Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft Aviation Products & Services Program Co-leader NWS Albuquerque David Craft Aviation Products & Services Program Co-leader NWS Albuquerque Gregory Harris Weather Forecaster ZAB CWSU Gregory Harris Weather Forecaster ZAB CWSU

NWS ABQ Forecast Area NWS El Paso NWS Midland

Overview NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms ZAB CWSU Forecast Products –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Internet Resources for Aviators Summary NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms ZAB CWSU Forecast Products –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Internet Resources for Aviators Summary –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

Smoke & Haze Obscurations NWS 6/24/ Z 6/23/ Z Mogollon Rim Wildfire Flagstaff Temperature & Wind Profiles 6/23/02 12Z FT AGL

Spring Winds Average Spring Wind Average Spring Wind Noon to 6 pm Albuquerque’s NWS 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% NWS

Rio Grande Valley East Winds High impact on the ABQ Sunport and Santa Fe Airport Stronger events also reach Double Eagle, Taos, and Grants Airports Over-the-top events can cause hurricane-force winds in Albuquerque –124 mph tram base –108 mph Glenwood Hills –90 mph (sustained) Albuquerque Airport High impact on the ABQ Sunport and Santa Fe Airport Stronger events also reach Double Eagle, Taos, and Grants Airports Over-the-top events can cause hurricane-force winds in Albuquerque –124 mph tram base –108 mph Glenwood Hills –90 mph (sustained) Albuquerque Airport * Santa Fe Tijeras Canyon Tijeras Canyon ABQ Airport X 1200 FT drop Sandia Mtns Sandia Mtns NWS

Low Level Wind Shear Any change in wind speed or direction within 2,000 feet AGL –Gap winds (eg. ABQ’s east winds) –Thunderstorms –Dryline –Fronts –Low level jet –Mountain waves –Land and sea breezes Example TAF forecast (nonconvective LLWS): –FM KT P6SM SKC WS018/24030KT –“TS” in TAF implies the presence of strong LLWS Any change in wind speed or direction within 2,000 feet AGL –Gap winds (eg. ABQ’s east winds) –Thunderstorms –Dryline –Fronts –Low level jet –Mountain waves –Land and sea breezes Example TAF forecast (nonconvective LLWS): –FM KT P6SM SKC WS018/24030KT –“TS” in TAF implies the presence of strong LLWS

Thunderstorms TAF or TWEB forecast = TS, then expect: –Severe icing and turbulence –Lightning –Microbursts –Low level wind shear –Potential for hail & tornadoes Beware of the freezing level Thunderstorm season –March-September eastern NM, eastern CO and TX –July-September western NM, western CO, AZ and UT TAF or TWEB forecast = TS, then expect: –Severe icing and turbulence –Lightning –Microbursts –Low level wind shear –Potential for hail & tornadoes Beware of the freezing level Thunderstorm season –March-September eastern NM, eastern CO and TX –July-September western NM, western CO, AZ and UT NWS

Supercell Thunderstorms Looking WNW, Motion NE Looking NE, Motion NE Looking E, Motion NE Copyright 2000 Corey Mead NWS Back-sheared anvil Flanking Line Overshooting Top Tropopause

Thunderstorms? Torrance County Tornado Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3 Photo 4 NWS

Hail Socorro October 2004 August 2004 Sand Creek in Union County NWS

Microburst NWS

Microburst NWS

Microburst & Blowing Dust NWS

Wet Microburst Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3

Dry Microburst

Dry Microburst? NWS

Dryline USATODAY.COM Dewpoints Dry/moist convergence zone Flying hazards: –Thunderstorms –Low Level Wind Shear Most common and intense in spring and early summer Daytime advances east Nighttime usually retreats west Dry/moist convergence zone Flying hazards: –Thunderstorms –Low Level Wind Shear Most common and intense in spring and early summer Daytime advances east Nighttime usually retreats west

NEXRAD RADAR COVERAGE Courtesy of SRI International. Cited Available on-line at: of SRI International. Cited Available on-line at:

