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Presentation transcript:

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent. Class 4:Global Challenges and The State of The Future Are things getting BETTER or WORSE in the world?

“The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be” Paul Valery, 1936 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

1.Assessing the State of the Future 2.Overview of Millennium Projects and Global Challenges 3.Exploring challenges and opportunities for business engagement related to sustainability © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Are things getting BETTER or WORSE in the world? How Can This Question Be Answered? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

The Millennium Project GLOBAL FUTURES STUDIES & RESEARCH Founded in 1996 Real-Time Delphi Technique-Expert Knowledge State of the Future and SOF Index 15 Global Challenges - Updated Annually © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 A composite index to measure progress  Expert polling via Real-Time Delphi process  Looks back 20 years, forward 10 years  ~ 750 global experts  28 indicators  Updated annually © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where we are winning Access to water Internet users Literacy rate GDP/capita Life expectancy at birth Women in parliaments School enrollment, secondary Energy efficiency Poverty $1.25 a day Population growth Infant mortality Undernourishment prevalence Wars Nuclear proliferation HIV prevalence © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where we are winning © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where we are winning © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where we are winning © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where we are winning © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where we are losing  Total debt  Unemployment  Income inequality  Ecological footprint / biocapacity ratio  GHG emissions  Terrorist attacks victims/1000  Voter turnout © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where we are losing © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where we are losing © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where there is uncertainty  Corruption  Freedom rights  Electricity from renewables  Forest lands  R&D expenditures  Physicians © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where there is uncertainty © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: 2012 State of the Future Where there is uncertainty © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Where we are winning  Access to water  Internet users  Literacy rate  GDP/capita  Life expectancy at birth  Women in parliaments  School enrollment, secondary  Energy efficiency  Poverty $1.25 a day  Population growth  Infant mortality  Undernourishment prevalence  Wars  Nuclear proliferation  HIV prevalence Where we are losing  Total debt  Unemployment  Income inequality  Ecological footprint / biocapacity ratio  GHG emissions  Terrorist attacks victims/1000  Voter turnout Source: 2012 State of the Future Where there is uncertainty  Corruption  Freedom rights  Electricity from renewables  Forest lands  R&D expenditures  Physicians © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 2012 State of the Future Index 2012 = 1.0 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

The United Nations UN Millennium Summit 2002-Millennium Project Commissioned To develop an action plan for the world to achieve its millennium project goals and to reverse the grinding poverty, hunger and disease affecting billions of people © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

UN Millennium Development Goals © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 What are the implications of change for business as challenges are met / missed?  How can business drive positive change? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Sustainable Development "..development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs ” World Commission on the Environment and Development (Brundtland Commission 1987) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Blue Man Group © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: National Geographic, March 2011 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 - Human Capital $ - Financial Capital  - Manufactured Capital  - Natural Capital Source: Natural Capitalism, Hawken, Lovins, Lovins The Value (cost) of Natural Capital has historically been externalized. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Natural Capital Natural Resources= Natural Income= (Ecosystem Services) Solar Income Temporary Solar Dividend= Current Solar Income= (Source: Sustaining the Earth) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Externality: A consequence of an action that affects someone other than the agent undertaking that action, and for which the agent is neither compensated nor penalized through the markets. Source: WBCSD Guide to Corporate Ecosystem Valuation – April 2011 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Ecological Footprints Source: World Wildlife Federation, Living Planet Report 2012 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Source: Wackernagel & Rees 1996 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 Tipping Points - Ecosystem Collapse  Scarcity-Induced Disruption  Regulatory Pressures  INCREASING COST OF DOING BUSINESS © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Reluctant Compliance The Awakening Sustainable Value © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Environmental Performance Social Performance Economic PerformanceSocio-Environmental Socio- Economic Eco- Efficiency Integrated Sustainability Source: World Resources Institute 1998 Sustainability Sweet Spots For Business © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Class Discussion © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Recognizing an Unsustainable System… Source: Sustainability Primer- Step by Natural Step, The Natural Step, 2009 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

First Industrial Revolution Increasing technology increases impact: (e.g. new tar sands tech, or advanced whaling technologies in the 1800s) Second Industrial Revolution: New technologies lessen impacts: (e.g. new solar technologies increase ability to rely on current solar income, cradle to cradle materials cycles ) The challenge is to get the (externalized) costs right © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

1.There Is No Away 2.The Sun’s Energy Drives Everything 3.Photosynthesis Pays The Bills 4.There is No Such Thing As Waste 5.Don’t Foul Your Nest Adapted from: Sustainability Primer- Step by Natural Step, The Natural Step, 2009 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

ARE WE ON THE VERGE OF A COLLECTIVE AWAKENING OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RENAISSANCE? How would we know? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

What did we learn? We rely on Natural Capital and are spending it faster than it is earned Ecological footprints are depleting natural capital which is driving up the cost of business Unsustainable conditions can be identified and using Triple Bottom Line strategies can be improved There is a linkage between environmental and social sustainability Defining appropriate response strategies is a challenge and is still under debate © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

 Overview of the Team Foresight Project ▪ Class Preparation ▪ Skim: “FoodWeb 2020” as an example of a Foresight Report ▪ Read: “The Team Foresight Project Assignment”  We will form project teams © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.