'Peak Oil and Transition Towns’ Falmouth. 11 th May Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University.

The Petroleum Interval

Peak Oil.

Discovery peaked 40 years ago Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average

US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in 1930, Production in 1970 Peak to Peak - 40 years Peak Discovery

The North Sea Peak to Peak - 27 years

Russia Peak to Peak ~ 40 years Fall of Soviets

Production peaks follow discovery. ( You have to find it before you can produce it). Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

Exaggerated OPEC Oil Reserves… Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

World Production Stalls.

No Spare Saudi Capacity… Source: US EIA International Petroleum Monthly Table 1.1, IEA Oil Market Report Table 3, Joint Oil Data Initiative, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Table 17 (or similar) on OPEC Supply, Oil and Gas Journal, and OPEC for quotas.

Gas prices…

The Widening Gap Source: DTI

Peak Gas? Source: UK Energy Review 2006

Exxon Mobil 4 New Saudi Arabias!

Who Said This? “A serious demand/supply discontinuity could lead to worldwide economic chaos”. US Department of Energy Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves. We’re not good at recognising distant threats. Even if their probability is 100%, society ignoring this is like people in Pompeii ignoring Vesuvius”. James Schlessinger. Former US Energy Secretary and Director of the CIA.

When?

The Hirsch Report “...the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking” (emphasis added) (Hirsch 2005).

Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness (Post Petroleum Stress Disorder) Common Symptoms Include; Clammy Palms / Nausea Mild Palpitations A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions Fear Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism. Exuberant Optimism. “I Always Told You So” Syndrome.

Industrial Ascent (Modernism) Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution PollutionClimax (post-modern cultural chaos) Climax Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Atlantis Great Grand Children Agriculture yrs BP IndustrialRevolution Baby Boom Old Growth Forest Pre-industrial sustainable culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent ( Creative Descent (Permaculture)

Visioning a World Beyond Oil. What would a post carbon world look like? What would a post carbon world look like?

1930’s Visions of America’s Future

We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want….

One Possible vision…

Convergence of Challenges Peak Oil Peak Oil Climate Change Climate Change Our dependence on China Our dependence on China Our crumbling social capital Our crumbling social capital

Vehicle Transport – are we asking the right questions? Running the UK’s cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land. UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land. 800 million malnourished people in the world. From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.

Hydrogen? Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen would necessitate; 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combined a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combined or a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England. or a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England. From “The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan

Relocalisation “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

UK Food Self Reliance. "National food security is neither necessary nor is it desirable." DEFRA 2003.

Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

The Modernized Agrarian - Cuba

Oxen Replaced Tractors

Rooftop Gardening in Havana

Falmouth in 2012?

Edible roofs

Adding the Trees…

Building - The Challenge of Peak Oil demands… Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space heating Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space heating Increased use of local materials Increased use of local materials New Local Economies New Local Economies An increasing resource base of local renewable materials An increasing resource base of local renewable materials Integration of renewable energy Integration of renewable energy The Great Reskilling The Great Reskilling

Creating New Local Economies Local Timber Local Timber New (?!) construction techniques to use the timber available New (?!) construction techniques to use the timber available Helps with management of local woodlands Helps with management of local woodlands Ben Law’s house, Sussex

Creating New Local Economies Cordwood Building Using round timber in an innovative and promising way Cordwood and Cob amphitheatre Kinsale, Co. Cork

Creating New Local Economies Hemp and Lime Can be used to build whole houses Very high insulation levels Suffolk Housing Society Hemp also makes a beautiful insulating plaster…

The Great Reskilling

Natural Retrofits…?

The Story of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan Available to download at

Kinsale Further Education College.

Step 1. Awareness Raising Talks, End of Suburbia screenings… Talks, End of Suburbia screenings…

Step 2. Open Space Community Think Tank

Step 3. Engaging Existing Practioners. Step 4. Visioning and Backcasting.

Action Plan – layout. Title (food, waste, etc…) The Present The Vision Practical Steps 2005 – 2021 Resources

Some Suggestions from the Kinsale EDAP… A Natural Health Partnership A Natural Health Partnership Local economy Local economy Research on local building materials Research on local building materials Permaculture courses in schools Permaculture courses in schools Slow Food Town Slow Food Town Looking beyond Tourism Looking beyond Tourism Energy Independence Energy Independence

December ‘05 in Kinsale… Notice of Motion This council supports the efforts of the not-for-profit company “Transition Design” in its initiative to act as “Process Leaders” in Kinsale’s transition to a lower energy future and in developing the concept of a “Transition Town” i.e. a town making the transition from fossil-fuel dependency to a state of energy independence.

Lessons From Kinsale Avoid “Them and Us”. Avoid “Them and Us”. Create a Sense That Something is Happening. Create a Sense That Something is Happening. Create a Vision of an Abundant Future. Create a Vision of an Abundant Future.

Transition Town Totnes The Next Step…

Awareness Raising… Sept ’05 – Sept ‘06

The Official Unleashing… September ‘06 “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Open Space Days. Food, Energy, Housing, Psychology of Change, Economics, Arts.

Oral History Interviews..

Learning from Totnes Past. 1930’s… © Totnes Image Bank

George Heath. A Powerdown Pioneer. © Totnes Image Bank

Visiting Speakers… Sept – Dec ’06. Bob Flowerdew David Fleming Helena Norberg-HodgeRichard Heinberg

Working with Business. December ’06. Oil Vulnerability Auditing Workshop with Simon Snowden of Liverpool University A pilot project in Totnes with three local businesses.

Skilling Up for Powerdown. A 10 Week Evening Class. Covers; Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…

Transition Town Totnes Subgroups…. Up and Running Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government In formation; Education, Housing.

Outcomes so Far… (after 7 months). Solar Water Heater Challenge. Solar Water Heater Challenge. Local Food Directory Local Food Directory The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) World Caf é afternoon for Council representatives World Caf é afternoon for Council representatives ‘ Seedy Sunday ’ ‘ Seedy Sunday ’ Workshop with estate landowners. Workshop with estate landowners. Lending Library. Lending Library.

The Totnes Pound.

“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”.

What Adds Resilience Local Composting Productive Tree Plantings Local Building Materials Local Investment Mechanisms Local Currencies What Doesn’t Centralised Recycling Ornamental Tree Plantings Imported ‘green building’ materials Carbon Offsetting Ethical Investment

Transition Towns… an idea goes viral… In discussion Barnet Barnet Bovey Tracey Bovey Tracey Brighton Brighton Chalford Chalford Edinburgh Edinburgh Haringey Haringey Leamington Spa Leamington Spa Leeds Leeds Liverpool Liverpool London London Monmouth Monmouth North Pembrokeshire North Pembrokeshire Nottingham Nottingham Shapwick Shapwick Existing BristolBristol BrixtonBrixton FalmouthFalmouth Forest RowForest Row GlastonburyGlastonbury IvybridgeIvybridge KinsaleKinsale LewesLewes MayfieldMayfield Moretonhamps teadMoretonhamps tead Ottery St MaryOttery St Mary PenwithPenwith StroudStroud TotnesTotnes

“The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration less of ‘oil independence’ and more the end of oil dependence.” “The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration less of ‘oil independence’ and more the end of oil dependence.” David Milliband.

"with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." "with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." Rep. Roscoe Bartlett