National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director NCEP 101 January 6, 2011 “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

NCEP Office of Director Louis Uccellini Director Kim Montgomery Administrative Officer Dennis Staley Executive Officer Barry Choy Chief Science Officer Lauren Morone Operations Officer Jim Yoe Chief Admin Officer JSCDA Adena Fritz Property Manager & DAR LaDonna Nash Budget Officer Barbara Eubanks Secretary

Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service Hurricane Center Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER Tropical Weather Guidance and Forecasts 26 FTE 46 FTE 5

Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch 6

NCEP Budget Facts Historical Base Funding Note: For FY11 we are currently operating under a CR at FY10 funding levels $105.8 $103.9 $94.8 $94.3 $88.2 $90.1 $80.1 $68.2 $62.0 $54.8 $50.1

Total All Funding Sources: $118.4M+ NCEP Budget Facts FY 2010 Allocations by Center ($K) Center Labor Non-labor Total Other Funding Sources FTEs OD $1,170.0 $5,051.1 $6,221.1 $0.0 8 NCO $8,702.0 $30,959.1 $39,661.1 $1,619.8 65 EMC $7,202.5 $6,082.3 $13,284.8 $6,310.4 52 HPC $6,084.8 $254.0 $6,338.8 $85.0 46 OPC $3,586.2 $153.8 $3,740.0 $120.8 26 CPC $6,339.5 $613.5 $6,953.0 $2,745.3 50 AWC $7,049.7 $920.1 $7,969.8 $420.2 55 SPC $4,425.4 $854.5 $5,279.9 34 NHC $6,504.8 $1,068.6 $7,573.4 $315.0 47 SWPC $6,203.1 $2,602.3 $8,805.3 $1,008.0 48 TOTAL $57,267.9 $48,559.2 $105,827.1 $12,624.5 431 Total All Funding Sources: $118.4M+

Strategic Planning Process

NCEP’s Internal Planning Process Centered Around NOAA Strategic Plan Services Roadmap S&T Roadmap NWS Strategic Plan NCEP Strategic Plan Individual Center Five-Yr Implementation Plans NCEP Annual Operating Plan NCEP Technical Operating Plan Employee Performance Plans NWSEO plays an important role in every step

NCEP Technical Operating Plans Mapping Resources to Goals ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN GPRA NOAA GOALS EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NWS GOALS NCEP GOALS (Strategic Goals) NCEP GOALS (Strategic Goals) KEY DELIVERABLES NTOP ELEMENTS MILESTONES BUDGET ALLOCATION

NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Internal Planning Timeline Final NTOP When Budget is Allocated Performance Measures Goals/Objectives Milestones Resources ($$/People) Annual Operating Plan NTOPS 1st draft Executive Summary Identify Agency Milestones Nov. Dec. Late Sept. Mid Sept Early Sept. Aug. Jan. NCO Review Dec. EMC Review Internal Coordination Corporate Board Planning Meeting

Major Goals for NCEP in FY11 1) AWIPS II implementation/training 2) Implementation of CFS Version 2 w/ inclusion in EUROSIP Multi Model Ensemble and Delivery to India 3) Inclusion of FNMOC model in NAEFS (IOC for NUOPC) 4) Participation in spin up of the NOAA Climate Service 5) First application of the ESMF-based NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) in the NCEP operational model suite 6) Implementation of the first real time global ocean model system based on the community HYCOM (in partnership with the Navy) 13

Major Goals for NCEP in FY11 (cont.) 7) Complete Strategic Plan for the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 8) Provide options for running NCEP model suite on other research computer systems for "experimental real time model runs" and related applications 9) First operational implementation of the predictive space weather models (ENLIL) 10) First implementation of coastal/ocean models in support of the NOS/NWS "backbone" agreement for NOAA providing operational coastal predictions. In addition, need to address Tsunami program changes, NCEP support for NDFD, Aviation support for the CWSUs (depending on OCWWS planning and approval), and HFIP improvements/deliverables (through OST). 14

Challenges 15

Forces for Change Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite SREF NAEFS Climate Forecast System Entering the JPSS era More rapid access to hyperspectral data GPS soundings Higher resolution surface radiance data Models run within ESMF/NEMS Models run concurrently Fully coupled Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications Collaborative Forecast Process ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

End-to-End Forecast Process

Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the WFOs SPC/WFO Watch “by county” HPC/WFO Winter Weather Desks Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD Alaska Desk AWC/WFO/CWSU Collaborative Convective Forecast Product CPC/ Regions/WFO/RFC Hazard Assessment Seasonal outlooks/CTB OPC/WFO Near shore  High seas HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR Unified Surface Analysis! SWPC – AWC – AR Solar/Aviation Products

Summary Welcome to NCEP Service first – but service-science linkage essential for success Collaborative forecasts – team approach will be expected as a fundamental core to our current and future operations We all need to buy into Strategic Plan and Annual Operating Plans and execution