Available soil water- a practical communication tool in southern NSW Michael Cashen Agricultural Climatologist Acknowledge.

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Presentation transcript:

Available soil water- a practical communication tool in southern NSW Michael Cashen Agricultural Climatologist Acknowledge contribution from John Smith, Ian Hume & Sam North

My Talk  Case study site - Deniliquin  Explore rainfall  Links with research outcomes ~ SEACI phase 1  Comparing periods & using PAW  The future 2030 ~ unseen risks?

Case study: Deniliquin

Deniliquin yearly rainfall Federation drought ( ) World War II ( ) ‘Big Dry’ ( ) Data:

Autumn outside the box Data:

Estimated PAW ETc Wheat: Median monthly pan * Pan factor (0.72) * Crop Coefficient Kc Pan factor variant ~Sam North Pers Comm, 20 th June 2011

A tale of two periods -rainfall Data:

A tale of two periods- ETc (Wheat) Data:

A visual comparison of PAW Data:

Quantifying the difference Data:

The future? Data:

What about autumn? Given the findings of SEACI phase 1 (i.e. link between STR and temperature), are we at risk of under estimating the impact of CC ?

Conclusion - Autumn rainfall in decline since mid 80’s. - Strong linkage to intensification of the Subtropical Ridge (SEACI Phase 1) - Autumn decline reducing growing season length and Plant Available Water for growth in spring - Current CSIRO/BoM 2007 projections not indicating significant autumn declines

References CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007,Climate Change in Australian, Technical report CSIRO (2010) Climate variability and change in south-eastern Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 1 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2007, Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia, CAWCR Technical Report No. 026

Deniliquin seasonal rainfall trends Data:

Monthly median rainfall Data: