Overview of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM) Presentation to the SWMCB Tina Patton July 22, 2009

Stakeholder Process Developed based on recommendations from the Minnesota Climate Change Advisory Group (MCCAG) MCCAG was formed as an advisory group to the Governor and legislature to provide recommendations for meeting the requirements of the Next Generation Energy Act of 2007 (NGEA) NGEA Goals: Annual greenhouse-gas emissions are to drop 15% by 2015, 30% by 2025, 80% by 2050 (compared to 2005 base)

Centroid Goals MCCAGs Findings: Based on its share of and potential for GHG emission reductions, solid waste is responsible for 75 million MTCO 2 e Metro Centroid (6 SWMCB Counties, Scott, and Wright) goal is a GHG reduction of approx. 44 million MTCO 2 e Duluth Centroid 3.3 MMTCO 2 e (6.3%) Rochester Centroid 2 MMTCO 2 e (3.8%) St. Cloud Centroid 3.7 MMTCO 2 e (7.0%) Metro Centroid 43.5 MMTCO 2 e (82.9%)

WARM Model WARM is a computer model that estimates GHG and energy savings The model requires the user to input the estimated changes in types and quantities of waste by waste management method Results tell us which materials and waste management methods result in the greatest reductions in GHG emissions and energy use It is a life cycle model with boundaries beyond just waste management

WARM Model Results In general, greatest GHG reduction potential can be found by following the order of preference in the waste management hierarchy Reduction of waste saves more GHG and energy than any management method Recycling high energy items such as Aluminum, Ferrous, and Copper saves lots of energy and GHG WTE both reduces methane and generates power Methane from landfills is a large GHG source

Modeling Strategies Using model as a guide to understanding impacts of system changes Where model does not help, centroid and work groups will need to discuss reasonable assumptions on impacts of strategies based on what we know already

WARM Model Limitations Some limitations on how materials can be managed Models MSW only Uses national averages in some cases (e.g. distances from facilities to markets, WTE efficiencies) Continues to be improved