Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO Robert Stefanski/José Camacho Agricultural Meteorology Division Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch Climate and Water Department

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva Outline Seasonal Forecasts and Agriculture WIS and WIGOS Global Framework for Climate Services Summary GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

Climate Prediction and Agriculture GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) First established in 1996 at a Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event. RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide. WMO and a number of national, regional and international organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported their growth and expansion. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

Existing RCOFs worldwide http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva RCOF Concept Climate information including predictions/outlooks substantial benefit in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change. RCOFs have the responsibility to produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season. Built into the RCOF process is a regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector representatives. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GHACOF Products & Applications GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva www.dmcsee.org GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

User Community for Climate Forecasts Producers use climate information to assist with many decisions: Crop choice Choice of cultivar (early or late) Mixture of crops Fertiliser use Pest and disease control Timing of the harvest Irrigation scheduling Area planted to a given crop (and/or rotation of fields); Timing and amount of tillage Stocking rates. Source: Huda 2006 GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva W CAgM Expert Team Meeting on Climate Change/Variability and Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture, Brisbane, Australia February 2005 2007 Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol 58, No. 10 GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva Preparedness information on which to make a decision: DSS ‘Whopper Cropper’ – integrates climate forecasting, crop simulation modelling, and agronomic information. Source: Stone & Meinke 2006 GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva WIS and WIGOS GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

Current situation: GTS World Meteorological Centres WWW GTS Regional/Specialized Meteorological Centres National Meteorological Centres Meteorological and R&D Satellite Operator Centres Slide 5 (start) (2.3 min) To realise these objectives, WMO needs to quickly and efficiently collect information about the earth, process it, create relevant products and then distribute that information. This is a global operation that takes place several times a day, every day of the year. To achieve this, WMO has established very effective global communication systems along with the collaboration mechanisms necessary for sustaining such a system. Historically, the WMO World Weather Watch took the lead in this communication and associated data management systems and built and maintained the Global Telecommunication System - The GTS. This system maintains a wide area network connecting all 188 member countries and territories, most of whom pass this information along with local content downstream to their users including other organisations such as the private meteorological service providers. Slide 5 (2nd component) This is an exemplar system but despite all its qualities, the GTS cannot meet all WMO needs. Slide 5 (3rd component) Assisted by advances in technology, especially with the growth of the internet, various WMO activities had established their own systems for exchanging information. Many of our member countries also established internet portals to allow easier and cheaper distribution of their information and products. This is pretty much what you would be familiar with today. Unfortunately, where as the GTS had functioned like a library in that there are established catalogues and dissemination tables, this multi system approach bypassed this data management attribute. Thus the GTS system no longer represents all information available. To find out what is in another program you need to know someone or something about it to know where to look for the information. interconnects GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

Goals of WMO Information System (WIS) GTS needs to be open to all WMO activities to provide time critical information exchange Internet should be a part of WIS to allow support of less critical requirements The continuous improvement and adaptation of new technologies in the GTS should be maintained. The WIS should be open to more than just WMO programs allowing partners to participate Need seamless discovery, access and retrieval (DAR) across all WMO systems, including collaborators and partners. Slide 6 (70 sec) Thus the goal of WIS is to bring all the WMO systems under one interoperable framework and at the same time, make the high quality GTS available to all programs so they too can reliably exchange time critical information. Similarly the WIS should incorporate the internet, especially for less critical information. This new system WIS should sustain the continuous improvement approach of the GTS without disrupting or detuning the GTS. WIS should be open to all programs allowing collaborative partners and other specialist centres outside of WMO to be a part of WIS. However, one of the key new functions of WIS is to bring back the ability to discover and retrieve information from WMO. This DAR will allow interoperability with other systems and will be an exemplar component of GEOSS. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

