Why Model? By the way …. A model is a representation, abstraction, or a simulation of a phenomenon that we are trying to understand.

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Presentation transcript:

Why Model? By the way …. A model is a representation, abstraction, or a simulation of a phenomenon that we are trying to understand.

Why Model? Necessity To Make Better Decisions Gain Better Insight Aid to Presentations / Communication Support Intuition

Why is modeling a necessity? Limitations of the human mind (can process only a few issues). Difficult to keep track of several variables at a time. Modeling is a small effort compared to the magnitude of the outcome. Need to generate values of outcome to be able to evaluate various choices (decisions).

Can models help make better decisions? Many relevant facts accounted for.. Impact of each variable (on outcome) can be measured. Many relationships among variables can be made explicit. Can look into longer time frames (planning) Can perform sensitivity and goal-seeking analyses.

Can models improve insight into phenomenon? Complexity seems manageable. Learn structure of the phenomenon / situation. Understand the anatomy of the problem. Extend understanding to other similar domains. Improves confidence.

Aid to presentations / communication Beliefs about relationships made explicit. Means to test assumptions / beliefs. Demonstrate more comprehensive understanding. Lead more structured discussions, be able to address specifics in the context of the “big picture” As a basis to determine newer needs...