Break Time? National Lightning Safety Institute

Midpoint Overview NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms ZAB CWSU Forecast Products –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Internet Resources for Aviators Summary NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms ZAB CWSU Forecast Products –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Internet Resources for Aviators Summary –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

Turbulence Types Thermal Mechanical Mountain Wave High Altitude Thermal Mechanical Mountain Wave High Altitude Mountain Waves on Visible Satellite Imagery NWS

Thermal and Mechanical

Mountain Wave Turbulence Air Force Manual 51-12, Weather for Aircrews (1974) Rotor Cloud

Visible Sign of Mountain Wave NWS

Visible Sign of Mountain Wave NWS

Visible Sign of Mountain Wave

West Lee Mountain Wave

East Lee Mountain Wave

“Jet stream” vs. “Jet” “Jet stream” is typically a narrow stream of wind that exceeds 50 knots, and is concentrated in the high troposphere (~FL340) “Jet” is a contraction for jet stream, but is commonly used to describe a relatively strong stream of winds from any direction and at any level (i.e. “southerly low level jet”) “Jet stream” is typically a narrow stream of wind that exceeds 50 knots, and is concentrated in the high troposphere (~FL340) “Jet” is a contraction for jet stream, but is commonly used to describe a relatively strong stream of winds from any direction and at any level (i.e. “southerly low level jet”)

High Altitude Turbulence Air Force Handbook (Vol. 1), Weather for Aircrews (1997) TROPOPAUSE J J J = Jet Core NORTH

Mountain Obscurations & Icing 0oC0oC 0oC0oC Jeppesen Sanderson Training Products

Icing Clear IceRime IceMixed Ice

NASA – Lewis Research Center

Freezing Rain NASA

Areas of ZR/ZL

Icing The COMET Program

Icing Severity Frequency The COMET Program

Take the shortest route!

Where is the main icing concern?

Southern CA AIRMET

Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

Thunderstorm-Prone Regions

Center Weather Advisory ZAB1 CWA ZAB CWA 102 VALID UNTIL FROM 70N SJN TO ABQ TO 30S SJN TO INW TO 70W SJN AREA OF ISOL SEV TURB BLW 140 WITH SW SFC WNDS KTS WITH GUSTS 40-50KTS POSS. ZAB1 CWA ZAB CWA 102 VALID UNTIL FROM 70N SJN TO ABQ TO 30S SJN TO INW TO 70W SJN AREA OF ISOL SEV TURB BLW 140 WITH SW SFC WNDS KTS WITH GUSTS 40-50KTS POSS.

Internet Resources for Aviators Aviation Digital Data Service –AIRMETs, SIGMETs, TURBC, ICG, PIREPs, flight-level winds, and more – RIDGE-Radar loops and overlays –Warnings, topography, cities, counties, highways, rivers – National Digital Forecast Database –Graphical weather forecasts out 7 days – Hourly Weather Graph –Graphs of hourly temperature, wind, RH precipitation, and more at a point location – Cell phone and PDA weather –Free 7-day forecasts, warnings, radar, satellite, TAFs/TWEBs, METARS, and more –

Summary Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you anticipate weather development and its impact on your operations Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you anticipate weather development and its impact on your operations Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

Questions? Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft NWS Albuquerque David Craft NWS Albuquerque Gregory Harris ZAB CWSU Gregory Harris ZAB CWSU

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Enter a zip code to access a local forecast

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Now we’re back at the middle of the local forecast. Scroll down further to access graphical forecasts

To access graphical forecasts: Double click either of these images

Wave cursor over “High” to view this high temperature map Use red arrows to move forward or backward in time

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Select your parameters of interest and hit ‘Submit’

Cell phone and PDA weather: Top half of the screen

Bottom half of the screen

Summary Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you understand & anticipate weather development Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you understand & anticipate weather development Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

Questions? Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft NWS Albuquerque David Craft NWS Albuquerque Gregory Harris ZAB CWSU Gregory Harris ZAB CWSU