Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) ABN AMRO Business Unit North America (BU NA) Risk Outlook Process May 14, 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) ABN AMRO Business Unit North America (BU NA) Risk Outlook Process May 14, 2007

2 Table of Contents Historical Loss Perspective 2 Questions to Address During this Time of Uncertainty [Presentation to RMC on May 11] 1 Top Risks Identified 3 What do we need from the ERM-C? 4 5 Appendix

3  The proposed sale of the LaSalle Bank Corporation (“LBC”, in conjunction with a proposed merger or sale of the remaining ABN AMRO group) has changed our risk state from “business as usual” to “business in transition.”  While LBC can be isolated as a legal entity with separate financial statements, the Group structure requires Business Unit North America (“BU NA”) to continue until a final transaction is completed.  The uncertainty over the deal structure and the potential acquirer raises issues around how to match incentive programs to an uncertain deal horizon; how to best retain customers and employees; and how to proactively protect the local interests of LBC.  This growing uncertainty lends itself to increasing risk levels.  As a result, the ERM Working Group has detailed questions for the RMC to discuss (and potentially address) in this time of uncertainty. Overview

4 Key Issues and Concerns Key Issues and Concerns Loss Events Profit Collapse Franchise Value Shareholders LBC vs. BUNA Rating Agencies Intellectual Property Customers Competitors Data Loss / Privacy Staff Retention Compliance Regulators Legal Deal Quality Liquidity Alignment with AA Deal Horizon IT / Access Control

5 Top questions for the RMC External Issues Customers – What has the RMC done to ensure that there is a consistent message communicated to customers regarding press information? Competitors – Does the RMC have a contingency plan if revenue falls by 20% in the next six months? What steps can the RMC take to discourage employee “poaching”? Regulators – Has the RMC evaluated staffing levels to address heightened regulatory scrutiny and deal execution? Has the RMC discussed the possibility of reprioritizing/deferring certain exams? Rating Agencies – What will the impact be of a drop in ratings? Shareholders – How can LaSalle (and its employees) ensure that the shareholders support the best long-term value proposition? Internal Issues BU NA –How will the RMC ensure adequate BU NA representation (i.e. is the RMC too LaSalle focused)? –If the deal progresses with Barclays, how will the RMC oversee the disentanglement of Global Clients and Global Markets (without disruption to LaSalle or GC/GM)? –How will the RMC oversee cross-border self interest between ABN AMRO and LaSalle? Employees –How will the RMC react to whole team defections (e.g. derivatives, payroll, loan syndications, etc.)? –What steps is the RMC taking to reduce the “distraction effect” (i.e. employee apathy, frustration and/or anxiety) leading to reduced efficiency?

6 Top questions for the RMC External Issues Liquidity – What steps have been taken to protect liquidity in the event of a ratings decrease or litigation charge? Legal –How will the DOJ issue be resolved? Who maintains contingent liability (Group vs. BU NA)? –Who is overseeing legal issues from a LaSalle perspective? Internal Issues Human Resources – How quickly can HR implement appropriate incentives to curb undesirable behavior (e.g. minimize suboptimal behavior in short term)? Operations – What steps has the RMC taken to protect the bank against heightened operational risk? –IT / Access security? –Data loss / privacy protection? –Disaster recovery? –Sabotage / Fraud? –IT contracts / Outsourcing? –Protection of Intellectual Property (e.g. trademarks and trade secrets)

7 Top questions for the RMC External Issues Execution Risk –Has the RMC considered all of the legal and transactional steps necessary to “break apart” LaSalle Bank as a standalone entity from the ABN AMRO group? –What risks increase if the transaction takes longer than expected? Internal Issues Deal quality – How will the RMC ensure that underwriting standards do not fall (particularly if competition increases and our loss horizon shortens)? Compliance – What steps will the RMC take to ensure all employees continue to fulfill compliance requirements? Capital management – How will the RMC ensure discipline is maintained? Do we continue costly hedges?

8 Table of Contents Historical Loss Perspective 2 Questions to Address During this Time of Uncertainty 1 Top Risks Identified 3 What do we need from the ERM-C? 4 5 Appendix

9  In April, the ERM Committee (“ERM-C”) requested that Risk Management provide a historical loss perspective with which the members could assess the survey results.  This historical loss perspective should be used to determine whether the average loss impact was “on target” or “needs adjustment.”  Risk Management utilized average gross credit and operational losses as a point of comparison. Losses are based upon General Ledger effective dates. Historical Loss Perspective

10 Risk Outlook: Ranking our Risks Source: Survey of “top risks”

11 Risk Outlook: Credit Loss Client / Corporate Credit Default Source: Finance Note: Historical loss data from 2001 / 2002 may indicate higher average gross losses.

12 Risk Outlook: Operational Loss Business Disruption and Systems Failure Source: Corporate Loss Database

13 Risk Outlook: Operational Loss Clients, Products and Business Practices Source: Corporate Loss Database

14 Table of Contents Historical Loss Perspective 2 Questions to Address During this Time of Uncertainty 1 Top Risks Identified 3 What do we need from the ERM-C? 4 5 Appendix

15 Top Risks Identified  Does anyone propose any changes to this list?

16 Table of Contents Historical Loss Perspective 2 Questions to Address During this Time of Uncertainty 1 Top Risks Identified 3 What do we need from the ERM-C? 4 5 Appendix

17 What do we need from the ERM-C? Review list of “Top Risks” Determine if this list is still representative and fully comprehensive Review “business in transition” scenarios to identify risks and mitigants Determine how each risk should be monitored ERM-C members to discuss “Top Risks” with respective MTs Next Steps...

18 Table of Contents Historical Loss Perspective 2 Questions to Address During this Time of Uncertainty 1 Top Risks Identified 3 What do we need from the ERM-C? 4 5 Appendix

19 Credit Loss Data

20 Operational Loss Data Gross Loss (USD Million) Event Type Business Disruption and Systems Failures $0.1$8.8$1.7 Clients, Products and Business Practices $0.1$340.7$19.2 Damage to Physical Assets $3.7$2.4$4.5 Employment Practices and Workplace Safety $0.6 $0 Execution, Delivery and Process Management $139.1$119.3$63.3 External Fraud $3.4$2.7$4.0 Internal Fraud $0.2$1.4$15.9 (blank) $0.1$0.3 Grand Total $147.2$476.0$109.0 Gross Loss (Number of Events) Event Type Business Disruption and Systems Failures 169 Clients, Products and Business Practices 2410 Damage to Physical Assets 1117 Employment Practices and Workplace Safety 31- Execution, Delivery and Process Management External Fraud Internal Fraud 5124 (blank) 113 Grand Total

21 Risk Outlook: Operational Loss Fraud – Internal and External Source: Corporate Loss Database

22 Risk Outlook: Operational Loss Execution, Delivery & Process Management Source: Corporate Loss Database

23 Risk Outlook: Operational Loss Employment Practices and Workplace Safety Source: Corporate Loss Database