUR
Results third Quarter Interim results at 30 Sep 2003 Highlights Outlook Performance, insurance Performance, banking
Results third Quarter Profit outlook Interest rate environment and general financial climate have improved. Economic outlook is more favourable. On the other hand, further loan losses in 4Q cannot be ruled out (credit review, Poland). Profit ‘03 expectation : at least the ’02 level (based on current information and assumption of stable stock market)
2003 Additional information
Results third Quarter Year-to-date results, detailed overview m EUR 9M 029M 03 %% Organic % Gross operating income % - banking % - insurance %- 3% Administrative expenses % - banking % - insurance %+ 7% Operating result %- 5% - banking %- 4% - insurance % Loan loss provisions Value adjust., non-recurring, extraordinary and other results Pre-tax profit %- 4%- 3% Taxes Minority interests Net profit %
Results third Quarter Contribution per business, year-to-date Group result : 3/4 from banking, 1/4 from insurance +20% -2% Net profit in m EUR ROE banking : 11.1% ROE insurance : 16.3% ROE Group: 13.2%
Results third Quarter Year-To-Date Highlights In banking : high commission income (y-o-y +16%) and in 3Q strongly improving interest income. In insurance : high premium volume (y-o-y + 11%), but pressure on investment income. Zero cost growth y.o.y. In banking : cost level down 1%. Strong technical result in non-life : combined ratio 95.4% (excl. reinsurance : 93.8%). Relatively high loan loss provisions (425 m). Value impairments on shares (100 m, but offset). Solid solvency : 8.6% (Tier 1 - bank) and 318% (insurance)
Results third Quarter Main changes in scope of consolidation Impact (*) CSOB Insurance NLB Bank Full consolidation, retroactively to 1Q Equity method -0.4% +0.1% Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q Ergo Insurance Krefima Bank Full consolidation Deconsolidation (previously full consolidation) (*) Impact on gross operating income Limited net impact of changes in consolidation (full consolidation, previously equity method) Q Warta Insurance EXPECTEDEXPECTED
Results third Quarter Group, key performance ratios Sep 02Dec 02Sep 03 Cost / income, banking64.1%65.2% Combined ratio, insurance (*) 95.2%101.4%93.8% Solvency (Tier 1), banking8.3%8.8%8.6% Solvency, insurance (**) 305%320%318% Return on equity12.3%12.7%13.2% Growth in EPS (y-o-y)+0%+1%+15% (*) Excluding reinsurance (**) Including unrealized gains Getting closer to strategic objectives
Results third Quarter Areas of activity, profit contribution (*) Profit excluding minority interests Profit contribution (*) year-to-date Activitym EUR % ROACHeadlines Retail, Belgium328 m 30%15% - Strong commission and premium income - Improving interest margin (2.1% in 3Q) - Cost reduction in banking ( 5% y-o-y) - Low loan losses (16 bp/RWA) and low combined ratio P&C (92 %) Central Europe: - banking in CR/SR - banking in Hungary - banking in Poland -28 m 112 m 23 m -138 m - + 3% + 77% - - 2% +18% + 19% - - Strong commissions and zero cost growth in CR (although margin pressure and fewer one-offs) - Strong income growth in banking in Hungary - High loan losses in Poland (195 m) - Improvement in insurance (though limited scale) Asset management84 m 4 %- - AUM up 5% vs Dec 02 Corporate services139 m 11%9%9% - Successful cost control - Less one-off income (CLOs) and higher loan losses (US energy) - R/I out of the red Market activities117 m 51%14% - Fixed income: very strong - Equities: still weak but cost-cutting successful - Derivatives: satfisfactory (suffered from MtM) Strong rebound in Belgian retail. High adverse impact of Poland.
Results third Quarter Interest spreads in Belgium, banking Going forward, increasing market rates could fuel top-line growth Interest margin Spread on new loans
Results third Quarter Economic outlook Popu- lation Real GDP growth 10-y interest rate CPI change e2004eDec 03eSep 04e e2004e Belgium10 m0.7%0.8%1.9%4.4%4.8%1.6%1.5%1.1% Czech Republic 10 m2.0%3.0%3.9%4.5%5.0%1.8%0.0%2.2% Slovak Republic 5 m4.4%3.5%4.2%5.1%5.4%3.3%8.2%6.0% Hungary10 m3.2%2.0%3.0%7.3%7.5%5.3%4.5%6.5% Poland38 m1.3%3.1%4.0%5.0%5.8%1.9%0.6%2.2% Source : KBC Asset Management, November 2003
Results third Quarter Value adjustments, investment portfolio Significant value adjustments in ‘02 and in 1Q 03 (offset in insurance business by non-recurring result) DJ Eurostoxx
Results third Quarter Unrealized gains, investment portfolio In m EURDec 02Sep 03 % Banking book %+ 2 % Bonds Shares Insurance book % Bonds Shares Real estate10199 Unrealized gains increasing, driven by upward trend of stock markets Balance of gains and losses
Results third Quarter Solvency 8.8% 8.6% 504% 320% 318% Banking business (Tier 1) Insurance business (Solvency margin) 564 m 668 m 612 m m Solid solvency in both banking and insurance (no double gearing and no DAC) In m EUR
Results third Quarter Solvency KBC Bank 1993 / 2003 mandatory convertible bond Conversion, 30 Nov 2003 : Capital increase: ca. 8.1 m new shares (*) (not dividend-entitled for ’03) Impact : Lower interest charges (12.2% for ‘03) EPS ‘04 dilution, ca. 1.5 pp Tier 1: ca bp Free float : ca. + 1% (*) Based on outstanding MCB at 30 Sept. 2003
2003 KBC Bank & Insurance Group Investor Relations Office - tel.: Press Office - tel.: /