Tim Copeland and June Johnson Idaho Department of Fish & Game Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project 1991-073-00.

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Presentation transcript:

Tim Copeland and June Johnson Idaho Department of Fish & Game Idaho Natural Production Monitoring & Evaluation Project

Project history Recent results Future directions Todays Agenda

The 1980s Idaho Habitat Evaluation for Offsite Mitigation Record ( ) Focus on Idahos wild/natural spring/summer Chinook (Steelhead, too!) General monitoring –Parr & redd counts, relate to habitat Intensive monitoring –Survival & production at 2 sites

General Parr Monitoring

Chinook Adult Escapement

The 1990s Salmon declines & ESA listing General monitoring continued Mitigation & habitat monitoring? Intensive studies changed to ESU Focus on downstream passage Project data proved very important

Chinook Spawning Ground Surveys Index Area Counts

Spawner to Parr (Hall-Griswold & Petrosky 2002)

Spawner to Spawner (Hall-Griswold & Petrosky 2002) Chinook Steelhead

Chinook Recruit/Spawner Analysis Schaller et al. 1999

Chinook Life Cycle Survival

Project Benefits Excellent trend data set Lots of mileage and publications Project reports highly cited in regional forums (e.g. PATH & CRI) Also some site-specific survival & productivity estimates

Wild Snake River Chinook & Steelhead Monitor population status & trends Measure freshwater production Effects of habitat projects Estimate stage-specific survival Objectives

Production & Survival Natural chinook smolts/female for basin –Lower Granite Dam data Age structure of chinook adult returns to basin –Length frequency analysis at Lower Granite Dam Natural smolt-adult return rate for basin –Lower Granite Dam data –PTAGIS data

Chinook Freshwater Production Stock-Recruit Analysis

Smolt Forecast

How well did the model perform? Predicted Observed After 2003 smolt migration

Steelhead PIT Tagging

Steelhead Tagging Results Migratory Year Number Tagged Smolts Detected Average

Basinwide Steelhead Trends

Specific Migration Timing

Chinook Fin ray aging & SARs Discrepancy between PIT tag returns and scales Length at Age x LGR Length Frequency = Length at Age for entire Snake River ESU Assign returns back to correct brood year

Collection Sites

Fin Rays >97% Accuracy

2003 Carcass Length at Age Ages

2003 Proportion of Carcass Length at Age Ocean Age FL (cm)1234 < >

Video at LGR Counting Window

2003 LGR Length Frequency

Assigning Ages Carcass Length at Age data X Lower Granite Dam lengths of entire run = Length at Age for entire Snake River wild/natural spring/summer adult chinook salmon X The total number of wild chinook passing Lower Granite Dam (supplied by TAC) = Total Number of Chinook in each Smolt Migration Yr.

Chinook Smolt-to-adult Return Rates Smolt Migratory Year Smolts 419,826161,157599,1591,560,2981,344,382500,7001,173,566 Adult Returns 1-ocean ocean ,16820,21911, ocean ,22822, ocean Total ,23543,85412, SAR (%)

Summary to Date Maintain large trend data sets Large-scale empirical productivity models Habitat data not well-integrated PIT tagging for steelhead passage studies Highly accurate population age data Tissue archive from carcasses Sampling not representative

Where do we go now?

Changing Needs Augment trend sites Population-specific data –Genetic & demographic information System-wide compatibility

Chinook Metapopulation Structure

Future Directions Evaluate current tasks & data Analyze genetic archive Incorporate probabilistic design Explore processes & scales appropriate for management Develop collaborative relationships