 “ Everyone talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” Mark Twain Rising Waters

The Hudson: Rival Uses

Threats Dams Invasives Barriers to migration Increascipitation Overfishing Sea level rise Habitat loss Targets

Partnership Scenario Planning model developed by Shell 20 year time frame Focus on adaptation, not mitigation Apply social science tools Factor in human response to climate change Rising Waters Eastern NY Chapter Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve New York State Water Resources Institute at Cornell University

Multi-stakeholder climate change adaptation using scenario planning

Multi-stakeholder scenario planning Rising Waters Participant Interests 160 people to date !!!

©2005 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates Timeline Scenarios Team Working Groups Stakeholders T1 W5W2W1 T4 T3 T2 First Workshop Learning Final Workshop April 2008 April 2009 June - Dec 2008 CreatingApplying 2-4 Workshops W3W4 Rising Waters

Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation (1958 to 2007) Heavy downpours have increased; projected to increase further.

Projected Increase in Heat-Related Deaths in Chicago Heat-related illnesses and deaths are projected to increase, especially in cities.

Earlier Spring  In 1965, Department of Agriculture planted lilacs in 72 Northeast locations  Used for appropriate timing of corn planting  Lilacs bloom two weeks earlier than in 1965 Rising Waters

 Temperature increases Greater temperature changes in winter  Rivers in Northeastern have 20 fewer days of ice cover  No more ice harvesting industry on the Hudson Warmer Weather, especially Winters Rising Waters

 In past three years, region experienced five 100 year flood events  Intense precipitation events doubled in 30 years  Changing salt front in Hudson may impact public drinking water  Flooding likely to encourage shoreline hardening as humans respond to climate change Intense Rains Rising Waters More Frequent Flooding

Scenarios Built on 2 Key Concepts Rising Waters Scenarios Y = Character of preparations X= Amount of preparation Less use of natural systems Lots Little More use of natural systems Stagflation rules Give Rivers Room Procrastination Blues Nature Be Dammed

 Consumer credit issues and federal budget deficit. Rising oil and corn prices  High unemployment: NYC fares poorly  Green tech is bright spot in regional economy  Little state/federal monies for engineered solutions  Tax breaks and land use regulation used as “carrots and sticks”  Development moves to higher ground (north in Hudson Valley) Rising Waters Stagflation Rules

 Local climate will become more warm, wet, and wild.  Increases in extreme weather  Sea-level rise is serious long-term threat, but not likely to exceed a foot between now and  Capacity to adapt will depend on local land-use planning, new regulations of the flood plain, land protection, and smart infrastructure investments. Rising Waters Key Findings

80 Response Options Evaluated Rising Waters

Reduce minimum size of wetlands regulated by state

Distributed rain water systems :rain gardens

Create wildlife corridors via land bridges, etc.

Restore streams; revegetate banks

Rising Waters Top Options across Scenarios

Improve community preparedness for extreme weather and local climate- change threats. Prepare communities for climate change by incorporating impacts into land- use decisions Guide future development out of flood- prone areas Improve resilience of shorelines, natural systems, and critical infrastructure to impacts of extreme weather Establish climate-change-adaptation funding Apply cost-effective green technologies and use natural systems to reduce vulnerability of people and properties to flooding and heat waves Conserve healthy forest, wetland, and river ecosystems as well as agricultural resources because they are vital to successful adaptation to climate change. Rising Waters: Seven Recommendations

Five coalitions Five coalitions Communications/disaster planningCommunications/disaster planning Sustainable ShorelinesSustainable Shorelines Floodplain developmentFloodplain development Adaptation fundingAdaptation funding Greening MunicipalitiesGreening Municipalities Update plan in 2010 Update plan in 2010 Measure results Measure results Rising Waters General Plan for Action

Community planning and preparedness for extreme weather. Examples: Include climate change info in hazard mitigation plans Public access to cool buildings during heat waves Community outreach campaigns Partnership with American Red Cross Rising Waters

  Identify sustainable methods for shoreline erosion control   Require state agencies to conduct flood audits   Remove incentives for non-sustainable shoreline management methods   Share best practices for fish friendly habitat in shoreline reconstruction Rising Waters Resilience of Shorelines

Benthic and LIDAR mapping Floodplain spatial planning; assess connectivity along 6 tributaries; Review regulatory incentives and viable strategic pathways What are the resources at risk? Wetlands, etc, Overall goal: Slow down the waters; connect the floodplains Rising Waters Floodplain Protection

Rising Waters: Preliminary Results: Participants

  To Learn More:   Unquenchable: Robert Glennon   Heatstroke: Tony Barnosky   Early Spring: Amy Seidl   The Rising Sea: Pilkey and Young Rising Waters

“Noah was right. Let's get busy.” Rising Waters Nature.org/risingwaters