Looking Back, Looking Ahead Colorado State University June 23, 2013 Download presentation at scottlay.com

1910 Fresno becomes first junior college after the Legislature authorizes high schools to offer postsecondary courses

1917 Legislature enacts Junior College Act, extends courses of study to: mechanical and industrial arts household economy agriculture civic education and commerce.

1921 Legislature authorizes creation of local districts Organized under K-12 laws locally-elected governing boards State Department of Education to monitor Creation of Junior College Fund Nation’s first state funding

1960 formally recognized the three systems CCC mission: transfer, vocational and general ed 56 locally governed districts; 380,000 students

1967 Dept of Ed oversight deemed weak Board of Governors created “Bilateral governance” 76 colleges, 610,000 students

1970s s Education Employment Relations Act Proposition first enrollment fee AB Proposition 98 The Era of External Change

Before 1990CaliforniaCommunityCollegeTrustees California Association of CommunityColleges

Community College League of California CaliforniaCommunityCollegeTrustees California Association of CommunityColleges Chief Executive Officers of the California Community Colleges 1990 Advocacy. Leadership. Services.

CCC Revenues

1990s-2000s : Recession led to fee increases, cuts : Strong revenue growth increased Prop 98 guarantee, fast CCC growth. 2001: Stock market collapse 2008: Real estate, banking collapse Time of significant change.

Ruh-roh

State General Fund

Budget Outlook

Proposition 98 Most common. When general fund growing more slowly than personal income. “Maintenance factor” generated. Or, lower of the two: Use if highest: Test 1: Specific percentage (~40%) of the State General Fund Test 2: Prior year, increased by K-12 enrollment and change in per capita personal income. Test 3: Prior year, increased by K-12 enrollment and change in per capita general fund.

Proposition 98 $4.1b suspension

Budget First positive budget since Access restoration, student success, and inflation One-time funds for maintenance Based on a low-ball estimate of revenues “Settle-up” likely to generate more revenue as part of budget

Meanwhile... the world has been changing.

% white CCC

% non-white CCC

Shift Happens. Are we shifting accordingly?

How are we doing?

White Asian/Filipin o/PI Black Hispanic/Lat ino %14.5%7.0%38.6% %14.9%7.2%19.9% Student Demographic Change Since 1992

How are we doing? White Asian/Filipin o/PI Black Hispanic/Lat ino Students 31.2%14.9%7.5%35.9% Educational Admins 57.6%9.3%9.9%15.8% Full-time Faculty 64.7%9.3%5.8%13.4% Part-time Faculty 65.8%9.4%4.9%11.6% Statewide - Fall 2012

No, how are we really doing?

Four Years of Change SB 1440 transfer degrees Significant reduction in “recreational” courses or “lifelong learning.” Drop of 469,000 headcount. (2.2 FTES/headcount to 2.0 FTES/headcount) Limits on community college repeatability. Priority registration (forthcoming). The Era of Internal Change

Enrollment What we know: demographically driven enrollment demand will subside as economy improves, economically driven demand will subside demand will widely vary among districts What we don’t know: how much pent-up demand is there because of recent rationing? could districts successfully reach underserved populations if provided incentive to?

CCC Enrollment

K-12 Graduates Change

Population change by county through 2060

Looking Ahead State’s economic outlook is moderately strong. K-12 graduates 4% lower in than in More competitive pressure from “MOOCs,” more political pressure for online offerings Fixed and accrued costs will escalate as % of district budgets. PERS, STRS, retiree health, “deferred” maintenance Low demand will give “catch up” time. Building leadership pipelines more critical than ever. 40% of CEOs expected to retire in next five years. Opportunities, and challenges ahead with divergent district needs.

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