5 th Annual Conference & Exhibition 4 th December 2014 “The Guest Experience” Welcome The 5 th ASAP Annual Conference and Exhibition.

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Presentation transcript:

5 th Annual Conference & Exhibition 4 th December 2014 “The Guest Experience” Welcome The 5 th ASAP Annual Conference and Exhibition

savills.com 4 th December 2014 Marie Hickey & James Bradley, Savills Established or evolving? Serviced Apartment property investment

How is supply evolving?

The sector is still tiny compared to hotels... Source: AMPM; Savills 3% of hotel bed supply

...but new openings picking up pace Source: AMPM; Savills

London still the primary focus for expansion... Source: AMPM; Savills

...but regional cities reporting significant proportional increases... Birmingham +66% Aberdeen Aberdeen +60% Edinburgh Edinburgh +40%

...with room for further expansion

But, categorisation along brand & operator lines remains difficult

Large investors and lenders are finally getting on board

So, who is getting on board?  Types of Investors  PE firms, overseas investors, owner operators, UK prop-cos, funds.  Types of Lenders  UK and overseas banks and other lenders.  What they require  Market Value  Fair maintainable profit (debt serviceability)  Sustainability  Reinvestment  A plan! (and an exit)

Deals, deals, deals 8 India Street London Vendor: Marldon Purchaser: Aviva Price: c£10.3m (£500k per unit) Staybridge Suites Stratford Vendor: Patron Capital/ Cycas Hotels Purchaser: Overseas Investor Price: c£31m (£190k per unit) Whitechapel & Stratford London Vendor: Union Hanover/ EquityBridge Purchaser: Available Guide: £110M (£310k per unit) Staycity Deptford, London Vendor: Galliard Homes Purchaser: LaSalle Investment Price: c£9.5m (£100k per unit) Staybridge Suites Newcastle Vendor: Westmont Purchaser: Available Guide: £110M (£310k per unit)

Increasing investment in the sector...  The Positives  Transparent environment  Improving market  Demand drivers  The Challenges  Understanding the concept  Market presence  The Hurdles 1.Knowledge 2.Market dynamics 3.Operations

Increasing investment in the sector... 1.Knowledge  Industry data  Research  Transactions 2.Market Dynamics  Branding  Segmentation  M&As and investment 3.Operations  Clear demand  Alternative uses & planning clarity  Sensitivity analyses & stabilised trade

Future evolution  Consolidation and improved branding  Deregulation Bill – is it a threat?  Investors/lenders seeing the sector more akin to hotels  Yields moving more in line with hotels, but dependent on covenant  Lack of institutional grade stock for investment – this will change as development picks up

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com ASAP Annual Conference Industry Update Elizabeth Winkle Managing Director ETC Venues London 4 th December 2014

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Our Coverage +50,000 Hotels / Million Hotel Rooms

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Agenda Global Overview (Industry) Global Overview (Serviced Apartments) Spotlight United Kingdom (Serviced Apartments) Pipeline (Industry) Forecast (Industry)

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Up, Up and Away # of international tourist arrivals in millions; Global & Europe Source: UNWTO 503 Europe 2011 Global Europe 2012 Global Europe 2013 Global Europe 2014 f Global

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Global Demand is Supply Supply & Demand % Change, October 2014 YTD

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.comSTR Global 2014www.strglobal.com RevPAR on the Rise YTD October 2014; RevPAR % chg, Constant Currency +8.3%+5.1% +4.5% +0.9% +5.4%+15.4% +14.3% +2.7%

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Europe: Occupancy Growth December 2012 Occupancy Percent Change January 2009 – October 2014

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Europe Rate Recovery in 2014 Room Rate Percent Change January 2009 – October 2014

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Global Overview Serviced Apartments

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Serviced Apartments: Occupancy on the Rise October 2014 YTD, % Chg DXB 1.4% UK 2.4% CN 7.4% AUS 2.5% DE 4.6%

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Serviced Apartments: Mixed ADR Results October 2014 YTD, % Chg DXB $ 8.4% UK £ -3.3% CN ¥ 1.5% AUS $ 1.6% DE € -1.1%

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com United Kingdom Serviced Apartments

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Serviced Apartments: Post GFC Evolution January/September 2008 – October 2014, 12 Month Moving Average LondonRegional UK October 2014 Sept 2008

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Hotels: London Growing; Regional UK Recovering January 2007 – October 2014, 12 Month Moving Average LondonRegional UK Growth Recession Recovery

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Serviced Apartments: RevPAR Growth (mostly) October 2014 YTD, RevPAR % -5.0% London 8.0% Manchester 7.0% Edinburgh -9.8% Birmingham -1.0% Total UK 7.6% Regional UK Liverpool 12.3% 16.2% Scotland

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Serviced Apartments: ADR & Occ Increasing October 2014 YTD, in local currency

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Serviced Apartments: Outstanding Occupancy; Strong Rate October 2014 YTD

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Pipeline (Industry)

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Supply Growth is Largely Immaterial Pipeline % by Subcontinent 5.0% 1.5%10.2%2.0%3.2% Northern Western Southern Eastern Europe

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Forecast (Industry)

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com Positive GDP Forecast, Continued Demand Growth Expected Quarterly 2004 – 2016F (GDP Source: Oxford Economics)

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com ADR Growth Expected in 2015, Correction for Glasgow Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, November 2014 edition

STR Global 2014www.strglobal.com STR Global You can follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied. ASAP Conference Elizabeth Winkle +44 (0)

Geoff Ramm Celebrity Service, OMG Marketing Speaker & Author 5 th Annual Conference & Exhibition 4 th December 2014 “The Guest Experience”

5 th Annual Conference & Exhibition 4 th December 2014 “The Guest Experience” THE CORPORATE TRAVELLER ARE WE DELIVERING? Speakers: Samatha van LeeuwenPwC Tom StoneSirius Travel Management Christabelle Morgan - DesouchesAparthotels Adagio (Accor) Moderator: Gill UptonThe Business Travel Magazine

5 th Annual Conference & Exhibition 4 th December 2014 “The Guest Experience” TECHNOLOGY: DIGITAL NATIVE OR TOURIST? HOW MUCH DO WE KNOW AND HOW WILL TODAY’S DIGITAL EXPERTS HELP TRANSFORM THE GUEST EXPERIENCE? Speakers: Antonio SilanoFlock Associates Ltd Philip von DitfurthHetras Terry ReedLinsar Roger Matthews BSkyB, The Cloud Simon IL’AnsonSwisscom Hospitality Services Jason GristBooking.com Moderator: Max Thorne CL Serviced Apartments

5 th Annual Conference & Exhibition 4 th December 2014 “The Guest Experience” ARE YOU IN AN A RELATIONSHIP WITH AN AGENT? IT’S TIME TO CONSIDER THE ‘VIRTUAL’ VERSUS THE ‘PHYSICAL‘ AND BUILD OUT YOUR’NON-NEGOTIABLES’ Speakers: Roman Bach9flats Marcus AngellSilverDoor Andrew HopgoodInterdean Relocation Services Lynn PutnamThe Apartment Service Moderator: David KurkFreelance presenter, Facilitator & After dinner speaker

5 th Annual Conference & Exhibition 4 th December 2014 “The Guest Experience” The 5 th ASAP Annual Conference and Exhibition

5 th Annual Conference & Exhibition 4 th December 2014 “The Guest Experience” That’s it! The 5 th ASAP Annual Conference and Exhibition