Profiles and Projections Latino Children Today and Tomorrow Linda A. Jacobsen Population Reference Bureau NCLR Symposium October 22, 2009

The Number and Share of All Children Who Are Latino Is Growing Rapidly Source: U.S. Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics

Components of Population Change: Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Latino Women Average about Three Children Source: National Center for Health Statistics

Distribution of Children by Race and Ethnicity: 1990, 2008, and 2030 * Non-Hispanic. Estimates for 2008 and 2030 for Whites, Blacks and Others are for those who identify with only one race. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Decennial Census. In 1990, Latino Children Were Primarily Concentrated in the Southwest and Florida

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics; “Bridged-Race Vintage 2008 Postcensal Estimates,” prepared in collaboration with U.S. Census Bureau. Today, Latinos Make Up an Increasing Share of Children in the Midwest and Southeast

Latino Youth Have Significant Potential to Contribute to their Communities and the U.S.  34 percent of Latinos are under age 18  Most children are born in the U.S. and most are U.S. citizens (9 in 10)  Strong families: almost two-thirds (66%) live with two parents

Latino Children and Youth Also Face Some Significant Challenges  Economic Security  Education  Health  Language Barriers

Economic Security  More than one-fourth live in poverty  Three-fifths (60%) live in low-income families (below 200% of poverty)

Education  More than one-fourth of Latino 4 year-olds are not enrolled in early childhood education programs  Only 55 percent of ninth graders graduate from high school on time

Health  One in five (19%) do not have health insurance  Among children ages 10 to 17, about 4 in every 10 (41%) are overweight or obese

Language Barriers  One-fourth live in linguistically isolated households  Almost one-fifth (18%) have difficulty speaking English

If These Challenges are not Addressed, What Are the Implications? Two Possible Scenarios:  Current risk factors (rates) remain unchanged from now until 2030  Current risk factors (rates) change between now and 2030

Latino Children Will Make Up a Larger Share of All Children in High Risk Groups Scenario One: Same Rates In 2030 Share TodayShare in 2030 In poverty 32% 44% Low-income families 31% 44% Linguistically isolated 65% 74% Overweight or obese 22% 37% No health insurance 42% 56%

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau. Latino Child Poverty Declined in the 1990s, But Has Risen Again in Recent Years

Scenario Two: Potential Changes  Child Poverty Rate  What if it rose to 1990 level of 38 percent?  Share of Children Overweight/Obese  What if it increases by an additional 3 percentage points to 44 percent?  Share of Children without Health Insurance  What if it decreases by an additional 2 percentage points to 17 percent?

How Many Latino Children Could be Affected? Today* 2030* In poverty Overweight or obese No health insurance *In millions

Stay Tuned in 2010! NCLR State-Level Report Regional Variations in Well-Being and Key Trends Since 2000