WMO Information System (WIS) World Radiation Centre Regional Instrument Centres International Organizations (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP, FAO.. ) 5 GAW World Data Centres GCOS Data Centres Global Run-off Data Centre On-demand “pull” IRI and other climate research institutes Universities Regional Climate Centres DCPC NC/ DCPC NC NC/ GISC Managed, Regional and Internet Communication Networks Satellite Two-Way System Satellite Dissemination Commercial Service Providers Internet WMO World Data Centres Slide 8 (2.2 Min) This diagram shows how the functional components of WIS connect. It looks a lot like the GTS and has National Centres that consist of our NMHS. However, it may now include other centres where a country feels a requirement. These other centres may be Hydrological Centres etc where such functions are outside of the NMHS role in that country. The Global information system centres (GISC) act as hubs for information sharing and also host the metadata catalogues that will allow single discovery points where all programmes register what information is available across WMO and its associated activities. These GISCs are the key to the discovery and access services of WIS. The next centres are the Data Collection or Production Centres. These are specialist centres that host the information for WMO and create products of WMO. They are similar to an NC but usually have a thematic role or offer specialist services. RSMCs are typical DCPC candidates as are centres such as the ECMWF and EUMETSAT here in region VI. Also in this diagram, see that the green boxes contain many other types of centres that are not necessarily WMO centres but have a close collaborative role or partnership. These external centres can register their information in WIS and can interact with the WIS as a contributor rather than external user. The final functional element of WIS is the communication system that joins it all together. In this system, the GTS and the internet work together as well as other dissemination technologies, either broadcast or two-way such as Inmarsat and Navtex. Real-time “push” National Centres (NC) Global Information System Centres (GISC) Data Collection and Production Centres (DCPC) Data communication network GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) Different diverse WMO observing systems; Need for integration of these diverse obs. systems in a holistic approach; WIGOS – the organizational response of WMO to this need. Comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems based on the RQs of all WMO Programmes; Together with WIS it aims to deliver an WMO end-to-end system of systems designed: to improve the Members’ capability to provide wide range of services, to better serve the needs of research programmes. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

WMO Congress (Resolution 30) Towards Enhanced Integration between the WMO Observing Systems Strategic objective of WMO; Parallel planning and implementation with WIS (end-to-end system of systems) GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva WIGOS - framework WIGOS will be an organizational framework facilitating standardization and interoperability and ensuring: availability of, and real-, near-real- and non-real-time access to, required good-quality data/products and associated metadata; data quality standards are documented, met and sustained. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva WIGOS - purpose The organizational, programmatic, procedural and governance framework will provide: a single focus for the operational and management functions of all WMO obs. systems and a mechanism for interactions with WMO co-sponsored observing systems. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva WIGOS - relationship WIGOS will respect: Partnership, Ownership and Data-sharing policy of all obs. components and partner organizations. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva Global Framework for Climate Services GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

Global Framework for Climate Services Goal: Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3 Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009 GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva GFCS: Objectives Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations, International organizations, scientists and sectors will work together to meet the needs of users; Enable users to benefit from improved climate information and prediction; Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate predictions to generate and provide future climate information on an operational basis; Cooperative global infrastructure to foster sharing new advances in science and information. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

Climate Services Cycle Delivery of Products Climate Services Information Systems Climate User Interface Programme Development of information and products Capacity Building Application of Products Research, Modelling and Prediction Observations Monitoring and Analysis GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva Status of GFCS Approved by WMO Congress in June 2011; Inter-Agency Consultation Meeting on User Interface Platform for GFCS (FAO HQ – 26-28 Sep 2011) Extraordinary Session of the WMO Congress in 2012 to address the development of the draft GFCS implementation plan and establishment of Rules of Procedure for the Intergovernmental Board GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva Summary RCOFs structure supporting agricultural decision making WIS as a open concept to provide weather and climate information to a wider community than the NMHS. WIGOS provide common ground for better technical management of observations in a world scale GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

World Meteorological Organization Geneva Switzerland Thank You World Meteorological Organization Geneva Switzerland