EVALUATION OF THE NOAA REAL TIME OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM_ATLANTIC AT THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER R.M. Daniels, NOAA / OPC J.M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA.

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Presentation transcript:

EVALUATION OF THE NOAA REAL TIME OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM_ATLANTIC AT THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER R.M. Daniels, NOAA / OPC J.M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA / OPC

OUTLINE Ocean Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center RT_OFS_ATL vs. Satellite (GOES) SST RT_OFS_ATL vs. Satellite (GOES) SST – West Atlantic: Jan 2006 – Apr 2007, weekly – Gulf of Mexico: Oct 2006 – Apr 2007, biweekly Water Levels Water Levels – Feb – Apr 2007, weekly Comparison w/ Buoys Comparison w/ Buoys – West Atlantic: Oct 2006 – Apr 2007, daily – Gulf of Mexico: Jan 2007 – Apr 2007, daily New Parallel Model New Parallel Model –Preliminary Analysis: Last week Future Plans Future Plans

April Noreaster

RT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SST in the West Atlantic GOES SST 03/02/2007RT_OFS_ATL SST 03/02/

` RT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SST in the West Atlantic Nowcast RT_OFS_ATL – GOES SST 03/02/2007 Degrees C

RT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SST in the West Atlantic RT_OFS_ATL – GOES SST 03/02/ Hour Forecast Degrees C

RT_OFS_ATL – GOES SST 03/02/ Hour Forecast 72 Hour Forecast Degrees C 96 Hour Forecast Degrees C 120 Hour Forecast Degrees C 120 Hour Forecast

GOES SST March 15, 2007RT_OFS_ATL SST March 15, 2007 RT_OFS_ATL vs. GOES SST in the Gulf of Mexico

NAVOCEANO GULF FEATURES ANALYSIS March 14, 2007 Gulf of Mexico RT_OFS_ATL CURRENTS March 15, 2007

Gulf of Mexico GOES SST March 15, 2007RT_OFS_ATL SST March 15,

Gulf of Mexico RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST March 15, 2007

RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST December 20, 2006 RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST December 27, 2006

RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST January 2, 2007 RT_OFS_ATL - GOES SST January 3, 2007

WATER LEVELS: NOS STATIONS and RT_OFS_ATL Lewes, DEBoston

WATER LEVELS: NOS STATIONS and RT_OFS_ATL NantucketCape May, NJ

Atlantic Buoys East Hatteras South Hatteras Hotel Gulf of Maine Nantucket Grays Reef Canaveral Canaveral East NOAA OFFSHORE BUOYS

Gulf of Mexico Buoys Mid Gulf Western Gulf East Gulf Freeport Corpus Christi Galveston Pensacola Mobile South NOAA OFFSHORE BUOYS

Atlantic Hourly RMS of RT_OFS_ATL and Buoy SST for January 2007

Gulf of Mexico Hourly RMS of RT_OFS_ATL and Buoy SST for January 2007

Average RMS for Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Buoys in January 2007 Small Positive Slopes Degrees C +0.02° C / Day +0.04° C / Day

Average RMS for Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Buoys in February 2007 Small Positive Slopes Degrees C +0.06° C / Day

Average RMS for all Atlanic and Gulf of Mexico Buoys in March 2007 Degrees C Small Positive Slopes +0.04° C / Day +0.18° C / Day

° Parallel RT_OFS April 22, 2007 Goes SST April 22, 2007 New Parallel RT_OFS_ATL in the West Atlantic

Parallel RT_OFS – Goes SST April 22, 2007Parallel RT_OFS – Goes SST April 21, 2007 New Parallel RT_OFS_ATL in the West Atlantic

New Parallel RT_OFS_ATL in the Gulf of Mexico Parallel RT_OFS April 22, 2007 Goes SST April 22, 2007

New Parallel RT_OFS_ATL in the Gulf of Mexico Parallel RT_OFS – Goes SST April 22, 2007Parallel RT_OFS – Goes SST April 20, 2007

Conclusions and Future Plans Assimilation Problems in Western Atlantic (Gulf Stream Overshoot and Florida Current) and in Gulf of Mexico (Loop Current) Assimilation Problems in Western Atlantic (Gulf Stream Overshoot and Florida Current) and in Gulf of Mexico (Loop Current) RT_OFS_ATL shows only small decrease in Forecast Capability out to Five Days RT_OFS_ATL shows only small decrease in Forecast Capability out to Five Days Compare RT_OFS_ATL with other SST products including the NOAA NCDC Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily SST Analysis (Reynolds & Smith) Compare RT_OFS_ATL with other SST products including the NOAA NCDC Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily SST Analysis (Reynolds & Smith) Continue Reviewing New Parallel Run of RT_OFS_ATL Continue Reviewing New Parallel Run of RT_OFS_ATL Continue and expand analysis of Water Levels Continue and expand analysis of Water Levels